Archives pour la catégorie $ / JPY

USD / JPY: lower

Long term:  bearish on a long term basis

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are down. A PEI is the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. The decline in progress should continue for some periods. 

On a quarterly basis, a bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. A PEI is the status for our stochastic and MACD. A type I PEI could develop this year.

On a monthly basis; a bearish parallel pattern is always in progress. A PEI is in progress with our 7 / 23 months moving averages.

Idea: use monthly bearish parallel rules

Bet: a PEI could develop with our monthly stochastic.

R = PM (88.2);     S = 79.70 (Historical low), – – -.

 

Medium term: without trend

 On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands are flat. A bearish no-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. With an overbought status for our MACD, LW will be our next objective.

Idea: bearish as long as MW proves to be a resistance

Bet: as long as our 7 weeks moving average is down, a bear trend could develop.

R = MW (82.78);           S = LW (80.59)

 

Short term: decline

On a daily basis, Bollinger spread is wide; A PEI is in progress with our stochastic and MACD.LD is our next objective.

Idea: PEI with our 7 / 23 days moving averages

Bet: our stochastic is our leading indicator.

R = MD (82.50);   S = LD (81.34)

 

Conclusion: a bearish pattern could develop within 3 weeks on a weekly basis.

 

 

USD / JPY: lower

 

 

Long term:  new bear trend in progress

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are down. A bearish no-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages. Our stochastic is overbought (next period, same pattern will develop with our MACD), the decline in progress should continue for four periods. 

On a quarterly basis, a bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. A bearish no-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD. A qualification into a bearish parallel is not ruled out.

On a monthly basis; a bearish parallel pattern is always in progress. A bearish no-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The Bollinger bands spread is increasing. Stochastic and MACD are overbought. A collapse could develop before the end of 2010.

Idea: use monthly bearish parallel rules

Bet: lower than 1995 low (79.7)

R = MM (91.12);     S = 79.70 (Historical low), – – -.

 

Medium term: bear trend in progress

 On a weekly basis, a bearish A type crossover is in progress for our moving averages. The status for our MACD is a bearish no-crossover. A qualification into a bearish parallel qualification is in progress.

Idea: 79.7 will fail as a support

Bet: use bearish parallel rules

R = PW (84.18);           S = 1995 low (79.7), – – –

 

Short term:  bearish parallel pattern

On a daily basis, a qualification into a bearish parallel pattern is in progress.  

Idea:  use bearish parallel rules

Bet: towards Historical low.

R = PD (81.92);   S = LD (80.5), 80, 79.7, -.

 

Conclusion: below 79.7 is expected

 

 

 

 

USD / JPY: towards a new bear trend…

Long term:  new bearish trend in progress

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are slowly down. A bearish no-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages. Our stochastic is overbought (next period, same pattern could develop with our MACD), the decline in progress should continue for some periods. 

On a quarterly basis, a bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. A bearish no-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD. Bollinger bands spread will continue to extend. A qualification into a bearish parallel is likely.

On a monthly basis; a bearish parallel pattern is always in progress. A bearish no-crossover will develop with our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The Bollinger bands spread is increasing. Stochastic and MACD are overbought. A collapse could develop until the end of 2010.

Idea: use monthly bearish parallel rules

Bet: lower than 1995 low (79.7)

R = MM (92.12);     S = 79.70 (Historical low), – – -.

 

Medium term: bearish parallel qualification in September

 On a weekly basis, a bearish A type crossover is in progress for our moving averages. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish no-crossover. With the bearish trend, a qualification into a bearish parallel pattern will develop in September if last week high (86.37) proves to be a resistance.

Idea: 79.7 will fail as a support

Bet: in September, qualification into a bearish parallel pattern

R = 86.37, MW (89.88);           S = 1995 low (79.7), – – –

 

Short term:  new bearish pattern?

On a daily basis, a bearish no-crossover occurred with PD. With an overbought status for our MACD, a new bearish no-crossover will develop with our 7 / 23 days moving averages. With these statuses, a qualification into bearish parallels will be in hand. Otherwise, above MD, UD could be our main resistance.

