Une hausse des cours du pétrole semble être intervenue. En réalité ceci est lié au changement d’échéance la plus proche sur le contrat WTI. Techniquement la baisse des cours continue et aucun signe de changement de tendance n’est attendu. La déflation sera bien Le sujet d’actualité dans les prochains mois.
Yearly trend: not yet bearish
On a yearly basis, MY acted as a support but T1 price failed as a support. Our stochastic is overbought and our 7 / 23 years moving averages are bullish. As long as MY (34) acts as a support, a new rise could develop.
Idea: with the stochastic status, MY could fail as a support.
Long term: towards LQ (22.25)
On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is maximal. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bearish B type crossover will develop. The status for our stochastic is a bearish divergence. LQ (22.25) could be a target as long as MQ (68) proves to be a resistance.
On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is maximal and expending. With our 7 / 23 months moving averages, a bearish A type crossover is in progress. Our stochastic will be oversold in more than two periods.
Idea: LQ (22.25) could be a target.
Medium term (March 09 contract): bearish parallel pattern
On a weekly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress. PW failed as a resistance with a bearish 7 weeks moving average: holds 100 % of your short position.
Idea: use bearish parallel rules.
R = MD (44.9); S = PW (38.4), LD (37.85)
Short term (March 09 contract): UD / LD spread is minimal
On a daily basis, the spread UD / LD is minimal. LD (35.74) could fail as a support. With our weekly MACD, a new low could not lead to a new bearish ATDMF pattern.
Idea: bearish as long as MD (44.88) = resistance.
R = MD (44.88); S = LD (37.85), –
Conclusion: below MY (34.12) is not ruled out.
La situation actuelle ne peut pas se comparer avec aucune autre du XX eme siècle. Continuez à vous baser sur des techniques décrites en 1990 ou avant et vous éviterez de faire des plus values. C’est dommage car à l’aide de l’ATDMF il est vraiment aisé de s’enrichir aussi bien en pratiquant l’intraday (sur les contrats de futures ou sur les warrants) ou sur des positions à plus long terme. En ce qui concerne le CAC 40, nous avions publié en cours de semaine une réflexion sur notre forum qui n’a, semble t’il, pas été lu. Nous vous livrons donc ici son contenu :
Anticipation du CAC 40 à long terme.
Le stochastique annuel du CAC 40 permet de confirmer les propos de Monsieur Fillon le 13/01/09 : personne ne peut dire actuellement pendant combien de temps la crise va durer. En observant le stochastique, il n’est pas envisageable qu’il soit survendu avant la fin des 2 prochaines périodes (début 2012). Sachant que dans un marché avec tendance cet indicateur n’est pas le mieux adapté, il s’agit donc d’une date minimale. L’analyse de la moyenne mobile à 7 ans permet d’estimer que c’est à partir de 2015 qu’une inversion de tendance pourrait se développer. L’objectif de la baisse devrait donc se trouver au niveau de LY. Fin 2014, LY devrait se trouver largement au-dessous de 2000.
Pour remettre en cause cette anticipation, il faudra dans un premier temps, observer le franchissement à la hausse de PM qui se situe actuellement à 4235.
PS : Cette tendance à long terme n’est pas incompatible avec un mouvement de reprise sur le court terme. Si la moyenne mobile du Bollinger quotidien ne sert pas de résistance d’ici le 23 janvier, une reprise serait attendue.
Long term: towards 2400 or lower
On a yearly basis, see the dynamic for – 8 and next…MY failed as a support. 2838 is our first target and 2400 is the next one. Our stochastic is overbought. 2400 should fail as a support. Below 2 000, LY (663) will be our next objective.
On a quarterly basis, our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages crossover will be a bearish A type. Our MACD is overbought. A nice dynamic is in progress with each Bollinger band, 2400 is our next target.
On a monthly basis; A bearish parallel pattern is in progress for 4 to 15(?) periods.
Idea: very bearish as long as monthly bearish parallel pattern is in progress.
R = MW (3489); S = PW (2838), LW (2617)
Medium term: like a bearish parallel pattern
On a weekly basis, our bearish parallel pattern is always in progress. Next week, a bearish non-crossover could develop as a status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. With this hypothesis, a collapse is not ruled out. Below PW (2838), LW (2617) is our next objective. As long as MW (3489) proves to be a resistance, a rise is only a technical recovery.
Idea: with Bollinger bands spread, prices will stop to decline without a new bear signal.
R = MW (3489); S = PW (2838), LW (2617)
Short term: decline without bearish ATDMF pattern
On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal and UD / LD spread is extending. A bearish A type crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are not oversold. As long as a new bear trend for the weekly time frame is not in progress, the decline in progress is not yet a bear trend
Idea: recovery above MD (3225).
R = MD (3225), UD (3413) S= PW (2838), LW (2617)
Conclusion: as long as MW (3489) proves to be a resistance, medium term is very weak .
