Long term:  lower than Historical low?

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are shrinking and the spread is minimal. A pseudo bearish no-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages. Our stochastic will be overbought at the beginning of the next period (same pattern for our MACD?) The decline in progress should continue for some periods. Below 89.59 (Historical Low), a long tem collapse is not ruled out.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal but expending strongly. A pseudo bearish no-crossover is in progress with our stochastic and MACD. As long as our MACD is not oversold, the decline will continue.

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal but increase. For our 7 / 23 months moving averages, a bearish no-crossover is in progress. As long as our MACD is not oversold, the decline will continue.

Idea: below LY, 89.5 is our next target

Bet: Very bearish if PY (101.75) fails as a support

R = PM (123.22);     S = LY (99.72), 89.59 (Historical low), – – -.

 

Medium term: towards UW?

 On a weekly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is a bearish no-crossover. A bullish no-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD. Above MW (end of period), UW could be our next objective.

Idea: focus on MW

Bet: very bearish if MW acts as a resistance

R = MW (111.35), UW (116.55);           S = LW (106.15), –

 

Short term: recovery

On a daily basis, a recovery is in progress. With our weekly trend, no bullish pattern could develop.

Idea: rise as long as our stochastic is not overbought.  

Bet: very choppy on an intraday basis.

R = MW (111.35);   S = MD (107.71)

 

 

Conclusion: BOJ is in the game…

 

Long term:  lower than Historical low?

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are shrinking and the spread is minimal. A bearish no-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages. Our stochastic will be overbought at the beginning of the next period (same pattern for our MACD?) The decline in progress should continue for some periods. Below 89.59 (Historical Low), a long tem collapse is not ruled out.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal but expending strongly. A soft bearish no-crossover is in progress with our stochastic and MACD. As long as our MACD is not oversold, the decline will continue.

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal but increase. For our 7 / 23 months moving averages, a bearish no-crossover is in progress. As long as our MACD is not oversold, the decline will continue.

Idea: below 89.5 a collapse, on a long term basis will develop.

Bet: yearly stochastic and MACD will be overbought in early 2011…

R = PM (125.65);     S = 100, 89.59 (Historical low), – – -.

 

Medium term: bearish 

 On a weekly basis; if PW acts as a resistance a qualification into a bearish parallel pattern could develop next week.

Idea: bearish no-crossover for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages before the end of August

Bet: PW will act as a resistance

R = PW (114.74);           S = LW (103.91)

 

Short term: decline

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is minimal. Our weekly trend is not yet bearish. With a decline below LD, a technical decline will be in progress.

Idea: lower as long as our stochastic is not oversold

Bet: bearish pre-parallel at the end of August.

R = MD (112.89);   S = LD (111.52), 109.6

 

Conclusion: not yet bearish

 

Long term:  lower than Historical low?

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are shrinking and the spread is minimal. A bearish no-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages. Our stochastic will be overbought (next period, same pattern for our MACD?) The decline in progress should continue for some periods. Below 89.59 (Historical Low), a long tem collapse is not ruled out.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal but expend strongly. A soft bearish no-crossover is in progress with our stochastic and MACD. As long as our MACD is not oversold, the decline will continue.

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal but increase. For our 7 / 23 months moving averages, a bearish no-crossover is in progress. As long as our MACD is not oversold, the decline will continue.

Idea: below 89.5 a collapse, on a long term basis will develop.

Bet: yearly stochastic and MACD will be overbought in early 2011…

R = PM (129.95);     S = 100, 89.59 (Historical low), – – -.

 

Medium term: bearish  

 On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is expending. The status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is a bearish no-crossover. As long as our MACD is not oversold, the decline in progress will continue.

Idea: bearish no-crossover for our MACD

Bet :in July, opportunity to be short on a daily basis

R = UD (113.68);           S = 100

 

Short term: flat

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. Next month, a bearish pattern could / will develop.

Idea: very bearish with a weekly bearish no-crossover for our MACD

Bet: collapse below LD

R = UD (113.68);   S = LD (109.24)

 

Conclusion: lower on a medium / long term basis

 

Long term: weak

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread will stop to increase. Moving averages, stochastic and MACD will continue to rise over the next period. Below 2009 low (.8401) the decline will extend.

