Yearly trend: higher?

On a yearly basis, the pattern in progress looks like a bubble pattern. The current status for our MACD is a bullish no-crossover. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages are always on a bull trend.

Idea: end of the pattern when LY will be up

Bet: 87.15 (2010 high) is a far away strong resistance

 

Long term: bearish no-crossover status for our quarterly stochastic and MACD is expected

On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is maximal. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bullish pseudo no-crossover could develop this year. A bearish no-crossover will be the status for our stochastic and for our MACD at the end of the period. LQ will be our main target.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is shrinking but is far away from its minimal level. Our MACD could be overbought next month. As long as PM proves to be a support, a recovery could develop. Otherwise, LM will be our next objective.

Idea: main trend in early October

Bet: 82.97 (August high) is a strong resistance

R= 82.97, UM (93.97);    S= PM (60.44), LM (43.11)

 

Medium term: lower

On a weekly basis, the spread UW / LW is shrinking and not minimal. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. With our 7 / 23 weekly moving averages, a bearish no-crossover is in progress. LW is our main target.

Idea: a bearish pre-parallel pattern could develop

Bet: nothing to do this week

R = MW (76.31);     S = LW (69.1)

Short term: bearish without pattern

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is wide. A bearish no-crossover could be the status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages. Weakness could amplify until mid-September.

Idea: MD will act as a resistance

Bet: more bear strength below PD.

R = MD (76.74);          S = PD (70.76)

 

Conclusion: weakness on a medium term basis.