Yearly trend: in 2012 /2013, qualification in a new bullish parallel pattern

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress with a strong dynamic for LY. PY will cross MY next period. On a global Historical basis, one of the most bullish pattern ever seen (since the end of XIX century). 

Idea: a type II should develop

Bet: S&P 500 rise in the 1986 / 2000 as a benchmark.

 

Long term: bullish parallel on a quarterly basis

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. A type I could develop. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is strong and continue thru 2013. A PEI is in progress with our MACD. On a monthly basis, a type III is in progress.

Idea: focus on monthly MACD (no-crossover / overbought)

Bet: towards 5 000 or above as long as no NEI will develop on a monthly basis.

R = rise > 2 years, +++ (could be above 5 000);    S = PM (1532.8), MM (1398.7)

  

 Medium term: lower

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is maximal. Stochastic and MACD are overbought. A bearish A type crossover will develop.

Idea: towards LW is expected

Bet: weak as long as our stochastic is not oversold.

 R= UD (1687.5);   S = PM (1532.8), LW (1441.7)

 

Short term: Bollinger spread is minimal

On a daily basis, a NEI on the weekly time frame is in progress. No strong move could develop.

Idea: trading range

Bet: nothing to do.

 

R = UD (1687.5)               S = LD (1607.7)

 

Conclusion: wait for a minimal spread on weekly Bollinger bands (early next year).