Archives mensuelles : octobre 2011

Formations ATDMF

Des formations de base  sont organisées durant 3 jours pour 1 à 3 participants. Les dates à votre convenance se font en semaine ou à cheval sur un week-end. A la fin  de cette formation, vous saurez prendre / gérer/ sortir d’une position sur une durée de quelques jours ou plus.

Cette formation ne demande aucun pré-requis.

Les formations intraday sont organisées pour une seule personne pour une durée de 3 ou 5 jours.

Suivi téléphonique durant eux mois .

Renseignements complémentaires en laissant votre e-mail ou votre N° de téléphone (et horaires) à :

atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

 

Philippe Cahen répondera à toutes vos questions.

Gold: technical recovery in progress

Long term: bullish parallel on a quarterly basis

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. A type I could develop. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is strong and continue thru 2013. A PEI is in progress with our MACD. On a monthly basis, a type III is in progress.

Idea: focus on monthly MACD (no-crossover / overbought)

Bet: towards 5 000 or above as long as no NEI will develop on a monthly basis.

R = rise > 2 years, +++ (could be above 5 000);    S = PM (1532.8), MM (1398.9)

  

Medium term: towards LW?

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is maximal. Stochastic and MACD are overbought.

Idea: focus on moving averages (crossover / no-crossover)

Bet: weak as long as our stochastic is not oversold.

 R= MD (1694.2), UW (1893.3);   S = PM (1532.8), LW (1417.3)

 

Short term: technical recovery

On a daily basis; as long as our 23 days moving average trend is down, a rise is only a technical recovery.

Idea: towards LD if MD proves to be a resistance

Bet: LD is a very strong support.

 

R = MD (1694.2), UD (1845.8)               S = LD (1542.6)

 

Conclusion: focus on MD.

 

S&P 500: not so bearish

Long term basis: weak

On a yearly basis, with our 7 / 23 years moving averages, a bearish B type crossover will develop before 2014.  As long as MY (end of period) proves to be a support, the recovery could continue. Next supports are 2003 low and LY.

On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is maximal. MQ is our first resistance. Above MQ, UQ is our next target. A bullish no-crossover could develop with our stochastic.

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is a reference one. Last close was below MM and MQ is a resistance. A bearish A type crossover could develop with our moving averages.

Idea: towards LM as long as MM proves to be a resistance

Bet: trading range on a monthly basis.

 

R = MM (1204), UM (1389);    S = LM (1020)

 

Medium term: not yet bearish

On a weekly basis, TAM tools could turn to a neutral status. But as long as our MACD is not oversold, prices will continue to decline.

Idea: nothing to do

Bet: MW is our first resistance and LM is a strong support.

 

R = MW (1239);    S= LM (1020)

 

Short term: flat

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is above a reference one. TAM tools  are neutral.

Idea: UD = strong resistance and LD is our main support.

Bet: nothing to do.

 

R = MD (1176), UD (1223);                   S= LD (1129)

 

Conclusion:  nothing to do.

 

E-Bund contract: weak below 135

Long term: higher

On a quarterly basis, our moving averages are up. Stochastic and MACD are oversold. As long as no NEI will develop on a monthly basis, the bull trend in progress will continue.

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is increasing. TAM tools are up. As long as our MACD is not overbought, prices will continue to rise.

Idea: higher

Bet: 

R= 139.19 (Historical High), UW (140.77)    S= 135 (PW on DEC. 2011 contract)

           

Medium term: bullish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet:

R = PW (139.19);   S = 135

 

 

Short term: flat

On a daily basis, TAM tools are neutral.

Idea: PD / UD is our first resistance and LD is a strong support

Bet: nothing to do.

R = UD (138.98)   S = LD (135.44)

 

Conclusion: weak if 135 fail as a support.

 

Analyse de vos portefeuilles / patrimoine : notre solution

 

Pour une seule personne par jour.

Philippe Cahen vous propose durant toute une journée, avec une pose repas gourmand, de vérifier l’état de vos investissements et de vous proposer des solutions.  

La journée débute avec une analyse de votre portefeuille et des prévisions fonction de vos objectifs de timming. Puis sont analysés et expliqués les potentiels des différents types de marchés avec leurs avantages et inconvénients.

Philippe Cahen est un analyste indépendant. Il n’a donc aucun intérêt à vous orienter vers tel ou tel marché. Contrairement à la majorité des analystes techniques, son diagnostique est donc basé uniquement sur des critères techniques et n’utilise pas l’analyse technique comme outil de marketing (rétrospectivement, ceci peut expliquer les positions de tel ou tel analyste).

 

Possibilités d’intervenir à partir de mercredi 5 octobre (y compris le week-end).

Renseignements : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr