Le sort du CAC 40 sera scellé pour de nombreux mois (trimestres ?) au début du mois d’avril prochain.
L’analyse des IEP / IEN permet de réaliser des anticipations avec une très forte probabilité de réussite.
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Long term: higher
On a yearly basis, Bollinger band spread is not minimal and will stay at the same level for some periods. A bullish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 years moving averages. UY is our main resistance. A PEI could develop with our MACD.
On a quarterly basis, Bollinger spread is a reference one. For our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a PEI is not ruled out. On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is far away from its minimal level. A PEI is in progress with our stochastic and MACD. A bullish A type crossover is expected. UM is our next target.
Idea: towards UQ
Bet: bullish
R = UY (1.5098), UQ (1.547); S= MM (1.3661)
Medium term: UW / LW spread is a reference one
On a weekly basis, TAM are up. UW is our main resistance.
Idea: use our weekly MACD as a leading indicator
Bet: UW as a first objective.
R = UW (1.4109); S = MW (1.3544)
Short term: without trend
On a daily basis, the UD / LD spread could be a reference one next week. A bullish A type is in progress. As long as MD proves to be a support, the rise in progress could continue.
Idea: UD / LD spread will increase at the end of the week
Bet: MD is a strong support.
R = UD (1.4063 S = MD (1.3828
Conclusion: as long as MD proves to be a support, a medium term rise could develop.
Vendredi 25 et samedi 26 (rappels et debriefing)
Sélection d’un actif financier avec l’ATDMF 2011
1- IEP / IEN (Spécificités ATDMF 2011)
-aphorisme
– anticipation
1.1.- volatilité
1.2.- Indicateurs techniques
1.2.1.- ATM
– stochastique
– MACD
– Moyennes mobiles
1.2.2.- Indicateurs supports / résistances
– Parabolique
– Bandes de Bollinger
2.- Opérateur et marchés
2.1.- débutant
2.2.- confirmé
2.3.- expert
3. – Différents types d’analyses
3.1.- analyse de type économique
3.2.- analyse de type opportunité
3.3.- analyse intraday
4. – Application : sélection d’un actif financier
4.1.- analyse directe
4.2.- scan d’une base de données.
Samedi 26
Le rôle des informations exceptionnelles IEP et IEN.
Pourquoi des IEP et des IEN ?
– L’aphorisme : les mêmes causes produisent les mêmes effets
1 – Solution ATDMF les IEP et les IEN
1.1. – volatilité
1.2. – indicateurs techniques
1.2.1.- TAM
1.2.1.1. Stochastique / MACD
1.2.1.2. Moyennes mobiles
.
1.2.2. -Support /résistance
1.2.2.1. Type I, II, III
1.2.2.2. Bollinger après T1 dynamique => T9
2 – IEP et les IEN : qui peut et quand les rencontrer
2.1.- présence
2.2.- absence
3 – analyse économique
4 – analyse d’opportunité
– check-liste
5 – OR /SP
6 – Conclusion
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Long term basis: not yet bullish
On a yearly basis, the status for our stochastic is overbought. With our 7 / 23 years moving averages, a bearish B type crossover will develop before 2014. As long as MY (end of period) proves to be a support, the recovery could continue. Next supports are 2003 low and LY.
On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is maximal. MQ is our next objective. Above MQ, UQ is our next target.
On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. With a NEI on the quarterly basis, as long as MM proves to be a support, UM is our maximal target. With a close below MM, May 2010 low is our first objective and LM is the next one.
Idea: MM is an easier target than MQ.
Bet: bearish divergence for our monthly stochastic?
R = MQ (4380); S = MM (3758), May 2010 low (3287), PM (3287), 2003 low (2401)
Medium term: decline below MW
On a weekly basis, with an overbought status for our stochastic and MAD, LW will be our next target if MW fails as a support.
Idea: as long as M23 is up, the move in progress is only a technical decline
Bet: decline as long as our MACD is not oversold.
