Archives mensuelles : septembre 2010

Gold: nothing else…

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Yearly trend: in 2012 /2013, qualification in a new bullish parallel pattern

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress with a strong dynamic for LY. PY will cross MY in more than one period. A powerful bullish no-crossover is in progress with our stochastic. On a Historical basis, one of the most bullish pattern ever seen (since the end of XIX century). 

Idea: LY will continue to decline for two periods or more

Bet: S&P 500 rise in the 1990 / 2000 as a benchmark.

 

Long term: a new monthly bullish pattern qualification?

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is strong and continue thru 2013. The status in progress for our MACD and our stochastic is a bullish no-crossover. On a quarterly basis, these patterns give a very powerful signal.

On a monthly basis, our 7 / 23 months moving averages are up with a bullish no-crossover as a current status. At the end of the current period, the status for our monthly stochastic will be a bullish no-crossover. The same pattern is in progress with our MACD. Two periods after a PM / MM bullish crossover, no technical move occurred. Without any change for status, a new bullish parallel qualification will be in hand in early October.

Idea: soon, Gold will be The new standard for international transactions instead of € and $.

Bet: bullish no-crossover for our stochastic and MACD

R = rise > 2 years, +++ (should be above 2 000, 3 000 and +++);    S = 1155, MM (1072)

 

 Medium term: September 2009 as a benchmark?

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is not minimal but UW trend is increasing. A similar pattern to early September 2009 could develop. A bullish no-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. Our MACD is oversold. As long as our MACD is not overbought, a rise or a bull trend is underway.

Idea: a new monthly bullish parallel pattern qualification is in hand

Bet: a very powerful uptrend will develop with a bear trend for LW.

 

R = +++        S = MW (1222.7)

 

Short term: bullish parallel pattern

On a daily basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress as long as MD proves to be a support.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: very bullish as long as our stochastic is not overbought  

 

R = +++;          S = MD (1253.8)

 

Conclusion: long in gold and nothing else.

 

 

 

 

 

Et si l’ATDMF vous permettait de devenir riche ?

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L’ATDMF est une technique qui permet soit aux particuliers soit aux professionnels d’utiliser l’analyse technique pour prendre position sur les marchés financiers. La différence essentielle entre particuliers et professionnels ne porte pas sur la technique (qui est identique) mais sur le money management. Ce que cherchent les particuliers est uniquement de choisir un support qui leur permettra de faire une plus value significative. Les professionnels ne négligent pas cet aspect mais peuvent également chercher, pour un produit spécifique, le potentiel de fluctuation sur une durée donnée.

 

Participez à une formation de base seul ou avec deux autres participants au maximum et repartez au bout de trois jours en maîtrisant parfaitement l’ATDMF 2010.

Aucune connaissance particulière en analyse technique n’est demandée (de toutes façons ce que vous aviez lu dans des livres ne peut plus être utilisé  pour faire des anticipations satisfaisantes).

Durant la formation vous apprendrez à reconnaître les configurations qui vous permettent de prendre position en conformité avec vos souhaits d’opérateur, sans avoir à prendre d’Aspirine ni de Prozac. Pour cela nous indiquons des critères de prise de positions selon que vous êtes débutant, expérimenté ou expert ainsi que les critères pour passer d’une catégorie à l’autre sans augmenter le risque pris. Les différences entre les trois niveaux portent en partie sur l’aptitude à faire / ne pas faire d’opérations en intraday.  

L’or est le produit, qui dans les prochaines années, aura le potentiel de fluctuations le plus significatif. Si mon premier achat de lingot remonte à 1970, c’est à partir de 1973 que j’ai effectué mes premières opérations sur les marchés à terme  et sur les options en compagnie des professionnels les plus réputés. Personne en France ne peut actuellement se prévaloir d’une telle expérience.

 

Renseignements : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

Indices:Inflation will help bullish trend

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Long term: neutral

On a yearly basis, a bearish no-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD but our 7 / 23 years moving averages are up. Below MY, 1000, 795 (current low) are our objectives.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger Bands spread is near its minimal level. For our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, the trend is up. As long as MQ proves to be a support, a decline is only a technical move. UQ is our main target.

On a monthly basis, UM / LM spread is maximal. Our stochastic could be oversold after our MACD. For our 7 / 23 months moving averages a weak A type bullish crossover is in progress. UM is our first target.

Idea: towards UQ as long as MM proves to be a support

Bet: bullish above PM.

R = PM (2031), UQ (2163);     S = MM (1670)

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Medium term: recovery in progress

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. With our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages the status could be a bullish no-crossover before the end of October. A bullish no-crossover is in progress with our stochastic. PM is our first objective.

Idea: recovery could turn in rise

Bet: at least, higher for four weeks

R = PM (2031);    S = MW (1850)

 

Short term: bullish

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is increasing strongly. Without a bullish no-crossover for one of our indicators, PM could act as a resistance.

Idea: bullish as long as our MACD is not overbought

Bet: higher

R = PM (2031);    S = MD (1848)

Conclusion: bullish on a medium term basis if PM fails as a resistance

 

10 Y T-Note: medium term trend is always bullish

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Long term: higher on a yearly basis

On a yearly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bullish no-crossover. The same status is in progress for our stochastic and MACD. The rise in progress should extend for some periods. Current Historical high is only our first objective.

On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is wide but increasing. A bullish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD were oversold at the same time. Current Historical high is only our first objective.

On a monthly basis, the spread for Bollinger bands spread is wide and bands are flat. Our stochastic and MACD are not yet overbought. In early 2011 a bearish A type crossover could be the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages.

Idea: as long as our monthly stochastic is not overbought, no correction could develop                                

Bet: new bullish move above 127.

 R = 127, 128.7;    S = MM (119.46)

 

Medium term: bullish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages are up. A bullish parallel is in progress. The rise could amplify.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: MW is a nice support

R = 127;    S = MW (122.45)

 

 

Short term: without trend

On a daily basis, M23 will continue to decline. With an oversold status for our MACDMD will be our first target. Otherwise MW could be an objective.

Idea: no bear pattern with our weekly trend

Bet: above MD.

R = MD (124.92), UD (126.64);    S = LD (123.2)

 

Conclusion: MW is our main support.

 

BOJ is in the game

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Long term:  lower than Historical low?

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are shrinking and the spread is minimal. A pseudo bearish no-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages. Our stochastic will be overbought at the beginning of the next period (same pattern for our MACD?) The decline in progress should continue for some periods. Below 89.59 (Historical Low), a long tem collapse is not ruled out.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal but expending strongly. A pseudo bearish no-crossover is in progress with our stochastic and MACD. As long as our MACD is not oversold, the decline will continue.

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal but increase. For our 7 / 23 months moving averages, a bearish no-crossover is in progress. As long as our MACD is not oversold, the decline will continue.

Idea: below LY, 89.5 is our next target

Bet: Very bearish if PY (101.75) fails as a support

R = PM (123.22);     S = LY (99.72), 89.59 (Historical low), – – -.

 

Medium term: towards UW?

 On a weekly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is a bearish no-crossover. A bullish no-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD. Above MW (end of period), UW could be our next objective.

Idea: focus on MW

Bet: very bearish if MW acts as a resistance

R = MW (111.35), UW (116.55);           S = LW (106.15), –

 

Short term: recovery

On a daily basis, a recovery is in progress. With our weekly trend, no bullish pattern could develop.

Idea: rise as long as our stochastic is not overbought.  

Bet: very choppy on an intraday basis.

R = MW (111.35);   S = MD (107.71)

 

 

Conclusion: BOJ is in the game…

 

Crude oil: recovery in progress

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Yearly trend: higher 

On a yearly basis, the pattern in progress looks like a bubble pattern. The current status for our MACD is a bullish no-crossover. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages are always on a bull trend.

Idea: LY is flat below 75 and down above 80

Bet: 87.15 (2010 high) is a far away strong resistance

 

Long term: a bearish no-crossover status for our quarterly stochastic and MACD could develop

On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is maximal. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bullish pseudo no-crossover could develop this year. A bearish no-crossover could be the status for our stochastic and for our MACD at the end of the period. With this hypothesis, LQ will be our main target.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is shrinking but is far away from its minimal level. Our MACD could be overbought next month. As long as PM proves to be a support, a recovery could develop. Otherwise, LM will be our next objective.

