Archives pour la catégorie € / CHF

EUR / CHF: focus on daily time frame

Long term: bearish for some years

On a yearly basis, a PEI is in progress with our moving averages.

On a quarterly basis, a type II is in progress.

 On a monthly basis, a type III is in progress.

Idea: very powerful bear trend

Bet: towards 1???

R = PM (1.3241);    S= LM (1.1853), —

 

Medium term: bearish parallel

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread was a minimal / reference one. A bearish parallel pattern is in progress.  

Idea: use bearish parallel rules

Bet: PEI for our stochastic and MACD

R = MW (1.2735);     S = LM (1.1853), —

 

 

Short term: bearish parallellrt term: no trend965Y (1.4243amilliales) enance personnelle.tellis

On a daily basis, a bearish parallel is in progress.

Idea: use bearish parallel rules

Bet: new sell-off if PD = resistance until next Tuesday.

 

R = PD (1.2289);   S = LD (1.1997)

 

Conclusion: large sell-off with a new bearish PEI for our weekly stochastic and MACD.

 

€ / CHF: towards 1, but not this year…

   Long term: bearish for some years

On a yearly basis, a PEI is in progress with our moving averages.

On a quarterly basis, a type II is in progress.

 On a monthly basis, a type III is in progress.

Idea: very powerful bear trend

Bet: towards 1???

R = PM (1.3241);    S= LM (1.1875), —

 

Medium term: bearish parallel

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread was a minimal / reference one. A bearish parallel pattern is in progress.  

Idea: use bearish parallel rules

Bet: lower

R = MW (1.2815);     S = LM (1.1875), —

  

Short term: bearish parallel

On a daily basis, a bearish pre-parallel occurred.

Idea: use bearish parallel rules

Bet: with a PEI as a status for our MACD, a sell-off is likely.

 

R = PD (1.2323);   S = LD (1.2139)

 

Conclusion: sell-off as long as MD = resistance.

 

€ / CHF: below 1.24

Long term: lower

On a yearly basis, Bollinger band spread is expending. A PEI is in progress with our moving averages. A new Historical low is expected.

On a quarterly basis, a type II is in progress.

On a monthly basis, a type III is in progress.

Idea: use monthly bearish parallel rules

Bet: lower on a yearly basis.

R = PM (1.3241); S= 1.2402 (Historical low), LM (1.2045), -

Medium term: flat

nend of a month, LM (1.1619222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands are flat. TAM tools will continue to decline. Below PW, more weakness is ahead.

Idea: as long as MW = resistance, a rise is only a technical recovery

Bet: next month, a new bear trend is not ruled out.

R = MW (1.2859); S = PW (1.2487)

Short term: lowerlrt term: no trend965Y (1.4243amilliales) enance personnelle.tellis

On a daily basis, a PEI is in progress with our moving averages.

Idea: lower as long as our MACD is not oversold

Bet: PEI with our MACD.

R = MD (1.2805); S = PW (1.2487)

$ / CHF: towards .9 and —

Long term: bearish

 On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are expending. A PEI is in progress with our moving averages and with our stochastic. The bear trend will continue for two periods or more.

On a quarterly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is a reference one. A PEI is in progress with our moving averages and with our stochastic.

Idea: lower

Bet: new Historical Low this and next years

R =MM (1.0341);     S = new low

 

Medium term: bearish?

On a weekly basis, a type III occurred. Bollinger bands spread is a reference one and is expending. A PEI is in progress with our moving averages.

Idea: bearish

Bet: new Historical Low before June.  

R = PW (.9746);    S = towards .9 or below.

 

Short term: lower

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is above a reference one. TAM will move lower. Current pattern is similar to a type II.

Idea: lower without a bearish pattern

Bet: PEI for our stochastic.

R = PD (.9455);     S= .9

 

Conclusion: short with a next weekly low (Vs last week)

 

€/ CHF: towards parity????

Long term: collapse in progress

 On a yearly basis, UY / LY spread is minimal. A bearish no-crossover is in progress for some periods with our 7 / 23 years moving averages. Our stochastic is overbought and the same status is expected for our MACD.

