10 Y T-Note : incontournable (la dette US va faire exploser…)

Long term: technical correction or new bear trend?

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are up. The status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bullish non-crossover. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold.  No increase for the spread UY / LY.

On a quarterly basis; the status for our stochastic and MACD is not yet overbought (end of a bullish non-crossover or a new one is developing soon?). But, a bearish non-crossover is not rules out at the end of Q2 for our stochastic. With this hypothesis, MQ (112.08) is our first support. LQ is flat.  On a monthly basis, a bullish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 moving averages. The pattern with our Bollinger bands is like a bullish parallel one. But a bearish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic (and a weak bearish divergence is in progress). With a close below MM (117.21), PM (114.28) and LM (108.93) are our next objectives.

Idea: with the status for our monthly stochastic, MM (117.21) could fail as a support.

 R = UW (125.7);    S = MM (117.21), PM (114.28), LM / PQ (108.93)

 

Medium term: weak

On a weekly basis, a bearish non-crossover is the pattern in progress for our stochastic and MACD. Bollinger band spread is not minimal but could expend. The status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bearish A type crossover.  As long as our MACD is not oversold, the decline in progress could continue. PW (123.34) is a strong resistance. With the monthly trend, no bear pattern could develop on the weekly time frame.

Idea: a bearish pre-parallel pattern will be in progress with a close below MM (117.21).

R = MW (122.27);      S = MM (117.21), PM (114.28)

 

Short term: lower

On a daily basis, Bollinger band spread is expending.  A bearish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages. As long as our MACD is not oversold, the bear trend will improve.

Idea: a collapse could develop.

 

R = MD (120.5);       S = MM (117.21)

 

Conclusion: with a bearish divergence as a status for our quarterly stochastic (end of Q2) The Major financial crisis will develop.

 

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