R = MD (4065) S= MW (3927), LW (3698)
Short term: decline
On a daily basis, with a NEI on our weekly basis, the decline in progress is only a technical move.
Idea: lower as long as our MACD is not oversold
Bet: bearish with a pre-parallel pattern.
R = MD (4065); S= MW (3927), LW (3698)
Conclusion: MM could be an easier target than MQ.
Long term: higher
On a yearly basis, Bollinger band spread is not minimal and will stay at the same level for some periods. A bullish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 years moving averages. UY is our main resistance. A PEI could develop with our MACD.
On a quarterly basis, Bollinger spread is a reference one. For our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a PEI is not ruled out. On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is far away from its minimal level. A PEI is in progress with our stochastic and MACD. A bullish A type crossover is expected. UM is our next target.
Idea: towards UQ
Bet: bullish
R = UY (1.5093), UQ (1.5469); S= MM (1.3659)
Medium term: UW / LW is a reference one
On a weekly basis, TAM are up. UW is our main resistance.
Idea: use our weekly MACD as a leading indicator
Bet: UW as a first objective.
R = UW (1.4109); S = MW (1.3544)
Short term: rise
On a daily basis, the UD / LD spread is expending but LD is flat. With an overbought status for our MACD, MD is our first support.
Idea: MD will act as a support
Bet: UD is a strong resistance.
R = UD (1.4039); S = MD (1.3734).
Conclusion: as long as MD proves to be a support, a medium term rise could develop.
Les cours de l’argent métal sont passés de 21 $ à 35 $ entre la fin septembre 2010 et mars 2011 (et ce n’est pas sur le point de se terminer).D’ici début juin, La même histoire pourrait se reproduire sur un autre actif financier. Sur celui-ci, les transactions quotidiennes sont probablement 50 000 fois plus importantes que sur l’argent métal. Il ne s’agit donc pas d’un produit secondaire.
Si vous souhaitez pouvoir gérer et profiter de cette situation, il suffit d’utiliser les principes de l’ATDMF 2011.
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Long term: bullish
On a yearly basis, our stochastic and MACD are oversold. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages are up with a PEI. As long as MY proves to be a support, UY could be a target.
On a quarterly basis, Bollinger Bands spread could be a reference one. For our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, the trend is up. A PEI is the status for our stochastic. Our MACD is oversold.
On a monthly basis, UM / LM spread is not a reference one. For our 7 / 23 months moving averages an A type bullish crossover is in progress.
Idea: higher for some periods (monthly basis)
Bet: bullish T1 for our quarterly basis.
R = UY (3050); S = MQ (1775)
.
Medium term: bullish parallel
On a weekly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.
Idea: use bullish parallel pattern rules.
Bet: bullish for some periods
R = UW (2412); S = MW (2236).
Short term: without trend
On a daily basis; UD / LD spread is flat. With the weekly trend, no bearish pattern could develop.
Idea: LD and UD are our targets
Bet: towards UD.
R = UD (2407); S = LD (2296).
Conclusion: close long position below MW (2236)
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Long term: bearish
On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are expending. A PEI is in progress with our moving averages and with our stochastic. The bear trend will continue for two periods or more.
On a quarterly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress.
On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is a reference one. A PEI is in progress with our moving averages and with our stochastic.
Idea: lower
Bet: new Historical Low this and next years
R =MM (1.0341); S = new low
Medium term: bearish?
On a weekly basis, a type III occurred. Bollinger bands spread is a reference one and is expending. A PEI is in progress with our moving averages.
Idea: bearish
Bet: new Historical Low before June.
R = PW (.9746); S = towards .9 or below.
Short term: lower
On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is above a reference one. TAM will move lower. Current pattern is similar to a type II.
Idea: lower without a bearish pattern
Bet: PEI for our stochastic.
R = PD (.9455); S= .9
Conclusion: short with a next weekly low (Vs last week)