Un effondrement des marchés actions est possible. Profitez de cette opportunité pour réaliser des plus values gigantesques. Il reste une place pour notre formation du 17 & 18 janvier qui vous permettra de devenir opérationnel. Le 19 cette formation se poursuivra en passant des ordres réels sur les actions, contrats futures et sur les warrants (il vous suffira de prendre votre portable pour pouvoir vous connecter chez votre courtier).
Contact et renseignements : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr
Long term: higher
On a quarterly basis, a bullish T2 is in progress.
On a monthly basis, like a bullish bubble pattern is in progress (quarterly time frame was not bullish when a monthly bullish “T2” occurred.)
Idea: use monthly bullish bubble rules.
Medium term: bullish parallel pattern
On a weekly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress since early January.
Idea: use bullish parallel rules.
Short term: higher without ATDMF pattern
On a daily basis, the spread UD / LD is not minimal. A bullish non-crossover will develop between our 7 / 23 days moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise will continue / amplify.
Idea: use bullish parallel rules.
Conclusion: higher until June or +.
Jeudi un puissant signal de l’€ Vs $ devrait se produire. Si ce signal est confirmé, une baisse sensible de l’€ va débuter. Les opérateurs pourront ainsi se positionner avec un risque minimum.
Faire des prévisions, c’est anticiper qu’un mouvement va se produire si certaines conditions sont réunies. C’est le but de l’ATDMF.
Apprenez à repérer les conditions qui précédent un mouvement en participant à nos formations.
Long term: collapse is not ruled out
On a yearly basis, a close occurred below LY and Bollinger bands are slowly down (Vs flat last week with higher $ / Y). A bearish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages. Our stochastic is overbought. The decline in progress could continue.
On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is increasing and a bearish pre-parallel pattern is in progress. On a monthly basis, a bearish pre-parallel pattern is also in progress.
Idea: bearish as long as the monthly bearish parallel pattern is in progress.
R = PW (94.63); S = current low and -.
Medium term: bearish parallel pattern
On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread was expending when a bearish crossover between MW and PW occurred. A bearish parallel pattern is in progress. With a new bearish non-crossover as a status for our stochastic and MACD, a collapse is likely.
Idea: use bearish parallel rules.
R = PW (94.63); S = 87.13, LW (85.17)
Short term: bearish ATDMF pattern?
On a daily basis, the spread UD / LD is not minimal but is increasing with lower prices. Without any bearish non-crossover for our daily stochastic or MACD, a bearish ATDMF pattern is not expected at the time being (later, a bearish pre-parallel pattern or a bearish Australian pattern could develop). As long as our MACD is not oversold, the decline could continue towards LW (85.18).
Idea: below LD (87.72) is not ruled out.
R = MD (90.58); S = LD (87.72), 87.13, –
.
Conclusion: with a weekly bearish non-crossover as a status for our stochastic, a collapse could develop.
Les cours du pétrole vont baisser au moins jusqu’en juillet (2009). Un niveau inférieur à 25 $ le baril est tout à fait envisageable. Deux conclusions s’imposent : du point de vue technique, le mouvement de baisse peut être accompagné à l’aide de warrants; du point de vue économique, ceci signifie que toutes les nouvelles négatives ne sont pas encore « pricées ». Une baisse des cours de l’once d’or vers 717 $ (analyse la semaine prochaine) renforcerait notre hypothèse de déflation pour plusieurs mois.
Durant la journée complémentaire à nos formations de base, nous étudions quand et comment utiliser efficacement les warrants. Une place est disponible pour notre formation du prochain week-end.
Yearly trend: not yet bearish
On a yearly basis, MY acted as a support but T1 price failed as a support. Our stochastic is overbought and our 7 / 23 years moving averages are bullish. As long as MY (34) acts as a support, a new rise could develop.
Idea: with the stochastic status, MY could fail as a support.
Long term: towards LQ (22.57)
On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is maximal. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bearish B type crossover will develop. The status for our stochastic is a bearish divergence. LQ (22.57) could be a target as long as MQ (68) proves to be a resistance.
On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is maximal and expending. With our 7 / 23 months moving averages, a bearish A type crossover is in progress. Our stochastic will be oversold in more than two periods.
Idea: LQ (22.57) could be a target.
Medium term: bearish parallel pattern
On a weekly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress. PW failed as a resistance but 50.50 acted as a resistance: holds 100 % of your short position.
Idea: use bearish parallel rules.
R = UD (48.9); S = 35.13, MY (34.12), LQ (22.57)
Short term: UD / LD spread is minimal
On a daily basis, the spread UD / LD is minimal. LD (35.74) could fail as a support. With our weekly MACD, a new low could not lead to a new bearish ATDMF pattern.
Idea: bearish as long as MD (42.32) = resistance.
R = MD (42.32); S = LD (35.74), 35.13, MY(34.12), –
Conclusion: below MY (34.12) is not ruled out.