Long term basis: weak

On a yearly basis, the status for our stochastic is overbought. Our M7 is neutral and could decline for some periods.  Below 2003 low, LY is our next objective.

On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is increasing with lower prices. With a bearish no-crossover as a status for our MACD, a collapse will be in hand.

On a monthly basis; with an overbought status for our stochastic and MACD at the same period, LM is our next support.

Idea: with a monthly close below MM, a bearish no-crossover is expected for our quarterly MACD

Bet: quarterly pattern for MACD is the key: bearish no-crossover (eop) => 2003 low as a first objective.

R = UM (4148);    S = MM (3441), LM (2734), LQ (2712), 2401 (2003 low), LY (894)

 

Medium term: decline

On a weekly basis, a bearish pre-parallel pattern could be in progress. As long as the status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is a bearish A type crossover, a rise is only a technical recovery.

Idea: decline as long as our MACD is not oversold

Bet: not yet bearish

 

R = MW (3794);               S= 3287 (May low), 3000

 

 Short term: technical recovery?

On a daily basis, as long as MD proves to be a resistance (eop), the decline will continue. With UD / LD spread, UD is a maximal target.

Idea: only technical recovery as long as M23 trend is down.

Bet: next week, LD = strong support.

R = MD (3580), UD (3860);     S= LD (3299)

 

Conclusion: towards LM this year