 On a quarterly basis, Bollinger Bands spread is expending dramatically. The trend for our stochastic, MACD and 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is bearish. As long as our MACD is not oversold, the collapse in progress will continue or expend.

On a monthly basis, the status for our stochastic and 7 / 23 monthly moving averages is a bearish no-crossover. Next period, a bearish crossover PM / MM will occur with an increase of UM / LM spread. A new bearish parallel pattern will be in hand.  

Idea: add short positions

Bet: yearly MACD will be overbought in early 2011

R = MW (1.3812);     S = -, –, — (towards 1.000???)

 

Medium term: Bearish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use bearish parallel rules. 

Bet: lower

R = MW (1.3812);    S = -, –

 

Short term: towards a bearish parallel qualification

On a daily basis, a bearish crossover PD / MD is expected with lower prices. A qualification into a bearish parallel pattern will be in hand. 

Idea: add short position with a new bearish pattern

Bet: a bearish no-crossover for our daily stochastic will add pressure on prices

R = MD (1.3511);     S= -

 

Conclusion: add new short position (weekly and monthly basis)

 

€ / CHF: weak

Long term: collapse in progress

 On a yearly basis, UY / LY spread is minimal. A bearish no-crossover is in progress for some periods with our 7 / 23 years moving averages. Our stochastic is overbought and the same status is expected for our MACD.

 On a quarterly basis, Bollinger Bands spread is expending dramatically. The trend for our stochastic, MACD and 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is bearish. As long as our MACD is not oversold, the decline in progress will continue or expend.

On a monthly basis, the trend for our stochastic, MACD and 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is bearish. As long as our MACD is not oversold, the decline in progress will continue or expend.

Idea: lower and lower until 2011 or +

Bet: yearly MACD will be overbought in early 2011

R = MM (1.4889);     S =  -, –, —

 

Medium term: bearish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use bearish parallel rules. 

Bet: lower

R = MW (1.435);    S = -

 

Short term: bearish no-crossover with PD

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread was maximal but continue to increase. PD acted as a resistance. This morning, a new low have been done. A new bear trend could develop with an overbought status for our MACD.

Idea: lower

Bet: below 1.35

R = PD (1.4041);     S= 1.35, -

 

Conclusion: towards 1.35 and 1.3 and 1?

 

€ / CHF : reprise technique court terme?

Long term: flat

On a yearly basis; our moving averages are flat, a bullish non-crossover could develop with our stochastic and MACD. This time frame is without trend.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands are diverging and a close occurred below LQ. The status for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is a bearish A type crossover. Our stochastic and MACD are not oversold. On a monthly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: bearish as long as PM (1.5581) acts as a resistance.

R = PM (1.5581);    S = LW (1.4609)

 

Medium term: without trend

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is maximal. A bullish A type crossover could be the status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. UW (1.5625) is our main resistance.

Idea: no opportunity.

R = UW (1.5625);     S = MW (1.5117), LW (1.4609).

 

Short term: recovery?

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread wide. A bullish non-crossover could develop with our 7 / 23 days moving averages. With this hypothesis, PD (1.5432) and UD (1.563) are our objectives. With a close below MD (1.5146), LD (1.4662) will be a target.

Idea: rise with a bullish non-crossover for our 7 / 23 days moving averages.

R = PD (1.5432), UD (1.563);             S = LD (1.4662).

 

Conclusion: nothing to do.

 

Eur / CHF: Outlook for 2009

Long term: below LY (1.4054)?

On a yearly basis, stochastic could be overbought next year and a bearish non-crossover could be the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal + increase. Next year, the status for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages will be a bearish A type crossover. Stochastic and MACD are overbought (bearish non-crossover could be a status for our MACD). LY (1.4055) is our first support.

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is maximal but expending. PM acted as a resistance (bearish non-crossover) and crossed MM. A bearish non-crossover is the status for our MACD and for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. LY (1.4054) is our first support. Our main trend is a bearish parallel pattern

Idea: bearish yearly T1 in 2010 could develop if UY is up.