Archives mensuelles : janvier 2010

€-Bund contract: toppish (daily basis), rise (monthly basis)

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Long term: towards UM?

On a quarterly basis, LQ is flat. Our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages are up. Our stochastic and MACD will continue to rise. UQ could be a target.

On a monthly basis, UM / LM spread is wide. As long as M23 trend is up, PM is our main support.

Idea: Bullish no-crossover for our quarterly stochastic and MACD

Bet:  PM will act as a support

R= UQ (126.02), UM (128.18);   S= PM (118.81)

           

Medium term: UW / LW spread is minimal

On a weekly basis (continuous contract), a weak bullish no-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages.

Idea: a bullish pattern is unlikely with our monthly MACD.

Bet: UW and LW will remain flat.

R = UW (123.52);   S = MW (121.99)

 

Short term: UD = main resistance

On a daily basis (March. basis) Bollinger Bands spread is maximal. UD is a strong resistance.

 Idea: a bullish pre-parallel could develop

Bet: none

R =UD (123.35);   S = MD (122.01)

Conclusion: nothing to do.

 

Nikkeï 225: higher for two months

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Long term: technical recovery

On a yearly basis, our 23 years moving average trend is down. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. LY is our first support.

 On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is wide but extend. For our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bearish A type crossover is in progress. Our stochastic is not oversold.

On a monthly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is over with a previous close above MM.  The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bullish no-crossover. UM / MQ could be a target.

Idea: end of recovery with a monthly close below MM.

Bet: UM will be the highest level in 2010.

R = UM (13474);     S = MM (10037), PM (8125)

 

Medium term: recovery

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is minimal and increase. With our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages, a bullish A type crossover is in progress. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold. With the monthly trend, no bullish pattern could develop. MW is our main support. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise in progress will continue.

Idea: bullish pre-parallel pattern

Bet: UM will be the highest level in 2010.

R = UM (13474);   S = MW (10125)

 

Short term: rise

On a daily basis, a bullish pre-parallel pattern could develop if PD acts as a support today. Otherwise, MD will be our first target.

Idea: With a bullish pre-parallel pattern, UM will be a target.

Bet: PD = support until Tuesday close.

R = UM (13474);   S = PD (10723), MD (10502)

 

Conclusion: see short term analysis.

 

Edito : devises

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Sur les principales paires de devises, les mouvements à l’horizon compris entre quelques jours et quelques semaines ne sont pas marqués. Il est préférable, pour l’opérateur, de se focaliser sur d’autres produits.

Edito : la volatilité

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Une spécificité de l’ATDMF est d’analyser la volatilité pour anticiper les mouvements à venir. Bien que se soit devenu le paramètre le plus significatif depuis de nombreuses années, l’analyse technique classique ne l’a pas encore intégrée.

Au lieu d’assister à des conférences ou à des formations qui ne traitent que de l’histoire de l’analyse technique (ce que propose l’ensemble des analystes techniques, mais qui présente un intérêt limité pour les opérateurs), participez à une formation ATDMF. Vous pourrez utiliser l’analyse technique comme outil de prise, gestion et sortie de position.

 

Voir : http://analyse-technique-atdmf.fr/?p=726

 

Renseignement et inscription : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

Crude oil: rise without bull trend

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Yearly trend: UQ = strong resistance

On a yearly basis, MY acted as a support but T1 and PY price failed as supports. The status for our MACD is a bullish non-crossover. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages are always on a bull trend.

Idea: higher

Bet: Bollinger Bands spread will continue to increase

 

Long term: technical recovery

On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is maximal but shrinking slowly. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bearish B type crossover could develop. Stochastic and MACD are not oversold. The technical recovery in progress could stop at any time. UQ is too far away to be a target.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is maximal. With our 7 / 23 months moving averages, a bullish B type crossover will develop. As long as our stochastic is not overbought, the rise in progress could continue.

Idea: not bearish for some months

Bet: flat on a monthly basis

R= UW (84.19), 90, UQ (113.07),    S= MW (75.25), LW (66.31)

 

Medium term: rise but not yet bullish

On a weekly basis, the level of volatility is not far away from its minimal level. With our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages, a weak bullish non-crossover is in progress. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold. With the monthly trend, no bullish pattern could develop.

Idea: rise as long as MW proves to be a support.

Bet: no bullish pattern in Q1 and Q2 2010.

R = UW (84.19);     S = MW (72.25)

  

Short term (nearest future contract): rise

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is above its maximal level. As long as our 7 days moving average is up, a decline is only a technical move.

Idea: rise as long as MD = support.

Bet: like a casino.

R = UW (84.19);          S = 80, MD (76.95)

 

 

Conclusion: recovery / rise in progress

 

Edito : poursuite du rally sur les indices

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Le rally qui a débuté fin juillet se poursuit. La progression des différents indices ne devrait pas être remise en cause avant début mars. Une double résistance pourrait être impossible à franchir. Dans ce cas le reste de l’année sera (au minimum) à l’image de 2008.  

Une poursuite de la hausse en avril permettrait d’observer une progression de la hausse jusqu’à la fin de l’année.

 Il est trop tôt pour privilégier un scénario.

Si vous souhaitez profiter de ces mouvements, participez à notre prochaine formation ATDMF du 23 au 25 janvier à Paris centre. Formation de groupe 10 personnes au maximum, 2 400 €

Renseignement et inscription :   atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr