Archives mensuelles : avril 2009

E-Bund : plus bas à moyen terme

Long term: toppish

On a quarterly basis, a bullish T2 failed with LQ which is flat. But our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, stochastic and MACD are up. Within 2 or 3 periods, a bearish divergence will be the status for stochastic and MACD. MQ (117.48) could be a target.

On a monthly basis, like a bullish bubble pattern failed (quarterly time frame was not bullish when a monthly pseudo- bullish “T2” occurred and LM was flat in T4). A decline will develop when our stochastic will be overbought (month’s end).

Idea: not bearish as long as our monthly stochastic is not overbought.

           

Medium term: decline below LW (121.65)

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. A bearish B type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 moving averages. A bearish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD. Below LW (121.65), MQ (117.48) is our next objective.

Idea: below PW.

R = MW (123.74), UW (125.83);   S = LW (121.65), MQ (117.48)

 

Short term: lower

On a daily basis, the spread UD / LD is wide. Our 7 / 23 days moving averages are slightly bearish. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold. MD (123.16) is our first resistance and LD (121.55) is our first support.

Idea: below LD (121.55) if MD = resistance

R = MD (123.16), UD (124.77);   S = LD (121.55), MQ (117.48)

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Conclusion: not bullish

 

Synchronisation des marchés

L’analyse ATDMF permet de voir que l’ensemble des marchés financiers est parfaitement synchronisé. Un retournement de tendance semble se dessiner. Si ceci se confirme (les mouvements observés depuis quelques semaines vont s’inverser), la violence des mouvements sera spectaculaire. D’ici deux semaines, le verdict sera rendu.

Pour bénéficier des mouvements, relisez notre édito du 13 avril.

GPB / USD : comme les autres marchés

 

Long term: below LY (1.367)

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread is expending but UY is flat. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. The collapse could continue.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not maximal and increase. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. A bearish A type crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. A new low is expected.

On a monthly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: a quarterly bearish ATDMF pattern is in progress.

R = UW (1.5196), PM (1.6463);      S = PW (1.3504), -.

 

Medium term: flat

On a weekly basis, a recovery is in progress. Monthly trend is not bullish. A rise above UW (1.5196) is only a technical recovery.

Idea: nothing to do

R = UW (1.5196);        S = MW (1.3846), LW (1.3908)

 

Short term: Bollinger band spread is not minimal

On a daily basis, our moving averages, stochastic and MACD are slowly up. As long aa MD (1.4601) = support, the rise could continue.

Idea: technical move.

R = UD (1.4963);   S= MD (1.4601)  

                                                                                                                                  

Conclusion: toppish soon.

 

Edito 14/04 : déflation

Pudiquement le terme non-inflation est couramment utilisé. En réalité il semble bien que le terme déflation soit plus approprié. Ce qui signifie que la reprise économique n’est pas pour demain. Le chômage et ses conséquences sociales vont devenir un sujet d’actualité. De nombreuses personnes considèrent que le point bas des marchés actions est derrière nous.  Es-ce bien raisonnable ?

Or : plus bas

Yearly trend: bullish for more than 2 years.

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress. The dynamic for each band is very strong. PY will cross MY in more than two periods.

Idea: bullish non-crossover for our stochastic.

 

Long term: weak as long as PQ (1021.2) proves to be a resistance.

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is bullish. Next quarters, – 8 prices will increase. Without an increase for next prices, a bullish non-crossover could develop between our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. The status in progress for our stochastic is a bearish divergence and a bearish non-crossover. LM (730) is our first target and MQ (662) is our main objective. On a monthly basis, our 7 / 23 moving averages will continue to rise. A bearish non-crossover is in progress with our MACD. Below MM (863), LM is our next support.

Idea: lower

R = UM (995);    S = MM (863), LM (730)

 

Medium term: without trend

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide. A bearish A type crossover will develop. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. LW (791) is our main target.

Idea: decline as long as our stochastic is not oversold.

R = PD (933), UD (996);    S = LD (862), LW (791)

  

Short term: decline

On a daily basis our 7 / 23 days moving averages are not bullish. Our stochastic and MACD are not oversold. PD (922) is our main resistance and MD (909) is the first one. LD (862) is a strong support.

Idea: with a bearish non-crossover for our stochastic or MACD, LD will fails as a support.

 

R = MD (909), PD (922);      S = LD (862).

 

 

 

Conclusion: not bullish as long as UM (995) acts as a resistance.

