S & P 500: bear trend in the last quarter

Long term basis: Yearly bearish divergence with our stochastic and MACD => 500 as a first target

On a yearly basis, the status for our MACD is a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD and stochastic are overbought at the same period: a sharp decline is expected. Below MY, a collapse could develop and amplify. 666, 500 and LY are our next supports.

On a quarterly basis, a bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages (in 2002, the crossover was a bearish B type). MQ acts as a resistance. With a bearish no-crossover as a status for our MACD (end of period), LQ is our first support. If Bollinger bands spread increase, 666 (2009 low) will be our next target. The Collapse will continue as long as our MACD will be not oversold (end of period).

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide. UM should act as a strong resistance. The status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages is not yet a bullish A type. At the end of  August, the status for our stochastic and MACD will give the way (up or down) for the trend. Below MM, LM will be our main support.

Idea: not bullish as long as MQ proves to be a resistance

Bet: decline with a close below MM and bearish with a bearish no-crossover for our quarterly MACD.

R = MQ (1212), UM (1252);    S = MM (1009), LM (768), 666 (current low), 500, LY (277)

 

Medium term: UW / LW spread is maximal

On a weekly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is neutral but a bearish A type crossover could develop. Next week, the status for our stochastic and MACD could be overbought. LW is our main target. Otherwise, MW is an objective.

Idea: a bearish pre-parallel pattern could develop

Bet: choppy

 

R = MW (1105);    S= MM (1009)

 

Short term: lower

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is expending. A bearish crossover PD / MD occurred with a bullish trend for UD. A bearish no-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD.  The bear move could amplify.

Idea: use bearish parallel rules

Bet: MM will act as a support.

 

R = MD (1093);                    S= MM (1009)

 

Conclusion:  next status will be a bearish no-crossover for our quarterly MACD….

 

Laisser un commentaire

Votre adresse de messagerie ne sera pas publiée. Les champs obligatoires sont indiqués avec *