Editorial,
Précédemment, nous indiquions que les positions de vente à découvert présentaient des risques sur les actions / indices. Dans un premier temps, ce n’est pas le cas sur les contrats de financial futures. Les cours du contrat Eurodollar à 3 mois et Euribor semblent pouvoir baisser fortement dans un proche avenir. L’achat de put est donc envisageable.
Contrat 3 mois Euribor.
On a monthly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages is a bearish A type crossover. Stochastic and MACD are overbought. Like a bearish parallels pattern is in progress.
Idea: lower for some months.
Medium term: bearish ATDMF pattern?
On a weekly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 moving averages is a bearish non-crossover. Our MACD could be overbought next week. The spread UW / LW is very thin. With a close below LW, a strong dynamic for each Bollinger band will develop. Within two weeks, a bearish ATDMF pattern will develop.
Idea: more bearish than Eurodollar contract.
Short term: bearish
On a daily basis, the dynamic for our Bollinger bands is very strong. A bearish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages. Below LW (94.572), a collapse is likely.
Idea: too early to be short but…
Conclusion: very bearish on a medium term basis if LW (94.572) fails as a support.