Archives mensuelles : mars 2009

Edito 31 mars. Fin de la reprise technique

 

Tout se passe comme prévu. La reprise technique des marchés, liée  aux arbitrages de fin de trimestre, s’est terminée la semaine dernière. Sur l’ensemble des marchés, aucun point significatif, sur un graphique hebdomadaire, n’a été dépassé. La tendance majeure observée lors du précédent trimestre va donc pouvoir se poursuivre et s’amplifier.  Il est possible que vos prévisions les plus extravagantes se réalisent. D’ici deux semaines, des objectifs vont faire rêver certains et laisseront perplexes nombres d’analystes traditionnels.

Si vous souhaitez profiter de l’anticipation des marchés pour réaliser des plus-values inimaginables, suivez une formation de base :

Les dates proposées sont les suivantes  (le lundi est facultatif):

Actions : avril : 11 & 12 ; mai : 9 & 10 ; 30 & 31 ; juin : 13 & 14

Devises : mai 2 & 3 ; 23 & 24 ; juin : 6 & 7, 27 & 28

 

Renseignement et inscription : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

Pétrole (WTI ) : fin de la reprise technique

Yearly trend: more declines is not ruled out

On a yearly basis; last period, MY acted as a support but T1 and PY price failed as supports. Our stochastic is overbought and our 7 / 23 years moving averages are not bearish.

Idea: with the stochastic status, 2008 low could fail as a support.

 

Long term: towards LQ (22.89)

On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is maximal. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bearish B type crossover will develop. Stochastic and MACD are overbought. LQ (22.89) could be a target as long as MQ (68.43) proves to be a resistance.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is maximal and expending. With our 7 / 23 months moving averages, a bearish A type crossover is in progress. Our stochastic will be oversold in more than two periods.

Idea: a bearish non-crossover could develop with our stochastic.

 

Medium term (May 09 contract): the recovery is over

On a weekly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress. Above PW (54.8) a recovery towards UW (58.7) could develop. But, last week; a bearish non-crossover between prices and PW occurred. This week a new low for prices is in progress. LW (41.01) is our first target. The UW / LW spread is minimal. With the bearish monthly trend, a bearish T1 and T2 could develop in April.

Idea: with a bearish T2, new low is not ruled out.

R = PW (54.8);       S = LW (41.01)

 

Short term (May 09 contract): towards LD (42.92) / LW (41.01)?

On a daily basis, a B type crossover could develop with our 7 / 23 days moving averages. Our MACD is overbought.  LD (42.92) / LW is our main target.

Idea: bearish pre-parallel pattern if LD / LW = support.

R = 52.37;   S = LD (42.92), LW (41.01)

 

Conclusion: lower if PW (54.8 may contract) act as a resistance.

 

Edito 27 mars 2009 : à la loupe

 

La semaine prochaine : en absence d’une poursuite soutenue de la hausse des indices, il sera envisageable de commencer à acheter des put warrants (échéance 6 à 9  mois). Le montant à acheter est calculé en se basant sur une valorisation à zéro. 30 % de la position globale permettent de commencer à pyramider.  Faut-il encore que nos critères de rentabilité soient respectés. Cependant, au vu de l’analyse de nos graphiques mensuels, le jeu en vaut la chandelle.Pour apprendre à travailler en utilisant l’anticipation du comportement des indicateurs, participez à une formation de base à l’ATDMF et soyez opérationnel à la fin de la formation.

Pour apprendre à travailler en utilisant l’anticipation du comportement des indicateurs, participez à une formation de base à l’ATDMF et soyez opérationnel à la fin de la formation.

Renseignements : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr et consultez la section Formation / training.

S & P 500 : reprise technique (une semaine?)

Long term basis: Yearly bearish divergence with our stochastic and MACD => 500 as a first target

On a yearly basis, the status for our MACD is a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD and stochastic are overbought at the same period: a sharp decline is expected. The collapse in progress could amplify. 500 and LY (180) are our next supports.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread increase. The dynamic for our 7 quarters moving average is strong and will increase as long as 1280 proves to be a resistance. A bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages (in Q2 2002 it was a bearish B type crossover).Since the end of March 08 a bearish divergence is the status for our MACD. This is the status for our stochastic since December 2007.  The bear move is in progress for 3 quarters at least.

On a monthly basis; a bearish crossover PM / MM + increase of the dynamic for UM. A bearish A type crossover is in progress for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The bear trend for our moving averages will increase until mid 2009 or +. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover. A bearish parallel pattern is in progress for some months (4 to 15?). 500 and LY (180) are our next targets. 

