Archives mensuelles : mai 2009

Eurodollar contract : above Historical High

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Long term:  New Historical High

On a yearly basis, a bullish non-crossover occurred between prices and PY (4 and 3 periods ago). With a close above open price, this pattern could be very bullish.

On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is maximal and Bollinger bands are diverging. Stochastic and MACD are oversold for 3 periods or more (a bullish non-crossover is in progress). The dynamic for our 7 quarters moving average is strong. A bullish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 2 3 quarters moving averages. A New High for the contract is in progress.

On a monthly basis (Sept. 09 contract) a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: bullish as long as MW (98.841) = support (end of a week)

 

Medium term: bullish

On a weekly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress. Close a bullish position with a weekly close below MW (98.841).

 Idea: use bullish parallel rules.

R = UM (99.535), +++;         S = MW (98.841).

 

Short term: bullish parallel pattern

On a daily basis a bullish crossover PD / MD occurred with a bearish dynamic for LD. A bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules.

R = UM (99.535), +++;         S = MD (98.082)

 

Conclusion: see short term analysis

 

Cable : PM (1.599)= resistance?

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Long term: bearish as long as monthly parallel pattern is in progress

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread could expend further. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. A bearish A type crossover could develop with our 7 / 23 years moving averages. The collapse could continue.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not maximal and increase. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. A bearish A type crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. A new low is expected.

On a monthly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: a quarterly bearish ATDMF pattern is in progress.

R = PM (1.599);      S = LW (1.3836), -.

 

Medium term: recovery / rise

On a weekly basis, Bollinger band spread is not minimal but is expending. A soft bullish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. As long as our stochastic is not overbought, the technical recovery in progress could continue.

Idea: nothing to do

R = below PM (1.599), MM (1.7834);        S = MW (1.4595)

 

Short term: technical recovery

On a daily basis, MD is up. As long as our MACD is not overbought (bullish non-crossover in progress), the technical recovery in progress could continue.

Idea: bullish non-crossover for our MACD => higher.

R = below PM (1.599);           S= MD (1.5020)  

                                                                                                                                  

Conclusion: recovery for 2 weeks or more.

 

Or : stable à court terme ?

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Yearly trend: bullish for more than 2 years.

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress. The dynamic for each band is very strong. PY will cross MY in more than two periods.

Idea: bullish non-crossover for our stochastic.

 

Long term: weak as long as UQ (1022.7) proves to be a resistance.

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is bullish. Next quarters, – 8, -7, -6 prices will increase. Without an increase for next prices, a bullish non-crossover could develop between our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. The status in progress for our stochastic is a bearish divergence and a bearish non-crossover. LM (758.3) is our first target and MQ (662.6) is our main objective. On a monthly basis, our 7 / 23 moving averages will continue to rise. A bearish non-crossover is in progress with our MACD. Below MM (873), LM is our next support.

Idea: lower

R = UM (987);    S = MM (873), LM (758.3)

 

Medium term: without trend

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not yet minimal and Bollinger bands are flat. Our stochastic and MACD are without clear trend. Our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages are up. As long as MW (909.12) proves to be a support, a recovery towards UW (976) is not ruled out.

Idea: nothing to do

R = UW (976);          S = MW (909.12), LW (843)

 

Short term: rise?

On a daily basis, a bullish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages. With a decline today, our stochastic and MACD will be overbought. MD (907) is our first support and LD (879) is the next one. With a bullish non-crossover as a status for our MACD, a bullish pre-parallel pattern could develop.

Idea: Without a rise before the end of his week, more weakness is likely.

 

R = UD (934);      S = MD (907), LD (879). 

 

Conclusion: not bullish with the monthly MACD status.

 

 

 

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Vous avez participé à une ou plusieurs formations ATDMF.

Vous souhaitez exprimer ce que cette / ces formations vous a apporté. Le livre d’or est fait pour cela. Votre identité sera préservée puisque votre signature sera représentée par vos initiales.

 Envoyez votre contribution à atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

La section Livre d’or sera créée sur notre site :

http://analyse-technique-atdmf.fr/

Remerciements pour votre participation  et bonne ATDMF.

 

Philippe Cahen

 

Anticipations du CAC 40

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Au vu de l’évolution récente de l’indice, la publication de notre analyse nous semble inutile.

Les règles de l’ATDMF 2007 qui permettent de faire des prévisions restent parfaitement adaptées à l’évolution actuelle et future des marchés financiers. La situation actuelle, permet une lisibilité de l’évolution des cours sur un horizon de plusieurs mois avec une probabilité proche de 80%. Des décalages de cours « inimaginables » sont attendus.

Profitez des ponts de mai et juin pour une formation  à l’ATDMF en 2 jours, le troisième est facultatif. Accessible aux débutants mais profitable pour les opérateurs expérimentés (de nombreux professionnels de la gestion et du trading viennent apprendre l’ATDMF 2007). Tous les participants repartent opérationnels.

 

 Le troisième jour est à ajouter aux dates mentionnées.

Formation action et indices : 30 et 31 mai, 13 et 14 juin, 20 et 21 juin

Formation indices / devises / futures : 23 et 24 mai, 6 et 7 juin et 27 et 28 juin 2009.

