Archives mensuelles : janvier 2011

CAC 40: rise above 4048

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Long term basis: not yet bullish

On a yearly basis, the status for our stochastic is overbought. With our 7 / 23 years moving averages, a bearish B type crossover will develop before 2014.  As long as MY (end of period) proves to be a support, the recovery could continue. Next supports are 2003 low and LY.

On a quarterly basis, MQ is our next objective. With a close above MQ, The pattern could be similar to the Q2 2005 one.

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. With a NEI on our quarterly TAM, UM could be our maximal target.

Idea: bullish with a close above MQ

Bet: with a close above UM, MQ is our next objective.  

R = UM (4048), MQ (4377);    S = MM (3675), May 2010 low (3287), LM (3303), 2003 low (2401), LY (1147)

 

Medium term: rise in progress

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. As long as UM proves to be a resistance (at the close), the rise in progress is a technical move.

Idea:  rise as long as MW proves to be a support

Bet: towards LW if MW fails as a support.

 

R = UM (4048);               S= MW (3675), LW (3301)

 

 hort term: bullish

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is minimal. With a bear trend for LD until Wednesday, a bull trend will develop.

Idea: higher, as long as our daily stochastic is not overbought

Bet: bullish above UM.

R = UM (4048);     S= MD (3888)

 

Conclusion: long above 4048.

 

Euro-Bund: bearish until the end of March (or +)

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Long term: towards MQ or below

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is maximal. Our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages are up. A bearish divergence is in progress with our stochastic. Next period a similar status is expected with our MACD. MQ is our first support.

On a monthly basis, MM could fail as a support (at the close). A bearish A type crossover could be the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages.

Idea: LM could be a strong support.

Bet:  a decline towards LM is in progress.

R= MM (125.22)    S= MQ (119.42), LM (117.94)

           

Medium term: bearish without pattern

On a weekly basis (continuous contract), a PEI is in progress with our MACD.

Idea:  LM as a target with a PEI for our MACD.

Bet: bearish for three periods or more.

R = MW (128.47);   S = LW (123.44)

 

Short term (March 2011 contract): without trend

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. With TAM, no PEI could develop on a daily basis.

Idea: LD is our first support.

Bet: MD will act as a resistance.

R = MD (125.21), UD (126.44)   S = LD (123.98)

 

Conclusion: bearish until the end of March (or +)

 

Crude oil: higher on a medium term basis

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Yearly trend: higher 

On a yearly basis, the pattern in progress looks like a parallel pattern. A PEI is in progress with our MACD. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages will continue to be on a bull trend.

Idea:  UY / LY spread continue to increase

Bet: towards UQ is not ruled out.

R= 100, UQ (115.14)    S= PM (73.26)

 

Long term: higher

On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is maximal. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bullish A type crossover is in progress. Our MACD and stochastic are oversold.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is not far away from its reference level. Without a PEI on our quarterly TAM, as long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise in progress will continue.

Idea: higher for 2011

Bet: rise but not bullish.

R= 100;   S= PM (73.26)

 

Medium term: bullish parallel qualification

On a weekly basis, a bullish parallel is in progress.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: PW will act as a support

R = 100, +;    S = PW (87.25), MW (83.35)

 

 

Short term: flat

On a daily basis, our Bollinger bands spread is a reference one. With our weekly TAM, no specific pattern could develop on a daily basis.

Idea: UD will act as a resistance. LD will act as a support.

Bet: nothing to do this week.

R = UD (91.72);    S = LD (87.18)

 

Conclusion: higher on a medium term basis.

 

Forget CAC 40

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Long term basis: not yet bullish

On a yearly basis, the status for our stochastic is overbought. With our 7 / 23 years moving averages, a bearish B type crossover will develop before 2014.  As long as MY (end of period) proves to be a support, the recovery could continue. Next supports are 2003 low and LY.

On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is maximal. Above PQ, MQ is our next objective.

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. With the quarterly trend, as long as MM proves to be a support, UM is our maximal target. With a close below MM, May 2010 low is our first objective and LM is the next one.

Idea: bullish with a close above MQ

Bet: If PQ = resistance until the end of March, LQ could be a target.  

R = PQ (3961), MQ (4375);    S = MM (3673), May 2010 low (3287), LM (3303), 2003 low (2401), LY (1147)

 

Medium term: decline below MW

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. TAM are neutral. Below MW, LW is our next objective.

Idea:  away from this time frame

Bet: without trend for some periods.