Idea:  bearish until next week close

Bet: MD will act as a resistance

R = MD (86.23), UD (87.72);   S = 79.7, -.

 

Conclusion: lower

 

USD / JPY: lower

Long term:  MM (96.38) = strong resistance

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are slowly down. A bearish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages. Our stochastic is overbought. The decline in progress should continue for some periods.

On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is expending. A bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought with a bearish no-crossover in progress for each one. Decline will continue for some periods.

On a monthly basis; a bearish parallel pattern is always in progress.

Idea: use bearish parallel rules

Bet: bearish no-crossover for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages.

R = MM (96.38);     S = LM (84.08), 79.70 (Historical low), – – -.

 

Medium term: UW / LW spread is minimal

 On a weekly basis, MW failed as a support. Without a bearish no-crossover for our monthly MACD, LW should act as a support.

Idea: towards LW

Bet: bearish pre-parallel support

R = MW (90.24);           S = LW (87.67)

 

Short term: decline

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is expending. With our 7 / 23 weeks and days moving averages status, no bear trend could develop.

Idea: crossover PD / MD + dynamic for LD = new parallel pattern (intraday)

Bet: weekly 7 / 23 moving averages will decline

R = MD (91.52);   S = LW (87.67)

 

Conclusion: no opportunity

 

USD / JPY: lower

Long term:  MM (99.09) = strong resistance

On a yearly basis, a close occurred below LY and Bollinger bands are slowly down. A bearish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages. Our stochastic is overbought. The decline in progress could continue.

On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is expending. A bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought with a bearish non-crossover in progress for each one. Decline will continue for some periods.

On a monthly basis, UQ / LQ spread is far away from its minimal level. A bearish non-crossover for our 7 / 23 months moving averages is in progress.

Idea: 87.13 (current low) is our first objective.

R = MM (99.05);     S = 87.13, 79.70 (Historical low).

 

Medium term: decline without bearish pattern

 On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is increasing. With our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages, a bearish non-crossover is in progress. Our monthly MACD is not neutral: no bearish ATDMF pattern could develop on a weekly basis. As long as our weekly MACD is not oversold, the decline could amplify.

Idea: lower as long as MW = resistance

R = MW (94.33);           S = 87.13

 

Short term: main trend is down

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal. A bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 days moving averages. The status for our MACD is a bearish non-crossover. Decline will continue as long as MD proves to be a resistance.

Idea: nothing to do.

R = MD (91.27);   S = 87.13

 

Conclusion: weak on a medium term basis.

 

USD / JPY: lower

Long term:  MM (99.10) = strong resistance

On a yearly basis, a close occurred below LY and Bollinger bands are slowly down. A bearish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages. Our stochastic is overbought. The decline in progress could continue.

On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is expending. A bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought with a bearish non-crossover in progress for each one. Decline will continue for some periods.

On a monthly basis, UQ / LQ spread is far away from its minimal level. A bearish non-crossover for our 7 / 23 months moving averages is in progress.

Idea: 87.13 (current low) is our first objective.

R = MM (99.10);     S = 87.13, 79.70 (Historical low).

 

Medium term: decline without bearish pattern

 On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. With our 7 / 2 3 weeks moving averages, a bearish non-crossover is in progress. Our monthly MACD is not overbought: no bearish ATDMF pattern could develop on a weekly basis. Below 90.20, the decline could amplify.

Idea: lower as long as MW = resistance

R = MW (95.08);           S = 87.13

 

Short term: main trend is down

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal. A bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 days moving averages. Our MACD is neutral. Decline will continue as long as MD proves to be a resistance.

Idea: nothing to do.

R = MD (92.93);   S = 87.13

 

Conclusion: weak on a medium term basis.

 

USD / JPY : toppish

Long term:  MM (102.7) = strong resistance

On a yearly basis, a close occurred below LY and Bollinger bands are slowly down. A bearish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages. Our stochastic is overbought. A bullish non-crossover could develop with our MACD. The decline in progress could continue.