Idea: use bearish parallel rules (monthly time frame).

R = 868 (-8 weekly close);    S = 666 (current low), 500, -

 

Medium term: bearish as long as 868 (-8 weekly close) = resistance

On a weekly basis, our stochastic and MACD are oversold. As long as our 23 weeks moving average is bearish, a rise is only a technical recovery.  Above MW (830, at the close), UW (947) is our next objective.

Idea: if MW (831) acts as a resistance, a new drop is not ruled out in April.

R = MW (831), UW (947);    S= LW (714).

 

 Short term: UD / LD spread is wide.

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide but Bollinger bands spread is expending. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise could continue.

Idea: nothing to do with UD / LD spread.

R = MW (831), UW (947);      S= MD (748), LD (657).

 

Conclusion: as long as 868 prove to be a resistance, the rise is only a technical recovery (bearish on a monthly basis).

 

Edito 26/03 : la stupidité de la majorité des analystes techniques.

 

L’objet de l’analyse technique est de faire des prévisions. Pour se faire, la majorité des analystes techniques utilisent le comportement historique des cours et des indicateurs techniques. Cela revient à considérer que l’avenir d’un cours / indice/ actif financier est déterminé par les cours passés. Cette approche est absurde et digne d’un enfant de 12 ans. Il suffit de voir le comportement de nombreux titres depuis 18 mois pour en tirer les conclusions qui s’imposent. Ceci peut être aussi l’occasion de se poser des questions sur la validité prédictive d’une approche comme les vagues d’Elliott.

Pour faire des prévisions sur un actif, il est nécessaire d’anticiper le comportement des indicateurs utilisés. C’est en fonction de ces anticipations (mouvement exceptionnel ou non) que l’analyste devra baser sa décision d’opérer ou d’analyser un autre produit. C’est une différence majeure entre l’approche et analyses ATDMF et la majorité des autres techniques (mais il existe des exceptions).

Comparez les analyses ATDMF et celles de vos courtiers préférés et tirez-en les conclusions. Pour apprendre à travailler en utilisant l’anticipation du comportement des indicateurs, participez à une formation de base à l’ATDMF et soyez opérationnel à la fin de la formation.

Renseignements : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr et consultez la section Formation / training.

Pour une inscription validée avant le 6 avril, remise de 20 % soit 1 600 € au lieu de 2 000 € (2 jours) et 2 400 € au lieu de  3 000 € (3 jours), incluant le suivi durant deux mois.

10 Y T-Note : plus bas

Long term: bullish?

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are up. The status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bullish non-crossover. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold.  With a new high this year, the bull trend will continue.

On a quarterly basis; a bullish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD. On a monthly basis, a bullish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 moving averages (same pattern for our MACD). Pattern with our Bollinger bands is a bullish parallel one.

Idea: towards a new Historical high this year (but wait for the end of Q1 for stochastic / MACD patterns).

R = 128.7 (Historical high), +;    S = MM (116.06)

 

Medium term: recovery above PW (126.18)

On a weekly basis, a bullish non-crossover is the pattern in progress for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. Next status for our stochastic and MACD could be a bearish non-crossover. With this hypothesis, LW (118.14) could be our main target.

Idea: with UW / LW spread, LW is a strong support.

R = PW (126.18);      S = LW (118.14)

 

Short term: without trend

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide. With our 7 / 23 days moving averages a bullish A type crossover is in progress. MD (122.1) is our first support and LD (119.12) is the next one.

R = UD (125.08);       S = MD (122.1), LD (119.12)

 

Conclusion: lower on a short / medium term basis.  

 

Edito 25 mars. Violents mouvements sur les devises (et sur certains autres marchés)

 

Selon l’ATDMF; à la fin de la semaine prochaine, un mouvement d’une durée de 3 à 6 mois va se mettre en place. A la hausse ou à la baisse, cela n’a aucune importance du point de vue de l’analyste technique (il suffit d’être positionné dans le bon sens).

Si vous pratiquez l’ATDMF, cela ne représente pas un scoop. Sinon, vous pouvez participer à nos formations Renseignements : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr et voir la section formation / training.

€ / $ : violent mouvement long terme

Long term: monthly bearish non-crossover for our stochastic and MACD

On a yearly basis, Bollinger band spread is not minimal and LY is flat. Within two periods our 7 / 23 moving averages and stochastic will be neutral. MY (1.2052) is our first support.

On a quarterly basis, the trend for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is not bearish. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. Prices will move lower. Below MY (1.2052), LQ (1.1131) could be a target.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is maximal but a dynamic for each Bollinger band is in progress. A bearish A type crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover. 1.2330 (current low) is our first objective.

Idea: spread UM / LM will increase with lower prices.

R = MM (1.4355); S =1.2330, MY (1.2052), LQ (1.1131)

 

Medium term: focus on next week close

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is maximal. A bearish trend is in progress for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. But, next week a bullish A type crossover could develop. With this hypothesis, UW (1.4062) will be our first objective. Above this level, the rise could continue towards MM (1.4355). Otherwise; if PW (1.3885) acts as a resistance until the end of the first week of April, a collapse could develop. See also our 7 weeks dynamic. MW (1.3125) and LW (1.2188) are our April 09 objectives.

Idea: with a bearish non-crossover as a new status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages, one of the most powerful bear trend will develop.

R = PW (1.3885), UW (1.4062);   S = MW (1.3125), LW (1.2188)

 

Short term: bullish parallel pattern in progresslrt term: no trend965Y (1.4243amilliales) enance personnelle.tellis

On a daily basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules.

R = UD (1.3748);    S =PD (1.3107), MD (1.2969).

 

Conclusion: at the end of the first week of April, a 3 to 6 months trend will begin.

 

Position: Previous: out; Next: see conclusion; Since 01/01 = NS

 

Or : simple reprise technique

Yearly trend: bullish for more than 2 years.

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress. The dynamic for each band is very strong. PY will cross MY in more than two periods.

Idea: bullish non-crossover for our stochastic.

 

Long term: weak as long as PQ (1018.8) proves to be a resistance.

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is bullish. Next quarters, – 8 prices will increase. Without an increase for next prices, a bullish non-crossover could develop between our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. The status in progress for our stochastic is a weak bearish divergence. Above PQ (1018.8), a new bull trend could develop with a bullish non-crossover for our MACD and a strong bull trend for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide. A bullish non-crossover for our 7 / 23 months moving averages failed.  UM (1010) is our main resistance. MW (863) is a strong support.

Idea: UM is flat = main resistance

R = UM (1010);    S = MM (851.7)

 

Medium term: rise

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide. With an overbought status for our stochastic, UW (1002) is a strong resistance.

Idea: rise as long as our MACD is not overbought.

R = UW (1002) / UM (1010);    S = PD (929)

 

 

Short term: flat or rise?

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. With our 7 / 23 days moving averages a bullish A type crossover could develop Tuesday. With the weekly stochastic, the rise is only a technical move. As long as MD (929) proves to be a support, a rise could develop. If UD (958) acts as a resistance this week, MD will be our main objective.

 

R = UD (958), UM (1010);      S = MD (929).

  

 

Conclusion: not bullish as long as 1019 acts as a resistance.

 

CAC 40 : baissier à long terme

(Traduction posible à l’aide de Yahoo Babelfish)

Long term: towards 2400 or lower

On a yearly basis, see the dynamic for – 8 and next…MY failed as a support. 2400 is our first target. Our stochastic is overbought. 2400 should fail as a support. Below 2 000, LY (641) will be our next objective.

On a quarterly basis, our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages crossover is a bearish A type (with a Q1 close below 3084). In 2002, the 7 / 23 crossover was a B type. Our MACD is overbought and no oversold status is expected within two periods. A nice dynamic is in progress with each Bollinger band. In Q1 of 2003, Bollinger bands had a lesser dynamic than now. The decline from UQ will be different from the 2000 one if UQ continue to increase during Q2.  2400 is our next target.

On a monthly basis; a bearish parallel pattern is in progress for some periods. With a new bearish non-crossover as a status for our stochastic, a collapse is not ruled out.

Idea: very bearish as long as monthly bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

R = MW (3043), PM (3706);   S = 2400, 2000, LY (639)

 

Medium term: technical recovery

On a weekly basis, the trend for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is down. The June 2008 parallel pattern is always in progress.

Idea: use bearish parallel rules (short as long as MW proves to be a resistance at the end of a week)

R = MW (3043);     S = MD (2680), LD (2519)

 

Short term: UD (2841) could be a resistance

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is near its minimal level. With a close above UD; a technical recovery (not a bullish trend with the weekly trend) towards MW could develop. Otherwise; with a decline today and next week, and if MD (2680) = support, a bullish pre-parallel pattern could develop. Below MD, LD (2519) is our next objective.

Idea: wait the second week of April for a specific trend.

R = UD (2841), MW (3043);     S= MD (2680), LD (2519)

 

Conclusion: bearish on a monthly (and higher) time frame.