Medium term (March 2012 contract): decline
On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is expending. A PEI is in progress for our moving averages and our MACD. A NEI is in progress with our 23 weeks moving average.
Idea: lower as long as our MACD is not oversold
Bet: towards MW.
R = MW (99.452); S = MM (99.033)
Short term: better than a T1
On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is expending.
Idea: today will be a T2 with an intra-day new low.
Bet: powerful bear trend.
R = MD (99.4); S = MW (99.033)
Conclusion: bear trend for this contract (yield up) + rise for 10 Y contract (yield down) => special warning for stocks markets.