Formation personnalisée de 2 ou 3 jours en semaine.

Les tarifs sont ceux indiqués à l’adresse :

http://analyse-technique-atdmf.fr/?p=46   à la fin de l’article.

Un suivi de 2 mois est inclus dans la formation.

 

Renseignements complémentaires et inscriptions : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

Edito : inversement de tendance sur les contrats de taux ?

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D’ici début juin, les signaux d’une fin du mouvement  observé depuis quelques semaines pourraient être observés. Ceci signifierait que le « fly to quality »  sera à nouveau l’obsession des opérateurs. Si ce scénario se précise, l’été devrait être délicat (doux euphémisme) pour les acheteurs d’actions et d’indices.

10 T-Note : new rise within 3 weeks?

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Long term: technical correction

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are up. The status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bullish non-crossover. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold.  No increase for the spread UY / LY.

On a quarterly basis; the status for our stochastic and MACD is not yet overbought (end of a bullish non-crossover or a new one is developing soon?). LQ could flatten.  On a monthly basis, a bullish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 moving averages. The pattern with our Bollinger bands is a bullish parallel one. But a bearish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic.

Idea: a monthly bullish non-crossover could develop with our MACD.

 R = UW (126), 128.7 (Historical High);    S = MM (117.32)

 

Medium term: weak

On a weekly basis, a weak bearish non-crossover is the pattern in progress for our stochastic and MACD. Bollinger band spread is not minimal. LW is flat and acted as a support. The status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bearish B type crossover.  As long as our MACD is not oversold, the decline in progress could continue. PW (124) is a strong resistance.

Idea: towards UW (126) if PW (124) fails as a resistance.

R = PW (124), UW (126);      S = LW (119.82)

 

Short term: flat

On a daily basis, Bollinger band spread is not minimal. Our 7 / 23 days moving averages are flat. UD (123.23) is our main resistance and LD (119.87) is our main support.

Idea: towards UD (123.23) if PD (122.17) fails as a resistance.

 

R = PD (122.17), UD (123.23);       S = LD (119.87)

 

Conclusion: rise (long term basis) if LW proves to be a support.

 

Edito : € / $ faible marge de progression ?

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L’€ peut encore s’apprécier contre le $ mais le potentiel semble limité. UW semble, comme sur d’autres types de marchés, une résistance qui pourrait être significative. Son franchissement accompagné d’une hausse de la volatilité indiquerait clairement un retournement à moyen ou long terme de l’ensemble des marchés financiers. Dans le cas contraire, la reprise observée depuis mars dernier ne sera qu’une reprise technique dans un mouvement baissier à long / très long terme. Il conviendra donc d’être très vigilant tant que la tendance mensuelle restera inchangée.

Les relations inter-marchés peuvent apporter à l’analyste une sécurité supplémentaire. Ceci est enseigné dans nos formations ATDMF.

Profitez des ponts de mai et juin pour une formation personnalisée à l’ATDMF en 2 jours, le troisième est facultatif. Accessible aux débutants mais profitable pour les opérateurs expérimentés (de nombreux professionnels de la gestion et du trading viennent apprendre l’ATDMF 2007). Tous les participants repartent opérationnels.

 

 Le troisième jour est à ajouter aux dates mentionnées.

Formation action et indices : 30 et 31 mai, 13 et 14 juin, 20 et 21 juin

Formation indices / devises / futures : 23 et 24 mai, 6 et 7 juin et 27 et 28 juin 2009.

Les tarifs sont ceux indiqués à l’adresse :

http://analyse-technique-atdmf.fr/?p=46   à la fin de l’article.

Un suivi de 2 mois est inclus dans la formation.

 

Renseignements complémentaires et inscriptions : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

 

 

 

 

 

€ / $ : toppish soon

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Long term: towards MY (1.2054)

On a yearly basis, Bollinger band spread is not minimal and LY is flat. Within two periods our 7 / 23 moving averages will be neutral. MY (1.2054) is our first support.

On a quarterly basis, the trend for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is not bearish but a bearish A type crossover is not ruled out before year’s end. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. Prices closed below MQ. Below MY (1.2054), LQ (1.1258) could be a target.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is maximal but expending. A bearish A type crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The status for our stochastic and MACD is not yet oversold. LM (1.2248) is our main objective.

Idea: a trading range could emerge.

R = UW (1.3877), MM (1.4308);    S =LM (1.2252), MY (1.2054)

 

Medium term: without trend

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is maximal. PW failed as a resistance. Within one month, a clear trend will develop with our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. UW (1.3877) is our main resistance and LW (1.2496) is our main support.

Idea: towards UW with a bullish non-crossover as a status for our stochastic and MACD

R = UW (1.3877), 1.4;   S = MW (1.3187), LW (1.2496)

 

Short term: UW = resistance

On a daily basis, the spread UD / LD is not minimal but expending. Our 7 / 23 days moving averages status is a bullish A type crossover. A bullish non-crossover is in progress with our MACD. As long as UW (1.3877) is a resistance, the trend in progress is only a rise.

Idea: nothing to do

R = UW (1.3877), 1.4;    S = MD (1.3263)

 

Conclusion: trading range on a weekly basis (until July?).