On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is increasing. A bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. Decline will continue for some periods. On a monthly basis, a bullish divergence is the status for our monthly stochastic. Our 7 / 23 months moving averages are not bullish for some month (bearish non-crossover in progress). As long as our 7 / 23 months moving averages are bearish, a rise is only a technical recovery.

Idea: LM (89.22) is our main objective.

R = MM (102.7);     S = LM (89.23)

 

Medium term: flat

 On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide. PW acted as a support without a bullish non-crossover as a status for our MACD. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise will continue.

Idea: technical recovery in progress.

R = UW (102.37);           S = MW (94.81), LW (87.24)

 

Short term: trading range

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal. With the weekly trend, no bear pattern could be expected. LD (96.35) is a strong support and UD (100.83) is our main resistance.

Idea: nothing to do.

R = UD (100.83);   S = LD (96.35)

 

Conclusion: LW (87.24) could be a target within some weeks.

 

$ / y : plus bas

Long term:  MM (103.46) = strong resistance

On a yearly basis, a close occurred below LY and Bollinger bands are slowly down. A bearish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages. Our stochastic is overbought. A bullish non-crossover could develop with our MACD. The decline in progress could continue.

On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is increasing. A bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. Decline will continue for some periods. On a monthly basis, a bullish divergence is the status for our monthly stochastic. Our 7 / 23 months moving averages are not bullish for some month (bearish non-crossover in progress). As long as our 7 / 23 months moving averages are bearish, a rise is only a technical recovery.

Idea: LM (89.12) is our main objective.

R = MM (103.46);     S = LM (89.13)

 

Medium term: flat

 On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide. MW is flat. With a close below MW (94.26), LW (86.65) is our next objective.

Idea: bearish A type crossover for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages.

R = 100;           S = MW (94.26), LW (86.65)

 

Short term: decline

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal and expending. With the weekly trend, no bear pattern could be expected. As long as our MACD is not oversold, the decline in progress could continue.

Idea: below MW (94.26)

R = MD (98.9);   S = MW (94.26), –

.

Conclusion: LW (86.65) could be a target within some weeks.

 

USD / JPY : 100 = maximum

Long term:  MM (104.38) = strong resistance

On a yearly basis, a close occurred below LY and Bollinger bands are flat. A bearish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages. Our stochastic is overbought. The decline in progress could continue.

On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is increasing. On a monthly basis, a bullish divergence is the status for our monthly stochastic. A recovery towards PM (100.91) or higher is expected.

Idea: above PM is not ruled out.

R = PM (100.91), MM (104.38);     S = MW (93.4).

 

Medium term: rise without a bullish trend

 On a weekly basis, UW (100.06) is our next target. With UW / LW spread, UW is a strong resistance.

Idea: above UW, the move is a technical rise.

R = PM (100.91);           S = MW (93.4)

 

Short term: higher?

On a daily basis, PD acts as a resistance. UD (100.7) is a strong resistance (UD / LD spread is not far away from its maximal level).

Idea: a technical decline is in progress.

R = PD (99.97), PM (100.91);   S = MD (97.30)

.

Conclusion: 100 should be a very strong resistance.

 

USD / JPY : fin d’année

 

Long term: rise above MM (104.38)

On a yearly basis, a close occurred below LY and Bollinger bands are flat. A bearish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages. Our stochastic is overbought. The decline in progress could continue.

On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is increasing. On a monthly basis, a bullish divergence is the status for our monthly stochastic. A recovery towards PM (100.91) or higher is expected.

Idea: above PM is not ruled out.

R = PM (100.91), MM (104.4);     S = MW (93.4).

 

Medium term: rise without bullish trend

 On a weekly basis, UW (99.94) is our next target. With UW / LW spread, UW is a strong resistance.

Idea: above UW, the move is a technical rise.

R = UW (99.94), PM (100.91);           S = MW (93.4)

 

Short term: higher?

On a daily basis, PD acted as a resistance for two days. If it acts as a resistance today, a decline towards MD (95.78) is not ruled out.

Idea: a technical decline is in progress.

R = PD (99.56), PM (100.91);   S = 96.58, MD (95.78)

.

Conclusion: year’s end for Japan.