Long term basis: Yearly bearish divergence with our stochastic and MACD => 500 as a first target

 

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallels pattern was in progress. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD and stochastic are overbought at the same period: a sharp decline is expected. The yearly bullish trend is over. Below 700, the collapse in progress will amplify. 500 and LY (182) are our next supports.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread increase. The dynamic for our 7 quarters moving average is strong and will increase for 5 periods or more. A bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Since the end of March 08 a bearish divergence is the status for our MACD. This is the status for our stochastic since December 2007.  The bear move is in progress, at least,  for 5 quarters.

On a monthly basis; a bearish crossover PM / MM + increase of the dynamic for UM. A bearish A type crossover is in progress for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The bear trend for our moving averages will increase until mid 2010 or +. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover. A bearish parallel pattern is in progress for some months (4 to 15?). Below 700, 500 and LY (182) are our next targets. 

Idea: more and more bearish as long as our monthly stochastic is not oversold (end of the yearly bear trend with this pattern on a quarterly basis).

R = MW (677), UW (967); S = 700, 500, LY (182)

 

Medium term: Main collapse below PW (760.51)

 

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not at its minimal level. Our MACD could be overbought next week. Current pattern for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is a bearish non-crossover (see our previous analysis). Our next objective is PW (760.51). Below 741 (21/11/2009 low) / 700 the real collapse will begin.

Idea: next week, with a bear trend for LW a new game will be in progress.

R = MW (877), UW (967);    S= PW (760.51), 700, 500

 

Short term: UD / LD spread is not minimal

 

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is not yet minimal. A slide is expected without a bearish ATDMF pattern. As long as MD (832) proves to be a resistance, a bearish pre-parallel pattern could develop before a bearish parallel pattern. But volatility is expending strongly (see the slope for UD). A collapse is not ruled out. Above MD (832) our long term bear signal could fade away. Above UD (876) a recovery / rise on a weekly basis could develop.

Idea: warning (for a very strong bear move) until the end of February.

R = MD (832), UD (876);    S= PW (760.51), —

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Conclusion: below 700, LY will not be a dream.