Archives mensuelles : février 2009

Or : plus haut

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Yearly trend: bullish for more than 2 years.

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress. The dynamic for each band is very strong. PY will cross MY in more than two periods.

Idea: bullish non-crossover for our stochastic.

 

Long term: above PQ (1018)?

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is bullish. Next quarters, – 8 prices will increase. Without an increase for next prices, a bullish non-crossover could develop between our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. The status in progress for our stochastic could be a bearish divergence. Above PQ (1018), a new bull trend could develop with a bullish non-crossover for our MACD and a strong bull trend for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide. A bullish non-crossover for our 7 / 23 months moving averages could / will develop next month (see -8 prices).  UM (1008) is our next objective. MW (828.8) is a strong support.

Idea: with an oversold status for our stochastic (early March) a long term rise could develop.

R = PQ (1018);    S = MM (837) / MW (828)

 

Medium term: recovery / rise

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal and LW is flat. The status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is a bullish B type crossover. In last November a bullish non-crossover occurred with our stochastic and MACD. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise in progress will continue.

Idea: rise if PM (946.6) fails as a resistance.

R = UM (1008);    S = MW (828.8)

  

Short term: higher?

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal (MD is up). With our 7 / 23 days moving averages a bullish non-crossover is in progress. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise in progress will continue. Below LD (878), MW (828.8) is our main support.

Idea: rise as long as our MACD is not overbought. 

R = UM (1008);      S = LD (878)

 

Conclusion: towards PQ (1018).

 

CAC 40 : bearish no-crossover ???

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Long term: towards 2400 or lower

On a yearly basis, see the dynamic for – 8 and next…MY failed as a support. 2770 is our first target and 2400 is the next one. Our stochastic is overbought. 2400 should fail as a support. Below 2 000, LY (655) will be our next objective.

On a quarterly basis, our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages crossover is a bearish A type. Our MACD is overbought. A nice dynamic is in progress with each Bollinger band, 2400 is our next target.

On a monthly basis; a bearish parallel pattern is in progress for 4 to 15(?) periods.

Idea: very bearish as long as our monthly bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

R = PW (3400), UW (3716);   S = LW (2750), 2400, 2000, LY (655)

 

Medium term: UW / LW spread is not minimal

On a weekly basis, our UW / LW spread is not minimal. Within 2 weeks, a new bearish non-crossover could be the status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. With this hypothesis, a collapse is expected (this is a specific ATDMF main rule since many years).  But the current status for our MACD is a bullish non-crossover. As long as our MACD is not overbought, no bear trend could develop. A recovery towards PW (3400) or UW (3716) could develop. LW (2750) is our first support.  

Idea: as long as our 23 weeks moving average trend is down, a rise is only a technical recovery.

R = PW (3400), UW (3716);     S = LW (2750)

 

Short term: UD / LD spread is minimum

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is minimum.  Our weekly MACD is not overbought. LD (2844) will act as a support. Afterwards, a recovery towards MD (2989) is expected. If this level acts as a resistance, a bearish parallel pattern could develop. Next resistance above MD is UD (3135).

Idea: no bear trend before early March.

R = MD (2989), UD (3135);     S= LD (2844)

 

 

 

 

Conclusion: same pattern for all financial markets on a short and medium basis. A very special event could develop in March 09 and add a strong volatility to the current one.

 

 

Edito 13/02 : spécificité ATDMF

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Une spécificité de l’ATDMF est de disposer de configurations (comportement de nos indicateurs techniques et de volatilité) qui permettent d’anticiper le comportement des marchés. Il se trouve que sur de nombreux marchés financiers un non-croisement de nos moyennes mobiles  7 / 23 (exclusivité ATDMF)  est en formation sur le graphique hebdomadaire. La validation de cette figure en mars impliquerait un mouvement d’une ampleur exceptionnelle (franchissement de tous les extrêmes de 2008) lié à une explosion de la volatilité. Un événement majeur au niveau planétaire pourrait en être la cause.  

En absence de réalisation de cet événement, une stabilisation des marchés serait à l’ordre du jour pour plusieurs semaines.

Si vous souhaitez, vous aussi, pouvoir anticiper le comportement des marchés ; participer à nos formations. Renseignements sur le site à la rubrique FORMATION et par mail à : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

Cable : reprise technique terminée

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Long term: below LY (1.3634)

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread is expending. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. The collapse could continue.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread increase. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. A bearish A type crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. A new low is expected.

On a monthly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: a quarterly bearish ATDMF pattern is expected.

R = MW (1.5365);      S = LY (1.3653), -.

 

Medium term: bearish parallel pattern in progress

On a weekly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use bearish parallel rules.

R = MW (1.5365);        S = LW (1.3316)                                     

 

Short term: Bollinger band spread is maximal

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is maximal. UD (1.5015) acted as a resistance. If MD (1.4341) fails as a support, LD (1.3667) is our next objective. Otherwise, as long as MD proves to be a support, a recovery towards UD (1.5015) is not ruled out.

Idea: with our M23 trend, MD should fail as a support.

R = UD (1.5015);   S= MD (1.4341), LD (1.3667).  

                                                                                                                                  

Conclusion: LD (1.3667) will be a strong support in February.

Pétrole : plus bas

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Yearly trend: not yet bearish

On a yearly basis, MY acted as a support but T1 price failed as a support. Our stochastic is overbought and our 7 / 23 years moving averages are bullish. As long as MY (34) acts as a support, a new rise could develop.

