Long term basis: Yearly bearish divergence with our stochastic and MACD => 500 as a first target

On a yearly basis, the status for our MACD is a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD and stochastic are overbought at the same period: a sharp decline is expected. The collapse in progress could amplify. 500 and LY (180) are our next supports.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread increase. The dynamic for our 7 quarters moving average is strong and will increase as long as 1280 proves to be a resistance. A bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages (in Q2 2002 it was a bearish B type crossover).Since the end of March 08 a bearish divergence is the status for our MACD. This is the status for our stochastic since December 2007.  The bear move is in progress for 3 quarters at least.

On a monthly basis; a bearish crossover PM / MM + increase of the dynamic for UM. A bearish A type crossover is in progress for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The bear trend for our moving averages will increase until mid 2009 or +. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover. A bearish parallel pattern is in progress for some months (4 to 15?). 500 and LY (180) are our next targets. 

Idea: use bearish parallel rules (monthly time frame).

R = 868 (-8 weekly close);    S = 666 (current low), 500, –

Medium term: bearish as long as 868 (-8 weekly close) = resistance

On a weekly basis, our stochastic and MACD are oversold. As long as our 23 weeks moving average is bearish, a rise is only a technical recovery.  Above MW (830, at the close), UW (947) is our next objective.

Idea: if MW (831) acts as a resistance, a new drop is not ruled out in April.

R = MW (831), UW (947);    S= LW (714).

 Short term: UD / LD spread is wide.

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide but Bollinger bands spread is expending. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise could continue.

Idea: nothing to do with UD / LD spread.

R = MW (831), UW (947);      S= MD (748), LD (657).

Conclusion: as long as 868 prove to be a resistance, the rise is only a technical recovery (bearish on a monthly basis).