On a quarterly basis, the bullish bubble is over since one period. Below PQ, MQ is our next target.

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal. LM could act as a support.

Idea: towards LM.

Bet: below LM, MQ could be a target.

R = MM (.8814);      S = LM (.8198), PQ (.8209), MQ (.7736)

 

Medium term: lower

On a weekly basis, our moving averages, stochastic and MACD trend is down (bearish no-crossover as a status). As long as our MACD is not oversold, the decline in progress will continue.

Idea: towards a new low

Bet: below .84

R = MW (.8792);        S = .8401, LM (.8198)

 

Short term: trading range

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal. With a bearish A type crossover for our 7 / 23 days moving averages, LD will be our first target. Afterwards, a bearish pre-parallel could develop.

Idea: in July, LD will fail as a support

Bet: collapse below .8428

R = MD (.8587);           S= .8428 (May low) 

 

Conclusion: lower  

 

 Long term: below historical low

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread will continue to increase. The trend for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages will stay bearish for three periods or more. The status for our MACD is a bearish non-crossover with an overbought status for our stochastic.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is not minimal but expending. A bearish non-crossover will be the next status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The status for our stochastic and MACD is overbought. The bear trend will continue and could amplify.

Idea: like a quarterly bearish pre-parallel pattern.

R = MQ (10.08);    S= New Historical Low and – – –

 

Medium term: bearish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, a bearish crossover PW / MW occurred with a nice dynamic for UW.  A bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. A bearish non-crossover could be the next status for our stochastic. A bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: a dive is expected for some periods.

R = PD (9.2495), MD (9.4561);     S = NHL

 

Short term: bearish parallel pattern

On a daily basis, a bearish pattern is in progress.

Idea: use bearish parallel rules.

R = PD (9.2495), MD (9.4562);   S = NHL

 

Conclusion: As long as MD proves to be a resistance, a strong bear trend will continue to develop.

 

Long term: bearish

On a yearly basis, a bearish trend is in progress and Historical Low failed as a support.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands are diverging. The status for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is a bearish A type crossover. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought for 3 periods or more. On a monthly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: always bearish as long as UW (164.23) = resistance

R = UW (164.23);    S = LW (117.14)

 

Medium term: bearish parallel pattern is over

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is maximal. With a weekly close above MW (140.68), UW (164.23) is our next objective..

Idea: technical recovery in progress.

R = MW (140.68), UW (164.23);    S = LW (117.14).

 

Short term: higher

On a daily basis, LD is flat. A bullish non-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 days moving averages and with our MACD. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise will continue. UW (164.23) could be an objective.

Idea: rise but not bullish.

R = MW (140.68), UW (164.23);    S = MD (132.43)

 

Conclusion: towards UW (164.23)

 

Long term: bearish

On a yearly basis, a bearish T2 is in progress and Historical Low failed as a support.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands are diverging. The status for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is a bearish A type crossover. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought for 3 periods or more. On a monthly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: a collapse for some years.

R = MW (154.75);    S =  –

 

Medium term: bearish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use bearish parallel rules.

R = MW (154.75);    S = LW (109.71).

 

Short term: lower

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread was minimal until Tuesday when a close occurred below LD. Now this spread is increasing. The status for stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover and is an A type crossover for our 7 / 23 days moving averages. A bearish ATDMF pattern could begin today if yesterday low fails as a support.

Idea: daily bearish ATDMF pattern could develop today.

R = 128.85;   S = 123.94, -.

 

Conclusion: daily bearish ATDMF pattern could develop today (21/01/2009).

 

   Long term: towards LY (0.5374)

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is increasing. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. Next year, a bearish A type crossover could be the status for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. With a close below LQ (0.6516), LY (0.5374) will be a target.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is maximal but expending. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages a bearish A type crossover is in progress. A bearish divergence is in progress with our stochastic. Next objective will be LY (0.5374).

Idea: towards 0.4776 could be expected.

