Archives mensuelles : avril 2010

Gold: flat on a short term basis

Yearly trend: in 2012 /2013, qualification in a new bullish parallel pattern

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress with a strong dynamic for MY. The dynamic for each band is very strong. PY will cross MY in more than one period. On a Historical basis, one of the most bullish patterns ever seen (since the end of XIX century).

Idea: bullish no-crossover for our stochastic.

Bet: S&P 500 in the 80 as a benchmark.

Long term: quarterly bullish parallel pattern wards LM (49.90ng as MQ (44.60

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is strong. The status in progress for our MACD is a bullish no-crossover. Same pattern will emerge for stochastic at the end of this period if prices are above 1152.

On a monthly basis, our 7 / 23 months moving averages are up with a bullish no-crossover in progress. A bearish divergence is always in progress with our stochastic. Same status is not ruled out for our MACD. But a bullish no-crossover is likely. As long as a bullish no-crossover could emerge as a status for our MACD, MM is a strong support. Next period, a bullish crossover PM / MM is expected. Afterwards, without a correction, a powerful bullish pattern could develop.

Idea: with an oversold status for our monthly stochastic (end of period), a new high is in hand

Bet: monthly bullish parallel pattern

R = rise > 2 years, +++ (could be above 2 000); S = MM (971.79)

Medium term: without trend

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. A bullish no-crossover is the status for our moving averages. Same pattern is in progress for our stochastic. UW acted as a resistance and LW is flat. As long as MW proves to be a support, a bullish pre-parallel pattern could develop. Otherwise, LW will be our next objective.

Idea: the week is not yet finished: a close above UW + bear trend for LW could develop.

Bet: very bullish with an oversold status for our monthly stochastic

R = UW (1166.2) S = MW (1117.5), LW (1068.9)

Short term: like a bullish parallel pattern

On a daily basis; a bullish move is in progress.

Idea: UW could act as a resistance

Bet: higher as long as our MACD is not overbought.

R = UW (1166.2), + S = MD (1122.5)

Conclusion: bullish as long as MD proves to be a support.

Avis de tempête,

Laisser une réponse

Car l’objet de l’analyse technique est d’anticiper les mouvements et non pas de prendre le train en marche.

A partir du 26 avril 2010, une forte hausse de la volatilité sur les principaux marchés financiers sera en place. Ceci signifie que des mouvements violents (à la hausse et à la baisse) sont attendus. Une erreur de positionnement coûtera donc très cher et il sera difficile par la suite de redresser la barre.

L’ATDMF 2010, basée sur l’analyse de la volatilité, est conçue pour profiter à fond de cette situation. Elle permet de choisir les supports les plus réactifs avec un risque minimum. Les spécificités de l’ATDMF permettent d’optimiser la gestion des positions et donc de profiter d’une grande partie des mouvements.

Indices : ne pas mélanger le long, moyen et court terme.

Laisser une réponse

Avec l’arrivée du nouveau trimestre; nos analyses sur les indices, destinées aux professionnels et aux personnes ayant participé à nos formations, permettent d’avoir une vision très précise à un horizon compris entre quelques jours et plusieurs années. Cette situation est exceptionnelle. Ceci nous permet de titrer :

In 2011, could we say: 1929 collapse was a weak move?

Arbitrages ?

Laisser une réponse

La hausse de l’or serait liée à la poursuite de la cacophonie européenne qui se traduit par des dégagements sur l’€. La hausse des cours du contrat10 Y T-Note observée hier serait liée à un début de retournement de tendance sur les marchés actions aux USA. D’ici une dizaine de jours, nous serons fixés.

J’analyse quotidiennement le contrat du 10Y depuis 1982. Durant nos formations ATDMF, nous insistons lourdement sur l’importance de l’évolution des cours du 10 Y T-Note. Si au cours d’une formation à l’analyse technique ce sujet n’a pas été traité, vous devez vous dire que vous avez perdu votre temps en faisant confiance à un amateur.

Formations ATDMF : dates et renseignements en faisant une demande sur

atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

10Y T-Note: fly to quality?

Laisser une réponse

Long term: PQ is a strong support

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread is shrinking. The trend for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is slightly up. Our stochastic is oversold with a weak bullish no-crossover. MACD could be overbought next period.

On a quarterly basis, LQ is slightly up but the UQ / LQ spread is wide. A bullish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought with a bearish divergence for our stochastic. As long as PQ proves to be a support, the decline in progress is only a technical move.

On a monthly basis, a bearish divergence is in progress for our stochastic with a bearish no-crossover for stochastic and MACD. With UM / LM spread, LM / PQ is our main objective.

Idea: MM is our main resistance

Bet: towards LM

R = MM (118.63); S = LM (112.63), MY (110.34)

Medium term: lower

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not far away from its minimal level. The pattern in progress for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is a bearish no-crossover. A bearish trend is in progress without a bearish pattern.

Idea: MW is a strong resistance

Bet: bearish as long as our MACD is not oversold

R = MW (117.23); S = LW (114.93), LM (112.63)

Short term:

On request

La tentation du diable

Laisser une réponse

Que signifie la hausse des cours de l’or et du pétrole ? Reprise de l’inflation afin de pouvoir effacer des dettes ingérables ou conflits géopolitiques. Ce dernier cas peut être lié au fait que certains souhaitent financer leur prochaine opération (septembre 2001), ou que d’autres veulent tirer profit de certains renseignements.

Du point de vue de l’ATDMF, ces scénarios aboutissent au même résultat : une hausse de la volatilité sur les marchés. La révolte des day-traders n’aura donc pas lieu.

Prochaines dates de formations ATDMF: laissez vos coordonnées sur atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

Crude oil: towards UM

Laisser une réponse

Yearly trend: higher

On a yearly basis, the pattern in progress is a bullish parallel pattern. The status for our MACD is a bullish no-crossover. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages are always on a bull trend.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: higher

Long term: bullish pseudo no-crossover for our quarterly moving averages

On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is maximal but shrinking slowly. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bullish pseudo no-crossover could develop this year. Without a bearish no-crossover as a status for our stochastic, a rise will develop and UM will be a target. Otherwise LW will be an objective.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM was maximal but is shrinking. As long as our stochastic is not overbought, the rise in progress could continue.

Idea: UM as a main target

Bet: rise for some months

R= UM (99.10); S= MM (67.44, end of period)

Medium term: volatility is not far away from its minimal level

On a weekly basis, the level of volatility is minimal. Our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages, stochastic and MACD status is a bullish no-crossover. MW is not flat. MM is not up. UM is a maximal target.

Idea: higher for some weeks.

Bet: bullish as long as our MACD is not overbought.

R = UM (99.10); S = MW (78.05)