Archives mensuelles : mars 2009

Contrat 10 Y T-Note : toppish

Laisser une réponse

Long term: bullish

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are up. The status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bullish non-crossover. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold.  With a new high this year, the bull trend will continue.

On a quarterly basis; a bullish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD. On a monthly basis, a bullish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 moving averages (same pattern for our MACD). Pattern with our Bollinger bands is a bullish parallel one.

Idea: towards new Historical high this year (but wait for the end of Q1 for stochastic / MACD patterns).

R = 128.7 (Historical high), +;    S = MM (116.09)

 

Medium term: recovery above PW (126.62)

On a weekly basis, a bullish non-crossover is the pattern in progress for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. Our weekly stochastic is not oversold. PW (126.62) is our first resistance. Above this target, UW (128.85) will be a strong resistance (UW / LW spread is wide).

Idea: if PW acts as a resistance, MW (122.66) is our next objective.

R = PW (126.62), UW (128.85);      S = MW (122.66)

 

Short term: not bullish

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide. With our 7 / 23 days moving averages a bullish A type crossover is in progress. A bullish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 weekly stochastic and MACD.

Idea: PW could be a resistance (LD is flat).

R = PW (126.62), UW (128.85);       S = MD (121.76), LD (119.68)

 

Conclusion: not higher than UW (128.85) for short / medium term.  

 

USD / JPY : 100 = maximum

Laisser une réponse

Long term:  MM (104.38) = strong resistance

On a yearly basis, a close occurred below LY and Bollinger bands are flat. A bearish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages. Our stochastic is overbought. The decline in progress could continue.

On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is increasing. On a monthly basis, a bullish divergence is the status for our monthly stochastic. A recovery towards PM (100.91) or higher is expected.

Idea: above PM is not ruled out.

R = PM (100.91), MM (104.38);     S = MW (93.4).

 

Medium term: rise without a bullish trend

 On a weekly basis, UW (100.06) is our next target. With UW / LW spread, UW is a strong resistance.

Idea: above UW, the move is a technical rise.

R = PM (100.91);           S = MW (93.4)

 

Short term: higher?

On a daily basis, PD acts as a resistance. UD (100.7) is a strong resistance (UD / LD spread is not far away from its maximal level).

Idea: a technical decline is in progress.

R = PD (99.97), PM (100.91);   S = MD (97.30)

.

Conclusion: 100 should be a very strong resistance.

 

Pétrole : hausse vers 62 si 52 est dépassé

Laisser une réponse

Remerciements à Mustapha qui a corrigé le bug

Yearly trend: more declines is not ruled out

On a yearly basis; last period, MY acted as a support but T1 and PY price failed as supports. Our stochastic is overbought and our 7 / 23 years moving averages are not bearish.

Idea: with the stochastic status, 2008 low could fail as a support.

 

Long term: towards LQ (22.6)

On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is maximal. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bearish B type crossover will develop. Stochastic and MACD are overbought. LQ (22.6) could be a target as long as MQ (68.34) proves to be a resistance.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is maximal and expending. With our 7 / 23 months moving averages, a bearish A type crossover is in progress. Our stochastic will be oversold in more than two periods.

Idea: a bearish non-crossover could develop with our stochastic.

 

Medium term (April 09 contract): bearish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress. Above PW (52.6) a recovery towards UW (62.34) could develop.

Idea: use bearish parallel rules.

R = MW (49.17), PW (52.6), UW (62.34);       S = LW (36)

 

Short term (April 09 contract): rise is not ruled out

On a daily basis, the spread UD / LD is wide. LD is flat. A bullish parallel pattern began last week. Above PW (52.6), a bullish parallel pattern will be in progress.

Idea: above PW (52.6) is not ruled out.

R = PW (52.6), UW (62.34);   S = PD (42.5), LD (36.86)

 

Conclusion: medium term rise above PW (52.6).

 

Edito : ATDMF au Salon de l’Analyse Technique

Laisser une réponse

Bonjour à toutes et à tous

Pour faciliter la compréhension des interventions ATDMF au Salon de l’Analyse Technique, Philippe Cahen vous propose d’imprimer les schémas et graphiques exposés  afin de mieux suivre les présentations; demande des fichiers à :

atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr  (envoi jeudi 19 mars) en précisant la date de la conférence (20 ou 21).

Nb : ces fichiers ne comportent aucun commentaire. Ils ne sont d’aucun intérêt pour les personnes qui n’assistent pas aux présentations. Prochainement, d’autres présentations de l’ATDMF seront proposées.

Contrat Eurodollar 3 mois : toppish / plus bas

Laisser une réponse

Long term: higher prices?

On a yearly basis, a bullish non-crossover occurred between prices and PY (4 and 3 periods ago). With a close above open price, this pattern could be very bullish.

On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is maximal and Bollinger bands are flat. Stochastic and MACD are oversold for 3 periods or more (a bullish non-crossover is in progress). The dynamic for our 7 quarters moving average is strong. A bullish B type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 2 3 quarters moving averages.

On a monthly basis (June 09 contract) a bullish parallel pattern will continue as long as the status for our stochastic is not a bearish divergence.

Idea: warning with our monthly stochastic.

 

Medium term: bullish

On a weekly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress. Close a bullish position with a weekly close below MW (98.509)

 Idea: use bullish parallel rules.

R = UM (99.099);         S = MW (98.509), LW (97.687).

 

Short term: lower

On a daily basis Bollinger bands are down. A bearish non-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 days moving average. As long as our MACD is not oversold, the decline will continue.

Idea: bearish non-crossover for our MACD.

R = MD (98.683);            S = 98.415, 98.

 

Conclusion: lower for some weeks.

 

USD / JPY : fin d’année

Laisser une réponse

 

Long term: rise above MM (104.38)

On a yearly basis, a close occurred below LY and Bollinger bands are flat. A bearish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages. Our stochastic is overbought. The decline in progress could continue.

On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is increasing. On a monthly basis, a bullish divergence is the status for our monthly stochastic. A recovery towards PM (100.91) or higher is expected.

Idea: above PM is not ruled out.

R = PM (100.91), MM (104.4);     S = MW (93.4).

 

Medium term: rise without bullish trend

 On a weekly basis, UW (99.94) is our next target. With UW / LW spread, UW is a strong resistance.

Idea: above UW, the move is a technical rise.

R = UW (99.94), PM (100.91);           S = MW (93.4)

 

Short term: higher?

On a daily basis, PD acted as a resistance for two days. If it acts as a resistance today, a decline towards MD (95.78) is not ruled out.

Idea: a technical decline is in progress.

R = PD (99.56), PM (100.91);   S = 96.58, MD (95.78)

.

Conclusion: year’s end for Japan.

Or : baisse si < 938

Laisser une réponse

Yearly trend: bullish for more than 2 years.

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress. The dynamic for each band is very strong. PY will cross MY in more than two periods.

Idea: bullish non-crossover for our stochastic.

 

Long term: weak as long as PQ (1018.8) proves to be a resistance.wards LM (49.90ng as MQ (44.60

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is bullish. Next quarters, – 8 prices will increase. Without an increase for next prices, a bullish non-crossover could develop between our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. The status in progress for our stochastic is a bearish divergence. A bearish non-crossover could be the next status for our stochastic. Above PQ (1018.8), a new bull trend could develop with a bullish non-crossover for our MACD and a strong bull trend for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide. A bullish non-crossover for our 7 / 23 months moving averages is in progress.  UM (1009) is our main resistance. MW (854) is a strong support.

Idea: UM is flat = main resistance

R = UM (1009);    S = MM (851.7)

 

Medium term: recovery / rise

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal but UW / LW bands are rising. Now, the status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is a bullish A type crossover. In last November a bullish non-crossover occurred with our stochastic and MACD. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise in progress could continue.

Idea: recovery could continue…

R = UM (1009);    S = MM (851.7)

  

Short term: flat

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal, but with a new decline for prices the spread could increase and lead to a new drop. With our 7 / 23 days moving averages a non-crossover will develop today with a close below 938. With this hypothesis, a bearish non-crossover will be the status for our stochastic and MACD. MM (851.7) will be our favourite target.

Idea: Bearish, without ATDMF pattern, below 938.

 

R = MD (951), UD (999);      S = 938, LD (902), MM (851)

 

Edito 09/03 : bear markets

Laisser une réponse

Nos amis journalistes répugnent à parler de bear market en France alors que cette notion est volontiers utilisée pour les autres marchés. Le syndrome Tchernobyl a encore frappé. La probabilité d’atteindre la zone LY soit 6 à 800 sur le CAC 40 doit être prise en considération. De nombreuses personnes me disent : il est trop tard pour vendre, une reprise va intervenir. Oui une reprise va intervenir mais lorsque les cours, par rapport au plus haut, auront été divisés par 10. Regardez un graphique annuel (durant les formations ATDMF nous indiquons que cette analyse est à faire obligatoirement chaque semaine pour les principaux produits financiers) d’EDF ou d’Alcatel qui furent les fleurons du CAC40. La fameuse reprise technique n’est jamais venue. Autre « vérité » entendue : en période de crise, il faut conserver les valeurs de père de famille. Je pense que si vous adhérez à ce raisonnement, il est urgent que vous soyez déchu de votre droit de paternité. Il suffit e regarder l’évolution d’Air liquide ou de L’Oréal depuis un an.

Dans un bear market, tous les titres sont de futurs Alcatel. Pourquoi ? Sans Europe point de salut pour nos industriels (pas de masse critique face aux géants asiatiques et histoire des fromages français (les meilleurs du monde) aux USA Vs le Gouda Hollandais qui se vend beaucoup mieux, idem pour nos vins Vs les autres qui vendent un cépage plutôt qu’un Bourgogne ou un Bordeaux). La solution : 2 banques Européennes, 2 constructeurs automobiles etc. Pour en arriver à ce stade, il sera nécessaire que nos vieilles entreprises disparaissent faute d’acheteurs. Tout ceci prendra un certain temps. Alors si vous avez un portefeuille  et si votre gestionnaire ou votre journal indique de le conserver, révoltez-vous et demandez des comptes…Bientôt la valorisation de votre portefeuille sera le centième de ce que vous l’avez acheté.

Bons anxiolytiques et bons cauchemars.