Archives mensuelles : juin 2010

Gold: new buy signal ???

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Yearly trend: in 2012 /2013, qualification in a new bullish parallel pattern

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress with a strong dynamic for LY. PY will cross MY in more than one period. On a Historical basis, one of the most bullish pattern ever seen (since the end of XIX century). 

Idea: bullish no-crossover for our stochastic.

Bet: S&P 500 rise in the 95 / 2000 as a benchmark.

 

Long term: a new monthly bullish pattern qualification?

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is strong. The status in progress for our MACD and our stochastic is a bullish no-crossover.

On a monthly basis, our 7 / 23 months moving averages are up with a bullish no-crossover in progress. Our stochastic is oversold. A bullish no-crossover is in progress with our MACD. MM is a strong support. A new parallel qualification could be in hand in early October after a PM / MM bullish crossover.

Idea: with the oversold status for our monthly stochastic, a new high is in hand

Bet: until the end of July; if 1155 proves to be a support, 2 000 will be an intermediate short term target

R = rise > 2 years, +++ (should be above 2 000, 3 000???);    S = 1155, MM (1000)

 

 Medium term: MW / PW +2

On a weekly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress. A new qualification into a bullish parallel pattern will be in hand if our stochastic is not overbought early next week.

Idea: with a new parallel qualification, same pattern will develop on a monthly basis

Bet: wait next Monday morning

 

R = 1250 (psy.), 1430, +        S = MW (1153)

 

Short term: flat

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal. But with our weekly pattern it is not bearish. If MD proves to be a support, UD will fail as a resistance. Below PD, LD is our next objective.

Idea: medium buy signal if MD = support

Bet: M23 will be up next week

 

R = 1250, + + + ;          S = MD (1213.2), PD (1194), LD (1181.5)

 

Conclusion: new qualification into bullish parallel for weekly time frame?

 

Bund: higher for some months

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Long term: bullish

On a quarterly basis, the trend for Bollinger bands spread is increasing. Our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages are up. Our stochastic and MACD will continue to rise.

On a monthly basis, as long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise in progress will continue or amplify.

Idea: higher for some periods on a quarterly basis (as long as a bullish crossover PQ / MQ is unlikely).

Bet:  above 130

R= 130, +, ++;    S= MM (123.06)

           

Medium term: bullish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis (continuous contract), a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea:  use bullish parallel rules, bullish crossover PW / MW next week

Bet: a new parallel qualification will develop in June

R = 130, +, ++ ;   S = MD (128.32)

 

Short term: bullish

On a daily basis, as long as MD proves to be a support, a decline is only a technical move.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet:

R = UD (130.42)   S = MD (128.32), LD (126.22)

 

Conclusion: add long position with a new parallel qualification on a weekly basis

 

Nom de notre prochaine monnaie

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L’analyse de l’€ envoyée ce matin à nos abonnés, nous incite à poser cette question. Sur le plan technique, il faudra attendre le début de l’année 2011 pour parler de ce sujet au futur. Si actuellement le conditionnel est de rigueur, en contrepartie, il n’est pas impossible que début 2011 la réponse à cette question appartienne au passé.

Banques : effondrement programmé ?

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BNP, CA, SG et autres titres vont présenter un magnifique non-croisement sur le MACD trimestriel à partir de juillet prochain. Ajoutons AXA à ce palmarès non limitatif.  Comme un bonheur (pour ceux qui anticipent la baisse) n’arrive jamais seul, une hausse de la volatilité sera visible sur cette unité de temps pour certains de ces titres. Ceci peut signifier un défaut de paiement pour certaines (toutes ?) sociétés.  Réfléchissez aux conséquences que cela peut avoir sur vos investissements, économies, trésorerie, etc .

Le non-croisement sur le MACD est une spécificité ATDMF (présenté et décrit dans aucun ouvrage anglo-saxon ou autre). Ceci n’empêche pas cette configuration d’être extrêmement fiable et anticipatrice d’un mouvement d’une violence inouïe. Si vous avez suivi une formation ATDMF vous en connaissez la raison.  Pour vous en convaincre, il vous suffit de rechercher une telle configuration dans le passé sur n’importe quel support. Si vous êtes curieux ou si vous voulez éviter d’être ruiné vous pouvez suivre notre formation de base.

Le trimestre n’est pas terminé. La validation de cette figure ne sera acquise que début juillet. Cependant, pratiquer l’analyse technique (ATDMF) c’est anticiper la formation d’informations exceptionnelles et des mouvements qui en découlent.

10 Y T-Note: higher (long term basis)

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Long term: higher

On a yearly basis, the trend for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is up. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold. For each one, a bullish no-crossover is in progress. The rise in progress should extend.

On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is wide but  increasing. A bullish no-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD could be oversold at the end of this year. UQ will be our first target.

On a monthly basis, our stochastic and MACD will be oversold at the end of May. The spread for Bollinger bands spread is wide. UM is our main target.

Idea: towards UM or above.

Bet: MM will act as a strong support

 R = UM (124.55);    S = MM (119.16)

 

Medium term: rise

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is increasing. Our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages are up. With a bullish no-crossover as a status for our stochastic, the rise will amplify. Otherwise, MW could be a target.

Idea: as long as our MACD is not overbought a decline is a technical move

Bet: MW is a strong support

R = UW (120.77);      S = MW (117.87)

 

Short term: decline

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide. As long as our stochastic is not oversold, LD is our main target.

Idea: towards LD

Bet: technical decline in progress

R = MD (120.02), UD (121.8);       S = LD (118.37)

 

Conclusion: nothing to do.

 

€ / $: lower

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   Long term: towards LY is not ruled out

On a yearly basis, Bollinger band spread is not minimal and could stay at the same level for some periods. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages will be without main trend. Our stochastic could be overbought next period. Our MACD is not yet overbought. 1.164 (2005 low) is the first objective and LY is the next one.

On a quarterly basis, the status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish no-crossover. Next pattern for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages will be a bearish A type crossover. LQ is our first support.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread was maximal but is expending. A bearish A type crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The status for our stochastic and MACD is overbought. As long as our MACD is not oversold, the decline will continue.

Idea: bearish as long as our quarterly stochastic is not oversold (at least for 3 periods)

Bet: below LQ, LY is our main target.

R = MM (1.3673);    S= MY (1.2075), 1.164, LQ (1.1486), LY (.9184)

 

Medium term: bearish parallel patternOn a weekly basis, a bearish parallel qualification is in progress.

Idea: use bearish parallel rules

Bet: collapse

R = MW (1.3337);     S = MY (1.2075)

  

Short term: bearish parallel patternlrt term: no trend965Y (1.4243amilliales) enance personnelle.tellis

On a daily basis, a bearish parallel pattern qualification is in progress.

Idea: use bearish parallel rules

Bet: a sell-off could develop at any time

R = PD (1.2565);   S = MY (1.2075)

 

Conclusion: LQ (1.1486) is not a strong support.

 

 

Fallait-il investir dans l’ATDMF ?

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Lorsque votre approche ou celles de vos conseillés (techniques, économistes, banquiers, éditorialistes et autres gourous) vous auront ruinés, la réponse arrivera lorsque il sera trop tard.

C’est aujourd’hui que l’ATDMF exige que votre patrimoine soit progressivement composé d’or. Actuellement, les signaux observés depuis prés d’un an, permettent de comparer le mouvement sur l’or à la hausse du S&P 500 entre 1995 et 2000 (l’indice est passé de 457 à 1552).

Dans le paysage français, le mouvement attendu sur l’or n’est pas une première. Rappelons-nous le temps béni des années 75 – 80 où les transactions sur le 4,5 représentaient 90 % des transactions à la corbeille.

Formation ATDMF : 5 au 7 juin (3 participants), autres dates en semaine ou week-end.

 

atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

 

Gold: S&P 500 (1995/2000) as a benchmark

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Yearly trend: in 2012 /2013, qualification in a new bullish parallel pattern

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress with a strong dynamic for MY. The dynamic for each band is very strong. PY will cross MY in more than one period. On a Historical basis, one of the most bullish pattern ever seen (since the end of XIX century). 

Idea: bullish no-crossover for our stochastic.

Bet: S&P 500 rise in the 95 / 2000 as a benchmark.

 

Long term: a new monthly bullish pattern qualification? wards LM (49.90ng as MQ (44.60

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is strong. The status in progress for our MACD and our stochastic is a bullish no-crossover.

On a monthly basis, our 7 / 23 months moving averages are up with a bullish no-crossover in progress. Our stochastic is oversold. A bullish no-crossover is in progress with our MACD. MM is a strong support. A new parallel qualification could be in hand in early September after PM / MM bullish crossover.

Idea: with the oversold status for our monthly stochastic, a new high is in hand

Bet: until the end of July; if 1155 proves to be a support, 2 000 will be an intermediate short term target

R = rise > 2 years, +++ (should be above 2 000, 3 000???);    S = 1155, MM (1000)

 Medium term: bullish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use bullish parallel qualification rules for a new one

Bet: how long LW trend will continue? This could be the most important forecast for 2010 / 2011 /2012 investments (if you want to be rich / very rich)

 

R = 1250 (psy.), 1430, +        S = MW (1142)

 

Short term: without main trend

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide. As long as M23 is up, a decline is only a technical move.  

Idea: LD is a strong support.

Bet: towards our main resistance (UD) as long as MD proves to be a support.

 

R = MD (1208.4), UD (1245), 1250;          S = LD (1171.2)

 

Conclusion: bear trend for LW after mid-June?