Archives mensuelles : janvier 2012

CAC 40: UW = strong resistance

Long term basis: lower

On a yearly basis, stochastic and MACD could continue to be overbought for two periods or more.

On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is maximal. A PEI is the status for our moving averages. Our stochastic could be oversold soon.

On a monthly basis, TAM tools will continue to decline. Bollinger bands spread continue to increase.

Idea: lower as long as monthly MACD is not oversold

Bet: lower.

R = MM (3607);    S = PQ (2565), 2003 low / LQ (2236), LY (1313)

Medium term: neutral

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is a reference one. A bullish no-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD. M23 trend is down.

Idea: UW is a strong resistance and LW is our main support

Bet: nothing to do.

R = UW (3303);               S= MW (3096), LW (2849).

Short term: flat

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is a reference one. TAM tools are neutral.

Idea: as long as MD = support, a bullish pre-parallel pattern could develop

Bet: towards LD if MD fails as a support.

R = UD (3240);     S= MD (3096), LD (2953)

Conclusion: focus on MD.

€ / $: lower

Long term: flat

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages are slightly bullish. Stochastic is overbought. UY is our main resistance and MY is our main support.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger spread is a reference one. A bearish no-crossover is the status for our MACD. LQ is our first objective.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is above a reference one. TAM tools will continue to decline. LM is our main target.

Idea: lower

Bet: towards LM.

R= MM (1.3605), MQ (1.3943);    S= LM (1.2365) , MY (1.2132)

Medium term: lower but not bearish

On a weekly basis, a PEI is in progress with our moving averages.

Idea: a PEI could develop with our stochastic and MACD

Bet: lower as long as our MACD is not oversold.

R = MW (1.3589);     S = LW (1.2795)

Short term: technical recovery in progresslrt term: no trend965Y (1.4243amilliales) enance personnelle.tellis

On a daily basis, a bullish no-crossover is in progress with MACD. As long as M23 trend is down, a rise is only a technical recovery. Above PD, UD is our next objective.

Idea: Focus next Friday on M7 trend

Bet: bearish pre-parallels.

R = PD (1.3103), UD (1.3304);   S = LD (1.2832)

Conclusion: weak.

Crude oil : focus on MD

Long term: towards UQ

On a quarterly basis, a bullish no-crossover is in progress with our moving averages and our stochastic.

On a monthly basis, our stochastic and MACD are not yet oversold.

Idea: oversold status next month (January) for our stochastic and MACD

Bet: very bullish with a bullish no-crossover for our monthly moving averages

R= UM (110.12), UQ (120.56);   S= MM (89.21)

Medium term: rise

On a weekly basis, a PEI is the status for our stochastic.

Idea: UW is our first target

Bet: UW could be a strong resistance.

R = UW (104.43);     S = MW (90.78)

Short term: higher?

On a daily basis; if MD proves to be a support, a PEI will be the status for our stochastic and MACD.

Idea: above 103.36 (current high) May 2011 top is our next objective (114).

Bet: focus on MD.

R = 103.36;    S= MD (98.56), LD = (93.92).

Conclusion: focus on MD.