 

R = UW (3980);               S= MW (3780), LW (3598)

 

Short term: without trend

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is minimal. TAM are neutral.

Idea: UW / MW spread as objectives

Bet: nothing to do.

R = UW (3980);     S= MW (3780)

 

Edito : réaliser des plus-values

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Bien entendu, la confirmation de la hausse des taux longs (USA et Europe) est l’information la plus importante de ce début d’année. Le site ATDMF est le seul en France à avoir une rubrique et analyser l’évolution des taux.

 

Si vous souhaitez mettre bon ordre dans vos connaissances et profiter de la hausse des taux pour réaliser d’importantes plus-values (faut savoir ce que l’on veut), participez à une formation de base ATDMF 2011.

 

 

Renseignements : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

10 Y T-Note: focus…

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Long term: towards LM is not ruled out

On a yearly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bullish no-crossover. The same status is in progress for our stochastic. The rise in progress could extend for some periods. Current Historical high is our first objective.

On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is wide. A bullish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. Current Historical high could be an objective.

On a monthly basis, the spread for Bollinger bands spread is wide and bands are flat. A bearish A type crossover could develop this year with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. LM could be a target.

Idea: LM is a strong support.

Bet: lower below last month low (118.53).

 R = MM (119.79);    S = 118.53, PQ (115.43), LM (113.14)

 

Medium term: lower for some weeks

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread was a reference one and continue to expend. A bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. A PEI is in progress with our stochastic. A NEI is in progress on the monthly pattern.

Idea: MW is a strong resistance

Bet: towards 118.53

R = MW (124.12);    S = 118.53

  

Short term: Bollinger bands spread is minimal

On a daily basis, a bearish no-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 days moving averages. Below PD, our stochastic and MACD will be overbought. With this hypothesis, a decline without a bearish pattern (a qualification is expected next week) will develop.

Idea: very weak with an overbought status for our MACD

Bet: PD will fail as a support.

R = MD (119.99);    S = PD (118.89), –

 

Conclusion: lower below PD

 

 

€ / $: weak on a medium term basis

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   Long term: weak

On a yearly basis, Bollinger band spread is not minimal and will stay at the same level for some periods. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages will stay without trend for some periods. An overbought status for our stochastic is in progress, 1.164 (2005 low) is the first objective.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger spread is a reference one. For our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, the pattern could turn to a bearish A type crossover. A PEI is in progress with our stochastic and MACD.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is far away from its minimal level. Our TAM are neutral.

Idea: As long as MM proves to be a resistance, LM could be a target.

Bet: lower but not bearish

R = MQ (1.3767);    S= PM (1.2066)

 

Medium term: towards LW

On a weekly basis, with UW / LW spread, LW is a strong support.

Idea: use our weekly stochastic as a leading indicator

Bet: MW should be a nice resistance

R = MW (1.3415);     S = LW (1.2597)

  

Short term: flat

On a daily basis, Bollinger spread is a reference one. Our TAM are neutral.

Idea: use stochastic as a leading indicator

Bet: nothing to do.

R = UD (1.3414);   S = LD (1.305).

 

Conclusion: very quiet for some weeks.

 

Gold: higher on a yearly basis

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Yearly trend: in 2012 /2013, qualification in a new bullish parallel pattern

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress with a strong dynamic for LY. PY could cross MY next period. A powerful bullish no-crossover is in progress with our stochastic. On a Historical basis, one of the most bullish pattern ever seen (since the end of XIX century). 

Idea: LY will continue to decline for two periods or more

Bet: S&P 500 rise in the 1986 / 2000 as a benchmark.

 

Long term: bullish parallel on a quarterly basis wards LM (49.90ng as MQ (44.60

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is strong and continue thru 2013. A PEI is in progress with our stochastic and MACD.

On a monthly basis, PEI are in progress with our TAM. A bullish parallel qualification is in progress.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules on a monthly basis

Bet: very bullish for 2011

R = rise > 2 years, +++ (should be above 2 000, 3 000 and +++);    S = PM (1268)

  

Medium term: December 2007 pattern in progress (+ 20 % within 4 months?)

On a weekly basis; a bullish parallel is in progress.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules.

Bet: very bullish as long as our stochastic is not overbought.

 

R= UW (1453), +++       S = PW (1372), MW (1341)

Conclusion: hold on long position (bought 6 October 2009 at 1034).

 

Position:

            Previous: long as long as PW acts as a support.

            In progress: long

            Next: long as long as PW acts as a support.