 

Indices et actions : forts mouvements attendus

Dans les prochains jours, les indices et actions vont commencer à bouger sérieusement. Ces mouvements vont se prolonger quelques semaines. Si vous souhaiter profiter des décalages de cours pour faire des plus-values inscrivez-vous à une formation de base à l’ATDMF. Deux jours vous permettent de repartir opérationnel. Le troisième jour (facultatif) permet d’améliorer votre vitesse de prise de décisions (entrées et sorties de positions), d’analyser les titres que vous possédez en portefeuille (le nombre de titres et le prix de revient n’entrent pas dans nos critères d’analyse, le nombre limité de participants à chaque formation permet de prendre son temps pour analyser chaque titre), d’étudier comment profiter des call / put warrants pour amplifier les gains sans augmenter le niveau de risque (aucune connaissance spécifique n’est requise).

Profitez des ponts de mai et juin pour vous former par groupe de 3 participants au maximum.

Le troisième jour est à ajouter aux dates mentionnées.

Formation action et indices : 9 et 10 mai, 30 et 31 mai, 13 et 14 juin, 20 et 21 juin

Formation indices / devises / futures : 2 et 3 mai, 23 et 24 mai, 6 et 7 juin et 27 et 28 juin 2009.

Les tarifs sont ceux indiqués à l’adresse :

http://analyse-technique-atdmf.fr/?p=46   à la fin de l’article.

Un suivi de 2 mois est inclus dans la formation.

 

Renseignements complémentaires et inscriptions : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

€ / $ : => point bas pour 2009

Long term: not lower than 1.2313 for this year

On a yearly basis, Bollinger band spread is not minimal and LY is flat. Within two periods our 7 / 23 moving averages and stochastic will be neutral. MY (1.2049) is our first support.

On a quarterly basis, the trend for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is not bearish. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. Prices closed below MQ. Below MY (1.2049), LQ (1.1254) could be a target.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is maximal. A bearish A type crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover. LM (1.2313) is our main objective.

Idea: not lower than LM for some moths (year’s end?).

R = MQ (1.3327), PW (1.3736);    S =1.2330, LM (1.2313)

 

Medium term: PW = resistance

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is maximal. PW acted as a resistance. With a close below MW (1.3189), LW (1.2313) will be our next objective.

Idea: close short position around LW.

R = PW (1.3736), UW (1.4065);   S = MW (1.3189), LW (1.2313)

 

Short term: towards LD (1.2853)

On a daily basis, the spread UD / LD is wide but shrinking slowly. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover. LD (1.2853) is our main support. Afterwards, a bearish pre-parallel pattern could develop.

Idea: decline as long as MD (1.3319) = resistance.

R = MD (1.3319);    S =MW (1.3189), LD (1.2853)

 

Conclusion: opportunities in April to close short positions.

 

Petrole : reprise de la baisse pour bientôt…

Yearly trend: more declines is not ruled out

On a yearly basis; last period, MY acted as a support but T1 and PY price failed as supports. Our stochastic is overbought and our 7 / 23 years moving averages are not bearish.

Idea: with the stochastic status, 2008 low could fail as a support.

 

Long term: towards LQ (25.02)

On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ was maximal but shrinking now. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bearish B type crossover will develop. Stochastic and MACD are overbought. LQ (25.02) could be a target as long as MQ (69.10) proves to be a resistance.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is maximal and expending. With our 7 / 23 months moving averages, a bearish BA type crossover is in progress. Our stochastic will be oversold in more than two periods.

Idea: a bearish non-crossover could develop with our stochastic.

R = UW (56.71, May 09), 60;   S = LW (42.18, May 09)

 

Medium term (May 09 contract): not bullish

On a weekly basis, PW acted as a resistance. A Bollinger bands spread is minimal. Our 23 weeks moving average will stay bearish for some periods. A rise will be only a technical recovery. Below MW (49.45), LW (42.18) will be our next target.

Idea: with a continuous contract; without a pseudo T1 this week, more weakness is ahead in April and May.

R = PW (54.68), UW (56.72);       S = MW (49.45), LW (42.18)

 

Short term (May 09 contract): towards LD (42.92) / LW (41.01)?

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide. A B type crossover could develop with our 7 / 23 days moving averages. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover. LD (45.09) is our first objective.  

Idea: bearish pre-parallel pattern could develop soon.

R = PW (54.68);   S = LD (45.09)

 

 

Conclusion: lower if PW (54.68 may contract) act as a resistance.