Long term basis: not bullish
On a yearly basis, the status for our stochastic is overbought. With our 7 / 23 years moving averages, a bearish B type crossover will develop before 2014. As long as MY (end of period) proves to be a support, the recovery could continue. Next supports are 2003 low and LY.
On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is increasing with lower prices. A bearish no-crossover could be the status for our MACD (end of period). With this hypothesis, a collapse is in hand. Otherwise, above PQ, MQ is our next objective.
On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. With the quarterly trend, as long as MM proves to be a support, UM is our maximal target. With a close below MM, May 2010 low is our first objective and LM is the next one.
Idea: focus on our quarterly MACD status (end of period)
Bet: a bearish no-crossover with PQ could develop
R = UM (4158); S = MM (3555), May 2010 low (3287), LM (2950), 2003 low (2401), LY (897)
Medium term: rise?
On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. A bullish B type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. A bullish no-crossover is the status for our MACD. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise in progress will continue. Below MW, LW is our next objective.
Idea: focus on stochastic next week: overbought = decline, bullish no-crossover= rise
Bet: forget this time frame
R = PM (4026); S= MW (3655), MM (3555)
Short term: UD / LD spread is not minimal
On a daily basis, a very weak bullish no-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 days moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. As long as MD proves to be a support, UD is our first resistance. Below MD, LD is our next objective.
Idea: easier, early next week
Bet: below MD, MM could be a target.
R = UD (3911), PM (4026); S= MD (3795), LD (3679)
Conclusion: in early May, we wrote: long in S&P 500 and short in CAC 40. It’s always true.