Archives mensuelles : novembre 2011

Crude oil:higher but not yet bullish

Long term: towards UQ?

On a quarterly basis, a bullish no-crossover is in progress with our moving averages and our stochastic. On a monthly basis, our stochastic and MACD are not yet oversold.

Idea: oversold status this month for our stochastic and MACD

Bet: very bullish with a bullish no-crossover for our monthly moving averages (before the end of 2011)

R= UM (108.67), UQ (120.23);   S= MM (88.34), LM (68.02)

 

Medium term: higher

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is above a reference level. Towards UW if M23 trend is up.

Idea: UW could be a target

Bet: rise as long as our stochastic is not overbought.

R = UW (100.4);     S = MW (88.95)

 

Short term: higher

On a daily basis, a PEI is in progress with our MACD.

Idea: rise as long as our MACD is not overbought

Bet: towards UW.

R = UW (100.4);    S= PD (89.77)

 

Conclusion: higher but not yet bullish.

 

CAC 40: avoid French market

Long term basis: lower

On a yearly basis, stochastic and MACD could continue to be overbought for two periods or more.

On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is maximal. A PEI is the status for our moving averages.

On a monthly basis; for TAM tools, decline will continue.

Idea: lower as long as monthly MACD is not oversold

Bet: lower.

R = MM (3667);    S = PQ (2533), 2003 low / LQ (2364), LY (1115)

 

Medium term: bearish parallel in progress

On a weekly basis, a bearish parallel is in progress as long as MW proves to be a resistance at the close.

Idea: use bearish parallel rules

Bet: technical recovery in progress.

 

R = MW (3323), UW (4033);               S= LD (3049)

 

Short term: flat

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is a reference one. TAM tools are without trend.

Idea: UD = resistance and LD = support

Bet: wait.

R = UD (3321);     S= MD (3185), LD (3049).

 

Conclusion: nothing to do.