Archives mensuelles : décembre 2008

EUR / USD: outlook for 2009

Long term: towards LQ (1.1034)

On a yearly basis, Bollinger band spread is not minimal and LY is flat. Our stochastic will be overbought next period. A bearish crossover will develop with our 7 / 23 years moving averages. MY (1.1932) is our first objective.

On a quarterly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages will be a bearish A type crossover. Crossover for our Stochastic and MACD was done at the same time. LQ (1.1034) is our main objective.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is wide but increasing (new high for volatility). Our stochastic and MACD are not oversold. A bearish A type crossover could be the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. LQ is our first target.

Idea: towards LQ (1.1034) is not ruled out.

USD / JPY: outlook for 2009

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Long term: 89.99 is our first objective

On a yearly basis, stochastic will be overbought in Q1 2009. The status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bearish non-crossover. MW (103.09) is a strong resistance. 89.99 is our first support and Historical low (79.7) is the next one.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. UQ / LQ spread is increasing. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bearish A type crossover is in progress. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought (bearish non-crossover for our stochastic and our MACD). 89.99 is our first objective.

On a monthly basis, our stochastic and MACD are overbought (+ MACD overbought before our stochastic). A bearish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. As long as M23 is bearish, the main trend is bearish. PW (101.76) is our main resistance.

Idea: below 79.7 is not ruled out.

GPB / USD: outlook for 2009

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Long term: towards 1.0345 (Historical low)

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. Our stochastic is overbought and our MACD will be overbought in early Q1 2009. LY (1.3916) is our first target and 1.0345 is the next one.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not maximal and increase. A bearish non-crossover is in progress with our stochastic. For our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bearish A type crossover will develop. LY will fail as a support.

On a monthly basis, the dynamic for each Bollinger band is very strong. A bearish crossover PM and MM occurred with a dynamic for each Bollinger band. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover. A bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: quarterly bearish parallel pattern.

USD / CHF: Outlook for 2009

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Long term: above UQ (1.3598)?

On a yearly basis, our indicators are always bearish. But yearly close will be above LY. Next year, our stochastic and MACD will be oversold together. MY (1.3783) could be a target.

On a quarterly basis, a bullish divergence is in progress with our stochastic and MACD. With this hypothesis, PQ (1.2589) is our first objective and UQ (1.3598) is the next one if UM (1.2718) fails as a resistance.

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is maximal. MM failed as a resistance, PQ (1.2589) is our next target and UM (1.2718) is the next one. A bullish divergence is in progress with our stochastic and our MACD.

Idea: above UM soon or monthly bullish pre-parallel pattern.

Eur / CHF: Outlook for 2009

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Long term: below LY (1.4054)?

On a yearly basis, stochastic could be overbought next year and a bearish non-crossover could be the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal + increase. Next year, the status for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages will be a bearish A type crossover. Stochastic and MACD are overbought (bearish non-crossover could be a status for our MACD). LY (1.4055) is our first support.

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is maximal but expending. PM acted as a resistance (bearish non-crossover) and crossed MM. A bearish non-crossover is the status for our MACD and for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. LY (1.4054) is our first support. Our main trend is a bearish parallel pattern

Idea: bearish yearly T1 in 2010 could develop if UY is up.

AUD / USD: Outlook for 2009

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Long term: towards LY (0.5374)

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is increasing. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. Next year, a bearish A type crossover could be the status for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. With a close below LQ (0.6516), LY (0.5374) will be a target.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is maximal but expending. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages a bearish A type crossover is in progress. A bearish divergence is in progress with our stochastic. Next objective will be LY (0.5374).

Idea: towards 0.4776 could be expected.

La crise sera pire que prévue.

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Les banques centrales vont continuer de vendre leurs stocks d’or. Un retournement de tendance sur le graphique trimestriel du métal indique un potentiel de baisse vers 610$. Ceci donne deux indications : l’idée de déflation, dont nous vous avons parlé avant les médias, se renforce (pétrole vers 34$, l’an prochain). La nécessité de constituer des réserves de cash pour faire face à une année 2009 qui s’annonce pire que ce qu’il est possible d’imaginer. (les opérateurs qui utilisent l’ATDMF pour travailler ne sont pas concernés par la dernière phrase, cf nos formations dont 6 & 7 décembre).

Or : plus bas / gold:lower

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Yearly trend: bullish for more than 2 years.

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallels pattern is in progress. The dynamic for each band is very strong. PY will cross MY in more than two years. Gold will shine for a long time.

Idea: bullish non-crossover for our stochastic.

Long term: towards MQ (610)wards LM (49.90ng as MQ (44.60

On a quarterly basis, the pattern was a bullish parallel one. Since the end of September, a weak bearish divergence with our stochastic is in progress. MQ (610) will be our main target with an overbought status for our MACD. On a monthly basis, a bullish parallel pattern began in October 2005. MM failed as a support. A bearish non-crossover is in progress with our stochastic. Our MACD will stay not oversold for 3 periods or more.With a next close below MM, MQ (610) is our main support.

Idea: CB needs cash and sell gold.

Medium term: Bollinger bands spread is not minimal

On a weekly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is a bearish non-crossover. Bollinger bands spread is wide. MW (819) acted as a resistance. LW (705) is our next strong support.

Idea: recovery with a weekly close above MW (828)

Short term: rise is over

On a daily basis, a rise developed. With an overbought status for our stochastic PD (752) is our next target. Below this support, LD (698) is the next one.

Idea: below MD.

Conclusion: out for 6 months or more.