Archives mensuelles : avril 2011

WTI: trade of the year

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Yearly trend: higher

 

On a yearly basis, the pattern in progress looks like a parallel pattern. A PEI is in progress with our MACD. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages are always on a bull trend.

Idea:  UY / LY spread is increasing

Bet: towards UQ is expected.

R= UQ (120.63), PY (144.3), +++    S= PM (82.46)

 

Long term: higherwards LM (49.90ng as MQ (44.60

On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is maximal but expending. TAM are up without PEI.

On a monthly basis, UM / LM spread is increasing. A PEI is in progress with our stochastic and with our moving averages. A type II is in progress.

Idea: new maximal spread for UQ / LQ is likely

Bet: Wait early June for a “very special” target.

R= UQ (120.63);   S= PM (81.25)

 

Medium term: bullish

On a weekly basis, a PEI is in progress with our moving averages and with our stochastic.

Idea: Higher as long as MW proves to be a support.

Bet: a new bullish pattern will develop.

R = +;     S = MW (93.43)

 

Short term: higher

On a daily basis, a PEI is in progress with our moving averages and with our stochastic.

Idea: a bullish parallel will develop

Bet: bullish as long as MD = support.

 

 

Conclusion: buy call and wait for PY as a first target….

 

CAC 40 (monthly basis): focus on stochastic

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Long term basis: not yet bullish

On a yearly basis, the status for our stochastic is overbought. With our 7 / 23 years moving averages, a bearish B type crossover will develop before 2014.  As long as MY (end of period) proves to be a support, the recovery could continue. Next supports are 2003 low and LY.

On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is maximal. MQ is our next resistance. Above MQ, UQ is our next target. But, a bearish no-crossover could develop with our moving averages. With this hypothesis, LQ is our main target.

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. With a NEI on the quarterly basis, as long as MM proves to be a support, UM is our maximal target. With a close below MM, May 2010 low is our first objective and LM is the next one.

Idea: wait early April

Bet: bearish divergence for our monthly stochastic?

R = MQ (4379);    S = MM (3753), May 2010 low (3287), 2003 low (2401)

 

Medium term: without trend

On a weekly basis, with M23 up and M7 down, UW is our main resistance and LW is our main support.

Idea: nothing to do

Bet: focus on stochastic pattern.

 R = UW (4162)               S= MW (3934), LW (3705)

 

Short term: choppy

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is maximal.

Idea: not higher than UD.

Bet: towards LD if MD fails as a support.

R = UD (4104);     S= MD (3926), LD (3747)

 

Conclusion: focus on monthly and weekly stochastics.