Crude oil: end of recovery

Yearly trend: bullish parallel pattern

On a yearly basis, MY acted as a support but T1 and PY price failed as supports. The status for our MACD is a bullish non-crossover. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages are always on a bull trend.

Idea: UY is a first resistance

 

Long term: technical recovery

On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is maximal but shrinking slowly. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bearish B type crossover will develop. Stochastic and MACD are overbought. Without a close above MQ, the recovery could be over.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is maximal. With our 7 / 23 months moving averages, a bearish non-crossover could develop if MM proves to be a resistance.

Idea: as long as MM proves to be a resistance, the rally in progress since January is only a technical recovery.

R= UY (76.92), MM (80.89), +++;    S= LW (60.97)

 

Medium term: flat

On a weekly basis, with our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages, a weak bullish non-crossover is over. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought.

Idea: a bearish pre-parallel pattern could develop

R = MW (67.79);    S = LW (60.97)

  

Short term (nearest future contract): UD / LD spread id not minimal

On a daily basis, a bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 days moving averages. Our MACD is overbought. LW could be a target.

Idea: nothing to do.

R =  MD (69.53);    S = LW (60.97)

 

 

Conclusion: only a technical recovery on a long term basis.

 

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