Archives mensuelles : octobre 2010

Indices: buy US + sell CAC 40

Long term basis: not bullish

On a yearly basis, the status for our stochastic is overbought. With our 7 / 23 years moving averages, a bearish B type crossover will develop before 2014. As long as MY (end of period) proves to be a support, the recovery could continue. Next supports are 2003 low and LY.

On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is increasing with lower prices. A bearish no-crossover could be the status for our MACD (end of period). With this hypothesis, a collapse is in hand. Otherwise, above PQ, MQ is our next objective.

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. With the quarterly trend, as long as MM proves to be a support, UM is our maximal target. With a close below MM, May 2010 low is our first objective and LM is the next one.

Idea: focus on our quarterly MACD status (end of period)

Bet: a bearish no-crossover with PQ could develop

R = UM (4158); S = MM (3555), May 2010 low (3287), LM (2950), 2003 low (2401), LY (897)

Medium term: rise?

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. A bullish B type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. A bullish no-crossover is the status for our MACD. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise in progress will continue. Below MW, LW is our next objective.

Idea: focus on stochastic next week: overbought = decline, bullish no-crossover= rise

Bet: forget this time frame

R = PM (4026); S= MW (3655), MM (3555)

Short term: UD / LD spread is not minimal

On a daily basis, a very weak bullish no-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 days moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. As long as MD proves to be a support, UD is our first resistance. Below MD, LD is our next objective.

Idea: easier, early next week

Bet: below MD, MM could be a target.

R = UD (3911), PM (4026); S= MD (3795), LD (3679)

Conclusion: in early May, we wrote: long in S&P 500 and short in CAC 40. It’s always true.

10Y T-Note contract: lower

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Long term: higher on a yearly basis

On a yearly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bullish no-crossover. The same status is in progress for our stochastic and MACD. The rise in progress should extend for some periods. Current Historical high is only our first objective.

On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is wide and LQ is flat. A bullish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD were oversold at the same time. Current Historical high is only our first objective.

On a monthly basis, the spread for Bollinger bands spread is wide and bands are diverging. Our stochastic and MACD are not yet overbought.

Idea: as long as our monthly stochastic is not overbought, no correction could develop

Bet: bullish no-crossover for our stochastic is not ruled out.

R = 128.7, +++; S = MM (119.74)

Medium term: bullish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages are up. A bullish parallel is in progress. The rise could amplify.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: towards LW if PW fails as a support.

R = UW (127.97); S = MW (124.25), PW (123.66), LW (120.53)

Short term: lower but not bearish

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands are expending. A bearish no-crossover is the status for our stochastic. For our 7 / 23 days moving averages, a bearish A type crossover will develop. With our weekly moving averages trend, PW could be a support.

Idea: lower as long as our MACD is not oversold

Bet: MD is our main resistance.

R = MD (126.65); S = PW (123.66)

Conclusion: technical correction on a daily basis.

Formation ATDMF : économisez 500 €

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L’ATDMF 2010 n’a qu’un but : permettre à leurs utilisateurs de réaliser des plus-values sur des bases objectives (si certains concepts de l’ATDMF ne l’étaient pas, cela se saurait depuis longtemps).

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L’ATDMF est particulièrement performante dans une telle situation (incursion dans des territoires inconnus, violation des relations économiques standard, inaptitude / interdiction aux économistes de faire des prévisions sur la relique barbare, confrontation des principales nations sur son rôle / parité des devises), etc)

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Renseignements : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

EUR / JPY: monthly bullish divergence?

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Long term: lower?

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread is thin. A bearish pseudo-no crossover will develop with our 7 / 23 years moving averages. Next period, our MACD could be overbought. Below LY / PY a new historical low level is expected.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is expending. No bearish pattern could develop with our stochastic and MACD status. As long as our MACD is not oversold, the decline will continue.

On a monthly basis, UM is flat. A bullish divergence could develop next month. With this hypothesis, above MM, UM is our next objective.

Idea: MM is a strong resistance with a bearish no-crossover for our 7 / 23 months moving averages.

Bet: PM will act as a resistance

R = PM (121.09), MM (124.72), UM (143.04); S = PY (101.75)

Medium term: flat

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is thin and bands are flat. A bullish A type crossover will develop with our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages.

Idea: UW is a strong resistance

Bet: focus on our stochastic

R = UW (115.77); S = MW (111.5), LW (107.24)

Short term: weak?

On a daily basis, UD and MD are flat. As long as our stochastic is not oversold, MD will act as a resistance. With our MACD status, Bollinger bands are our main targets.

Idea: nothing to do

Bet: towards UD if MD fails as a resistance.

R = MD (113.79), UD (115.41); S= LD (112.15)

Conclusion: long with a monthly bullish divergence.

Crude oil: flat on a short term basis

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Yearly trend: higher

On a yearly basis, the pattern in progress looks like a parallel pattern. The current status for our MACD is a bullish no-crossover. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages are always on a bull trend.

Idea: higher with UY / LY spread increasing each week

Bet: 87.15 (2010 high) is our first resistance

Long term: neutral

On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is maximal. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bullish pseudo no-crossover could develop this year. MACD and stochastic indicators are without trend.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is shrinking but is far away from its minimal level. Our moving averages, stochastic and MACD are neutral.