Idea: main trend in early October

Bet: 82.97 (August high) is a strong resistance

R= 82.97, UM (92.73);    S= PM (63.11), LM (47.54)

 

Medium term: technical recovery

On a weekly basis, the spread UW / LW is shrinking and not minimal. With our 7 / 23 weekly moving averages, a bearish no-crossover is in progress. Below MW, LW is our main target.

Idea: recovery as long as MW proves to be a support

Bet: nothing to do this week

R = UW (80.55);     S = MW (75.48), LW (70.41)

 

Short term: rise in progress

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is expending. A bullish A type crossover will be the status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise in progress will continue.

Idea: towards UW

Bet: choppy

R = UW (80.55);          S = MD (74.23)

 

Conclusion: no clear trend within a month.

 

 

CAC 40: higher…

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Long term basis: next quarterly MACD status will give the trend until 2012

On a yearly basis, the status for our stochastic is overbought. With our 7 / 23 years moving averages, a bearish B type crossover will develop before 2014.  As long as MY (end of period) proves to be a support, the recovery could continue. Next supports are 2003 low and LY.

On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is increasing with lower prices. A bearish no-crossover could be the status for our MACD (end of period). With this hypothesis, a collapse is in hand. Otherwise, above PQ, MQ is our next objective.

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. With the quarterly trend, as long as MM proves to be a support, UM is our maximal target. With a close below MM, May 2010 low is our first objective and LM is the next one.

Idea: focus on our quarterly MACD status (end of period)

Bet: a bearish no-crossover with PQ could develop next period  

R = UM (4174);    S = MM (3505), May 2010 low (3287), LM (2836), 2003 low (2401), LY (894)

 

Medium term: higher

On a weekly basis, our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages could develop a bullish B type crossover. A bullish no-crossover is the status for our stochastic and our MACD. UW will be our first objective.

Idea: recovery in progress

Bet: rise as long as our stochastic is not overbought

 

R = UW (3789), PM (4041);               S= MW (3577)

 

Short term: UD / LD spread is not minimal

On a daily basis, moving averages, stochastic and MACD are without exceptional information. As long as MD proves to be a support, the rise in progress could continue.

Idea: nothing to do

Bet: towards UW.

R = UW (3789);     S= MD (3582)

 

Conclusion: only for trading

 

€-Bund (Dec 2010): without main trend on a daily basis

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Long term: bullish

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is increasing. Our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages are up. Our stochastic and MACD will continue to rise.

On a monthly basis, as long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise in progress will continue or amplify.

Idea: higher for some periods on a quarterly basis.

Bet:  before the end of 2010, qualification into a monthly bullish parallel pattern

R= Historical High (134.77), +, ++;    S= MM (124.35)

           

Medium term: bullish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis (continuous contract), a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea:  use bullish parallel rules

Bet: higher for some periods

R = 134.77 (current high), +, ++;   S = MW (129.19)

 

Short term (December 2010 contract): without trend

On a daily basis, a close occurred below MD. UD / LD spread is wide. A bearish B type crossover will develop with our 7 / 23 days moving averages. If a bearish no-crossover develop with our stochastic, LD will be a target. Otherwise, a recovery towards UD is expected.

Idea:  use stochastic to follow the trend

Bet: less bearish than 10 Y T-Note

R = UD (133.28)   S = MD (131.35), LD (129.46)

Conclusion: a new Historical High is not ruled out before the end of 2010.

 

Forex: a very special day

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€ / $

Medium term: below PW, LW is our next target

 

On a weekly basis; in September, a bearish A type crossover will be the status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. If PW fail as a support, our MACD will be overbought and LW will be our next objective.

Idea: bearish below PW

Bet: below PW if our weekly stochastic is overbought (end of period)

R = MD (1.2762);     S = PW (1.2588), LW (1.2004)

 

 

Short term: UD / LD spread is minimal

On a daily basis, a bearish no-crossover could develop with our 7 / 23 days moving averages. With this hypothesis, our MACD will be overbought. PW will fail as a support.

Idea: below PW, a sell-off is expected

Bet: bearish no-crossover for our moving averages is expected only today.

R = MD (1.2762);   S = PW (1.2588), LW (1.2004)

 

Conclusion: below PW, LY (1.1568) could be a target.