Long term: lower?
On a monthly basis (September 2010 contract) a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.
Idea: as long as PM proves to be a support, a decline is only a technical correction
Bet: none
R= 99.55 (Historical high); S = PM (99.014), MM (98.45)
Medium term: towards LW
On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. For our MACD, a bearish no-crossover is in progress. LW is our first target. As long as the pattern for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is not a bearish A type crossover, a decline is only a technical move.
Idea: weak as long as MW proves to be a resistance
Bet: below LW, the decline could be a bear trend.
R = MW (99.364); S = LW (99.17)
Short term: bearish
On a daily basis, a bear trend is in progress. Below 99.15 (May low), the move should extend towards PM.
Idea: below 99.15, stock indexes will move lower.
Bet: weak as long as MD proves to be a resistance.
R = MD (99.346); S = 99.15
Conclusion: first warning for financial system below 99.15, crisis below PM (99.014).