10Y T-Note contract: baisse durant le second semestre

Long term: technical correction

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are up. The status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bullish non-crossover. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold.  No increase for the spread UY / LY.

On a quarterly basis; the status for our stochastic and MACD is not yet overbought (end of a bullish non-crossover?).  On a monthly basis, a bullish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 moving averages. The pattern with our Bollinger bands is a bullish parallel one. But in May a bearish non-crossover will be the status for our stochastic. With this hypothesis, MM (116.76) will be our main objective.

Idea: bearish non-crossover as a status for our quarterly stochastic: MQ (112.2) could be a target.

R = UW (126.98);    S = MM (116.75), MQ (112.2)

 

Medium term: weak

On a weekly basis, a weak bullish non-crossover is the pattern in progress for our stochastic and MACD. Bollinger band spread is not minimal and UW is flat. PW (124.62) is a strong resistance.

Idea: a bearish pre-parallel pattern could develop if LW = support.

R = PW (124.62);      S = LW (120)

 

Short term: decline

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is shrinking and not far away from its minimal level. A bearish non-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 days moving averages, stochastic and MACD. MD (122.58) is our main resistance and LW (120) is our first support.

Idea: decline as long as MD (122.58) = resistance

R = MD (122.58);       S = LD (120)

 

Conclusion: decline until year’s end.

 

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