Idea: a bullish no-crossover could be the status for our MACD

Bet: MM will act as a support

R= 87.15, UM (91.12); S= MM (72.27)

Medium term: recovery

On a weekly basis, UW and LW are up. Our 7 / 23 weekly moving averages are up. Stochastic and MACD indicators are oversold. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the recovery in progress will continue.

Idea: UM is a strong resistance

Bet: higher in October

R = UM (91.12); S = MW (77.48)

Short term: neutral

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is not minimal. With an oversold status for our MACD, a bullish no-crossover could develop with our 7 / 23 days moving averages. Above UD, UM is our next objective.

Idea: with an oversold status for our stochastic, UD will be a target

Bet: UD is our next target.

R = UD (84.83); S = MD (81.31)

Conclusion: above annual high is not ruled out (declining $?)

Indices, May forecasts always in progress: buy S&P sell CAC

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Long term basis: rise above MQ (at the close)

On a yearly basis, the status for our MACD is a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD and stochastic are overbought at the same period. As long as our M7 is up, the main pattern is always a bullish parallel one. Below MY, a collapse could develop.

On a quarterly basis, a bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages (a bearish no-crossover is not ruled out in 2011). MQ acts as a resistance. A bullish no-crossover is in progress with our stochastic. As long as MQ / UM proves to be a resistance, the rise in progress is only a technical recovery.

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide. The status for our 7 / 23 months moving is a weak bullish no-crossover. A bullish no-crossover is the status for our MACD. UM is our main target.

Idea: not bullish as long as MQ proves to be a resistance at the close

Bet: towards MQ (1210) if UM fails as a resistance (at the close).

R = PM (1196), UM (1256), +; S = MM (1041), LM (827).

Medium term: UW / LW spread is expending

On a weekly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is a bullish A type crossover. The status in progress for our stochastic is a bullish no-crossover. PM is our first objective.

Idea: higher for some weeks

Bet: above PM

R = PM (1196); S= MW (1105)

Short term: rise

On a daily basis, as long as M23 is up, a decline could be only a technical move. Below MD, LD is our next objective.

Idea: MD is a strong support

Bet: higher next week

R = PM (1196); S= MD (1160), LD (1132)

Conclusion: recovery in progress towards MQ (1210).

USD / JPY: lower

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Long term: new bear trend in progress

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are down. A bearish no-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages. Our stochastic is overbought (next period, same pattern will develop with our MACD), the decline in progress should continue for four periods.

On a quarterly basis, a bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. A bearish no-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD. A qualification into a bearish parallel is not ruled out.

On a monthly basis; a bearish parallel pattern is always in progress. A bearish no-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The Bollinger bands spread is increasing. Stochastic and MACD are overbought. A collapse could develop before the end of 2010.

Idea: use monthly bearish parallel rules

Bet: lower than 1995 low (79.7)

R = MM (91.12); S = 79.70 (Historical low), – – -.

Medium term: bear trend in progress

On a weekly basis, a bearish A type crossover is in progress for our moving averages. The status for our MACD is a bearish no-crossover. A qualification into a bearish parallel qualification is in progress.

Idea: 79.7 will fail as a support

Bet: use bearish parallel rules

R = PW (84.18); S = 1995 low (79.7), – – –

Short term: bearish parallel pattern

On a daily basis, a qualification into a bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use bearish parallel rules

Bet: towards Historical low.

R = PD (81.92); S = LD (80.5), 80, 79.7, -.

Conclusion: below 79.7 is expected

Crude oil: above 90 this year.

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Yearly trend: higher

On a yearly basis, the pattern in progress looks like a parallel pattern. The current status for our MACD is a bullish no-crossover. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages are always on a bull trend.

Idea: higher with UY / LY spread increasing each week

Bet: 87.15 (2010 high) is our first resistance

Long term: neutral

On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is maximal. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bullish pseudo no-crossover could develop this year. MACD and stochastic indicators are without trend.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is shrinking but is far away from its minimal level. Our moving averages, stochastic and MACD are neutral.

Idea: a bullish no-crossover could be the status for our MACD

Bet: MM will act as a support

R= 87.15, UM (91.18); S= MM (72.29)

Medium term: recovery

Idea: UM is a strong resistance

Bet: higher in October

R = UM (91.18); S = MW (77.1)

Short term: bullish parallel

On a daily basis, a bullish parallel qualification is in progress. PD failed as a support with M7 down.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: today, if PD acts as a resistance, next objective is MD

R = PD (84.43), UD (85.98); S = MD (79.81)

Conclusion: above annual high is not ruled out (declining $?)

CAC 40: weak rise in progress (gold is more bullish)

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Long term basis: not bullish

Idea: focus on our quarterly MACD status (end of period)

Bet: a bearish no-crossover with PQ could develop

R = UM (4155); S = MM (3553), May 2010 low (3287), LM (2951), 2003 low (2401), LY (897)

Medium term: rise

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. LW is not diverging. A bullish B type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. A bullish no-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise in progress will continue. Below MW, LW is our next objective.

Idea: not bullish

Bet: forget this time frame

R = UM (4155); S= MW (3619), LW (3406)

Short term: UD / LD spread is expending slowly

On a daily basis, a bullish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 days moving averages. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the recovery in progress could continue.

Idea: with the weak no-crossover as a status for our MACD, the rise could continue

Bet: a rise could develop, not a bullish trend.

R = PM (4026); S= MD (3752), LD (3678)

Conclusion: long in gold not in CAC 40.

Formation au trading sur l’or

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Vous avez suivi une formation de base ATDMF.

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Pour me contacter atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr