Long term basis: Yearly bearish divergence with our stochastic and MACD => 500 as a first target
On a yearly basis, the status for our MACD is a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD and stochastic are overbought at the same period: a sharp decline is expected. Below MY, a collapse could develop and amplify. 666, 500 and LY are our next supports.
On a quarterly basis, a bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages (in 2002, the crossover was a bearish B type). MQ acts as a resistance. With a bearish no-crossover as a status for our MACD (end of period), LQ is our first support. If Bollinger bands spread increase, 666 (2009 low) will be our next target. The Collapse will continue as long as our MACD will be not oversold (end of period). Otherwise, MQ will be our first target.
On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide. UM should act as a strong resistance. The status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages is not yet a bullish no-crossover. Our stochastic is overbought. A bullish no-crossover could be the status for our MACD. As long as MM proves to be a support, PM is our main objective.
Idea: not bullish as long as MQ proves to be a resistance
Bet: next week status for our quarterly and monthly MACD will give the main trend for early 2011.
R = PM (1203), MQ (1213), UM (1255), +; S = MM (1021), LM (788), 666 (current low), 500, LY (277)
Medium term: UW / LW spread is thin
On a weekly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is neutral for three weeks. The status in progress for our stochastic is a bullish no-crossover. Next month, a bullish pre-parallel pattern could develop.
Idea: not bearish as long as MW = support
Bet: above UW is not ruled out in October
R = UW (1142), PM (1203); S= MW (1091)
Short term: toppish
On a daily basis, as long as M23 is up, a decline could be only a technical decline. Below MD, LD is our next objective.
Idea: decline with an overbought status for our MACD
Bet: choppy without main trend (due to UD / LD spread).
R = UD (1161); S= MD (1101), LD (1041)
Conclusion: in early October, focus on our quarterly and monthly MACD….