Archives mensuelles : juin 2009

Eurobund Contract: more bearish than 10 Y T-Note?

Long term: quarterly bearish divergences for our stochastic and MACD?

On a quarterly basis, a bullish T2 failed with LQ which is not on the down side. But our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, stochastic and MACD are up. With a close below MQ (117.38), a bearish divergence could develop for our stochastic and MACD. With this hypothesis, LQ (110.02) will be our main target. On a monthly basis, like a bullish bubble pattern failed (quarterly time frame was not bullish when a monthly pseudo- bullish “T2” occurred and LM was flat in T4). A decline could develop with the overbought status for our stochastic and MACD. MM (117.48) is our first objective.

Idea: as long as MM proves to be a support (end of a month) a decline is only a technical move.

R= PW (123.81), UW (125.97); S= MM (117.48), PM (114.62)

Medium term: lower

On a weekly basis (continuous contract),a weak bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 moving averages. A bearish non-crossover is in progress with our stochastic and MACD.

Idea: decline as long as our MACD is not oversold.

R = MW (122654); S = MM (117.48), PM (114.62)

Short term: technical recovery

On a daily basis, a bearish non-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold. MD (120.24) is our next objective and UD (121.92) is the next one.

Idea: very weak if MD proves to be a resistance.

R = MD (120.24), UD (121.92); S = LD (118.57), –

Conclusion: medium term is weak as long as MW (122.65) = resistance.

moyen / long terme : hausse probable de l’€.

Laisser une réponse

Une spécificité de l’ATDMF consiste à analyser chaque semaine les graphiques annuels et trimestriels. Beaucoup de temps perdu, penseront certains, pour des graphiques dont les indicateurs ne changent que quelques fois chaque année. Les informations obtenues lors de ces modifications sont précieuses car fiables. Elles permettent de déterminer des objectifs à long terme et ainsi d’utiliser un money management approprié à la situation. Un niveau important sur la parité € / $ est proche des cours actuels. Son franchissement permettrait de retrouver, d’ici quelques mois, des cours qui n’ont pas été traités depuis un an. Des plus values faciles à réaliser pour ceux qui s’y prendront tôt et des crises de nerfs en perspective pour nos économistes et nos dirigeants européens.

Des formations de base ATDMF, spécifiques aux prévisions sur les devises et contrat sur futures, sont prévues en juin et juillet :

Participez à une formation ATDMF en 2 jours, le troisième est facultatif. Accessible aux débutants mais profitable pour les opérateurs expérimentés (de nombreux professionnels de la gestion et du trading viennent apprendre l’ATDMF 2007). Tous les participants repartent opérationnels.

Le troisième jour est à ajouter aux dates mentionnées.

Formation indices / devises / futures : 6 et 7 juin et 27 et 28 juin 2009 ; 19 & 20 juillet.

Formation personnalisée de 2 ou 3 jours en semaine.

Les tarifs sont ceux indiqués à l’adresse :

http://analyse-technique-atdmf.fr/?p=46 à la fin de l’article.

Un suivi de 2 mois est inclus dans la formation.

Renseignements complémentaires et inscriptions : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

€ / $: not far away from a main / weak resistance

Laisser une réponse

Long term: above 1.50 at the end of 2009

On a yearly basis, Bollinger band spread is not minimal, LY is flat but UY is rising. Our 7 / 23 moving averages are up and our MACD will not be overbought for two periods or more. UY (1.4941) could be a target.

On a quarterly basis, the trend for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is neutral. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought but could be neutral / oversold at the end of 2009. As long as MQ (1.3353) proves to be a support, UQ (1.5439) is our main target.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is maximal. A bearish A type crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The status for our stochastic and MACD is oversold. Above PM (1.4638), UY (1.4942) is our main target.

Idea: strong bullish trend above PM (1.4638)

R = PM (1.4538), UY (1.4942), +++; S =MW (1.3245)

Medium term: rise

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread was far away from its minimal level (when a pseudo bullish T1 occurred and now is expending with a nice dynamic. As long as our 23 weeks moving average is up the rise will continue (and amplify with the dynamic for M23). A bullish non-crossover is in progress with our MACD. PM (1.4538) is our first target.

Idea: No bullish ATDMF pattern as long as PM proves to be a resistance.

R = PM (1.4538), UY (1.4942); S = MW (1.3246)

Short term: rise

On a daily basis, our moving averages, stochastic and MACD are up. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise could continue.

Idea: long in intraday trading if PM fails as a resistance.

R = PM (1.4538), UY (1.4942); S = MD (1.3809)

Conclusion: towards UM (1.6357) if PM (1.4538) fails as a resistance.

Or : hausse si 1033 est dépassé / gold: bullish above 1033 $

Laisser une réponse

Yearly trend: bullish for more than 2 years.

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress. The dynamic for each band is very strong. PY will cross MY in more than two periods.

Idea: bullish non-crossover for our stochastic.

Long term: bullish above Historical High (1033)

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is bullish. The status in progress for our stochastic could be neutral at the beginning of Q3. With our MACD, a bullish non-crossover could develop next period. Above 1033 a new bull move will develop. On a monthly basis, our 7 / 23 moving averages will continue to rise. A bullish non-crossover is in progress with our stochastic. As long as MM (885) proves to be a support, a decline is only a technical move.

Idea: UQ / 1033 levels could be a strong resistance

R = UQ (1030), 1033, +++; S = MM (885)

Medium term: rise

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not yet minimal and Bollinger bands are slightly up. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold. Our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages are up (not far away from a bullish non-crossover). As long as MW (923) proves to be a support, a rise towards 1033 is not ruled out.

Idea: not bullish as long as 1033 proves to be a resistance.

R = 1033, +++; S = MW (923)

Short term: bullish

On a daily basis, a bullish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages and for our MACD. A bullish trend, without ATDMF pattern, is in progress. 1033 is our first resistance.

Idea: rise, as long as MD (918) = support

R = 1033, +++; S = MD (935)

Conclusion: not bullish (medium / long term) as long as 1033 = resistance.