Idea: with the stochastic status, MY could fail as a support.

 

Long term: towards LQ (22.23)

On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is maximal. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bearish A or B type crossover will develop. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. LQ (22.21) could be a target as long as MQ (68) proves to be a resistance.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is maximal and expending. With our 7 / 23 months moving averages, a bearish A type crossover is in progress. Our stochastic will be oversold in more than two periods.

Idea: LQ (22.23) could be a target.

 

Medium term (March 09 contract): bearish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress. PW failed as a resistance with a bearish 7 weeks moving average: holds 100 % of your short position.

Idea: use bearish parallel rules.

R = UD (45.87);     S = LW (21.66)

 

Short term (March 09 contract): UD / LD spread is minimal

On a daily basis, the spread UD / LD is minimal. LD (39.18) could fail as a support. With our weekly MACD, a new low could not lead to a new bearish ATDMF pattern. With our 7 / 23 days moving averages, a bearish non- crossover is in progress. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. With a bearish non-crossover for our daily MACD, a mini collapse could develop.

Idea: bearish as long as MD (42.52) = resistance.

R = MD (42.52);   S = 38; LW (21.66)

 

Conclusion: below MY (34.12) is not ruled out.

Edito 6/2 indices : court et long terme.

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La situation technique est similaire sur tous les indices boursiers. Le niveau de volatilité sur la base hebdomadaire n’est pas minimal. Durant février,  les marchés seront volatils. Si la reprise observée sur un graphique quotidien se poursuit, il ne pourra s’agir que d’un mouvement technique. Ceci signifie que pour un opérateur intra-day, prendre position à la hausse présentera un risque limité. Mais vouloir se positionner (sur les différents marchés) sur une durée de quelques jours ou semaines sera plus aléatoire. A un horizon plus éloigné, la tendance baissière reste la tendance principale.

 

S& P 500 : reprise technique ? / technical recovery?

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Long term basis: Yearly bearish divergence with our stochastic and MACD => 500 as a first target

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallels pattern was in progress. The status for our MACD is a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD and stochastic are overbought at the same period: a sharp decline is expected. Below 700, the collapse in progress will amplify. 500 and LY (184) are our next supports.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread increase. The dynamic for our 7 quarters moving average is strong and will increase for 5 periods or more. A bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Since the end of March 08 a bearish divergence is the status for our MACD. This is the status for our stochastic since December 2007.  The bear move is in progress for 3 quarters at least.

On a monthly basis; a bearish crossover PM / MM + increase of the dynamic for UM. A bearish A type crossover is in progress for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The bear trend for our moving averages will increase until mid 2009 or +. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover. A bearish parallel pattern is in progress for some months (4 to 15?). Below 700, 500 and LY (184) are our next targets. 

Idea: use bearish parallels rules (monthly time frame).

R = UW (1106); S = 700, LW (688), 500, –

 

Medium term: bearish as long as MW (913) = resistance

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is far away from its minimal level. Stochastic and MACD are not yet overbought (bullish non-crossover). Next pattern for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages could be a bearish non-crossover. As long as MW (913) proves to be a resistance, our next objectives are PW (752) and LW (719). Above MW, UW (1106) is our main objective.

Idea: with UW / LW spread, choppy without main trend until March.

R = MW (913), UW (1106);    S= PW (752), 700, LW (719)

 

 

Short term: UD / LD spread is not minimal

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is not yet minimal but shrinking. A bearish B type crossover or a bearish non-crossover could be the status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are not overbought (bullish non-crossover). With a close above MD (847), UD (894) is our favourite target. Otherwise, LD (799) is our first objective. Afterwards, a recovery towards MD (847) is expected.

Idea: wait next week.

R = MD (847), UD (894);    S= LD (799)

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Conclusion: monthly bearish parallel pattern in progress for some months. 

 

Edito 05/02 : fin de la baisse des taux

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La baisse des taux n’est plus d’actualité (cela coûte trop cher aux banques). Comme d’habitude l’initiative en revient aux américains. Même s’il n’est pas probable que la BCE baisse ses taux, la tension sur les taux US devrait augmenter dans les jours et semaines à venir. Le USD Vs EURO devrait en être bénéficiaire.

10 Years T-Note : plus bas (nouvelle tendance baissière ?)

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Long term: not so bullish

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are up. The status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bullish non-crossover. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold.  With a new high this year, the bull trend will continue.

On a quarterly basis; a bullish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD but a bearish divergence could develop with our stochastic.

On a monthly basis, a bullish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 moving averages. Pattern with our Bollinger bands is a bullish parallel one. Below MW (120.25), a bearish divergence will be in progress for our stochastic.

 Idea: see medium term analysis for MW.

R = above Historic High;    S = MD (120.25), MM (115.28)

 

Medium term: below MW?

On a weekly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress. PW failed as a support and our 7 weeks moving average is down. If prices fail for the next couple of weeks, MW (120.25) will fail as a support. Next target will be LW (110.37). Otherwise our bullish parallel pattern will continue to develop.

Idea: below MW, a bearish divergence will be the status for our stochastic on a monthly and quarterly basis.

R = PD (125.33);       S = T1 (121.8), MW (120.25)

 

Short term: decline

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is expending. A bearish non-crossover is the status for our  7 / 23 days moving averages (same for our stochastic and MACD). As long as our MACD is not oversold, the decline in progress will continue.

Idea: below MW is expected.

R = PD (125.33);          S = MW (120.25), LW (110.37)

 

Conclusion: focus on MW.