 

 

Editorial

 

Toutes les règles utilisées pour pratiquer l’ATDMF se vérifient au quotidien. Aucune adaptation de la méthode n’est nécessaire pour faire face à la situation actuelle et pour anticiper l’évolution prochaine (à court, moyen et long terme) des marchés. Il serait peut-être utile de s’en rendre compte et d’arrêter de pleurnicher sur l’imprévisibilité de la situation actuelle. Ces règles sont celles utilisées en Juillet 2001 pour anticiper (1) le plongeon des bourses qui a suivi les attentats du 11 septembre.

Actuellement, ceux qui se plaignent se sont ceux qui ne comprennent rien aux marchés financiers ou qui ont de mauvais outils. Il est rare de trouver une période qui présente autant d’opportunités pour faire de plus –values considérables en si peu de temps. Bien entendu il faut utiliser un money management compatible avec la situation actuelle. C’est le ba ba  de la gestion.

Nous avons l’embarras du choix pour se porter acheteur de Put (s) sur l’€ contre le Yen ou le CHF. Cette semaine, l’achat de Put sur AUD / USD semble également prometteur.

 

(1) Revue de l’AFATE (juillet 2001), boursorama (31/08/2001), réunion AFTE (12/09/2001)

              

 

AUD / USD.

 

 

 

Le texte suivant est traduisible à l’aide de Yahoo Babelfish.

 

Long term: below LQ (0.6609)?

On a quarterly basis, our stochastic and MACD are overbought. Bollinger bands spread is minimal. LQ (0.6609) is our first objective.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is maximal but expending. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages a bearish A type crossover will be in progress in 09. LQ could fail as a support. Next objective will be LY (0.5363).

Idea: bearish trend for 09.

 

Medium term: bearish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis; a bearish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic and our MACD. A bearish crossover PW / MW occurred and Bollinger band spread is always increasing.

Idea: very strong bearish trend.

 

Short term: bearish lrt term: no trend965Y (1.4243amilliales) enance personnelle.tellis

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is increasing. As long as our MACD is not oversold, the bear trend will continue or amplify.

Idea: buy Put

 

Conclusion: lower = buy Put

 

 

Editorial

 

 

Toutes les règles utilisées pour pratiquer l’ATDMF se vérifient au quotidien. Aucune adaptation de la méthode n’est nécessaire pour faire face à la situation actuelle et pour anticiper l’évolution prochaine (à court, moyen et long terme) des marchés. Il serait peut-être utile de s’en rendre compte et d’arrêter de pleurnicher sur l’imprévisibilité de la situation actuelle. Ces règles sont celles utilisées en Juillet 2001 pour anticiper (1) le plongeon des bourses qui a suivi les attentats du 11 septembre.

Actuellement, ceux qui se plaignent se sont ceux qui ne comprennent rien aux marchés financiers ou qui ont de mauvais outils. Il est rare de trouver une période qui présente autant d’opportunités pour faire de plus –values considérables en si peu de temps. Bien entendu il faut utiliser un money management compatible avec la situation actuelle. C’est le ba ba  de la gestion.

Nous avons l’embarras du choix pour se porter acheteur de Put (s) sur l’€ contre le Yen ou le CHF. Cette semaine, l’achat de Put sur AUD / USD semble également prometteur.

 

(1) Revue de l’AFATE (juillet 2001), boursorama (31/08/2001), réunion AFTE (12/09/2001)

             

 

AUD / USD.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Le texte suivant est traduisible à l’aide de Yahoo Babelfish.

 

   Long term: below LQ (0.6609)?

On a quarterly basis, our stochastic and MACD are overbought. Bollinger bands spread is minimal. LQ (0.6609) is our first objective.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is maximal but expending. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages a bearish A type crossover will be in progress in 09. LQ could fail as a support. Next objective will be LY (0.5363).

Idea: bearish trend for 09.

 

Medium term: bearish parallel pattern 

On a weekly basis; a bearish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic and our MACD. A bearish crossover PW / MW occurred and Bollinger band spread is always increasing.

Idea: very strong bearish trend.

 

Short term: bearish lrt term: no trend965Y (1.4243amilliales) enance personnelle.tellis

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is increasing. As long as our MACD is not oversold, the bear trend will continue or amplify.

Idea: buy Put