Crude oil : weak

Yearly trend: higher

On a yearly basis, the pattern in progress is a bullish parallel pattern. The status for our MACD is a bullish no-crossover. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages are always on a bull trend.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: higher

 

Long term: bullish pseudo no-crossover for our quarterly moving averages

On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is maximal but shrinking slowly. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bullish pseudo no-crossover could develop this year. Without a bearish no-crossover as a status for our stochastic, a rise will develop and UM will be a target. Otherwise MQ will be our first objective.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is shrinking but it is far away from its minimal level. As long as our stochastic is not overbought, the rise in progress could continue.

Idea: UM as a main target

Bet: Bollinger bands could stabilize in early summer

R= UM (98.7);    S= MQ (67.31, end of period)

 

Medium term: not bullish

On a weekly basis, the volatility is not minimal. Our stochastic and MACD status could be overbought next week. Monthly M23 trend is down. A bullish pre-parallel pattern is unlikely. Below MW, LW is our next objective.

Idea: with UD / LD spread, prices will stabilize for some periods

Bet: the pattern in progress since July 2009 will continue

R = MD (83.5);     S = MW (78.62), PW (72.57)

 

Short term: towards LD / MW

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is maximal. LD / MW could act as a support. Afterwards, a bearish pre-parallel could develop if MD acts as a resistance. Otherwise, a recovery towards UD is expected.

Idea: MD and PD at the same level = strong support

Bet: leader for indices trend?

R = MD (83.5), UD (87.15);          S = MW (78.62)

 

Conclusion: recovery for 2010 could be disappointing.

 

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