S&P 500: toppish

Long term basis: Yearly bearish divergence with our stochastic and MACD => 500 as a first target

On a yearly basis, the status for our MACD is a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD and stochastic are overbought at the same period: a sharp decline is expected. The collapse in progress could amplify. 500 and LY are our next supports.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread could increase with a new decline. The bearish dynamic for our 7 quarters moving average is always in progress. A bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages (in 2002, the crossover was a bearish B type). With a bearish non-crossover for our stochastic (end of Q4) a collapse towards LY is expected.

 On a monthly basis; a bearish parallel pattern is in progress as long as MM proves to be a resistance (end of period).

Idea: a yearly bearish divergence is the status for our stochastic and MACD. The correction of the XX century bullish trend is in progress => bear trend for one decade or more.

R = below MM (1052, at the close), MQ (1225);    S = LW (878), 666 (current low), 500, LY (189)

 

Medium term: higher?

On a weekly basis, Bollinger band spread is not minimal. A weak bullish non-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. As long as MW proves to be a support, a decline is only a technical move. A new bear trend will develop only with a bearish A type crossover for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. With an overbought status for our MACD, MW could be a first target.

Idea: moving averages signal is stronger than MACD one.

R = MQ (1225);    S= MW (1001)

 

Short term: without trend

On a daily basis; UD / LD spread is not minimal. LD should act as a main support. Above MD, UD is our next objective.

Idea: nothing to do.

 

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