Archives pour la catégorie Contrat 10 Y T-Note

US 10 Y T-Note: warning

Long term: higher

On a yearly basis: Bollinger Bands are expending and a PEI is in progress for each component of TAM tools. The up trend should continue for two periods or more.

On a quarterly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

On a monthly basis, a type I is in progress.

Idea: use monthly bullish parallel rules

Bet:  Historical new high is not ruled out.

R= PM (135.05), UM (136.73);    S= MM (130.93)

Medium term: weak

On a weekly basis, Bollinger Bands spread is minimal. TAM tools are down without any PEI / NEI.

Idea: use our stochastic as a leading indicator

Bet: lower as long as MW= resistance.

R= MW (132.84);   S= LD (131.55), MM (130.93)

Short term: higher

On a daily basis, a bullish no-crossover is in progress with our stochastic and MACD.

Idea:  use our stochastic as a leading indicator

Bet:  nothing to do.

R= UD (132.85);   S= MD (132.1)

Conclusion: on a medium term basis, weak as long as MW= resistance.

10 Y T. Note: lower without a bearish trend

Long term: higher

On a yearly basis: Bands are expending and a PEI is in progress for each component of TAM tools. The up trend should continue for two periods or more.

On a quarterly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

On a monthly basis, a type I is in progress.

Idea: use monthly bullish parallel rules

Bet:  Historical new high is not ruled out.

R= UM (138.15);    S= MM (129.1)

Medium term: lower

On a weekly basis, a close below LW is likely. UW is flat and our monthly moving averages are up.

Idea: use our MACD as a leading indicator

Bet: towards MM.

R= MW (133.47), UW (134.84);   S= MM (129.1)

Short term: T2?

On a daily basis, a T2could develop today if a type A is in progress with our moving averages. Bollinger bands spread is a “limit” reference one.

Idea:  with a T2, use it only for intraday trading

Bet:  sell-off below 131.7 (14/9 low).

R= MD (133.17);   S= 131.7.

Conclusion: bearish with a daily T4.

10 Y T-Note: new Historical high this summer

Long term: bullish

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread is increasing. The status for TAM tools is a PEI for each one. As long as no NEI will develop on a monthly basis, the rise in progress could extend for some periods.

On a quarterly basis, a bullish no-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. The pattern in progress is a parallel one.

On a monthly basis, a type I is in progress.

Idea: use monthly bullish parallel rules

Bet: end of the current financial world within two years.

R = UM (137.4),   + + + ;    S = PM (129.79)

Medium term (Sept. 2012contract): type I in progress

On a weekly basis a type I occurred.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: higher.

R = UW (136.21)   S = PW (132.8), MW (131.69)

Short term: bullish parallel pattern

On a daily basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: higher.

R = UD (135.11);    S = MD (134.03)

Conclusion: bullish for some months.

10 Y T-Note contract: new historical high is not ruled out

Long term: bullish

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread is increasing. The status for TAM tools is a PEI for each one. As long as no NEI will develop on a monthly basis, the rise in progress could extend for some periods.

On a quarterly basis, a bullish no-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. The pattern in progress is a parallel one.

On a monthly basis, a type II could be the next status.

Idea: rise as long as MM = support

Bet: a PEI could be the next status for MACD.

R = 132.35 (Historical High),   + + + ;    S = MM (125.91)

Medium term (June 2012contract): wait

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is minimal. A PEI could be the next status for our moving averages.

Idea: MACD could be oversold

Bet:  with a bear trend for LW, a bullish T1 is likely.

R = UW (131.93)   S = MW (130.21)

Short term: a type II could develop

On a daily basis, tonight, a type II could be in hand.

Idea: with a type II, a new Historical high is expected

Bet: UD / LD spread will continue to increase.

R = UW (131.93);    S = MD (129.39)

Conclusion: nothing to do this week.

In April, new speech for Bernanke

Long term: bullish

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread is increasing. The status for TAM tools is a PEI for each one. As long as no NEI will develop on a monthly basis, the rise in progress could extend for some periods.

On a quarterly basis, a bullish no-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. The pattern in progress is a parallel one.

On a monthly basis, the spread for Bollinger bands is above a reference one. A new status could develop for TAM tools.

Idea: rise as long as MM = support

Bet: long term trend will be done next quarter with monthly TAM status.

R = 132.35 (Historical High),   + + + ;    S = MM (125.63)

Medium term (June 2012contract): out

On a weekly basis, a bearish no-crossover is the status for our MACD.

Idea: lower as long as our MACD is not oversold

Bet:  monthly TAM tools will be overbought.

R = MW (129.99)   S = LW (128)

Short term: decline

On a daily basis, a NEI will continue on the weekly time frame.

Idea: lower as long as our MACD is not oversold

Bet: lower until early April.

R = MD (130.76);    S = LW (127.96)

Conclusion: nothing to do this week.

10 Y T-Note: not yet bearish

Long term: bullish

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread is increasing. The status for TAM tools is a PEI for each one. As long as no NEI will develop on a monthly basis, the rise in progress could extend for some periods.

On a quarterly basis, a bullish no-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. The pattern in progress is a parallel one.

On a monthly basis, the spread for Bollinger bands is above a reference one. A new status could develop for TAM tools.

Idea: rise as long as MM = support

Bet: long term trend will be done next quarter with the new monthly TAM status.

R = 132.35 (Historical High),   + + + ;    S = MM (125.65)

Medium term (June 2012contract): out

On a weekly basis, a bearish no-crossover is the status for our MACD.

Idea: next month, a bearish pattern could develop

Bet:  new bear trend if Bollinger spread increase.

R = MW (129.99)   S = LW (127.96)

Short term: decline

On a daily basis, no PEI is in progress with TAM tools.

Idea: lower as long as our MACD is not oversold

Bet: a type I or II could develop.

R = MD (130.76);    S = LW (127.96)

Conclusion: nothing to do this week.

10 Y T-Note: higher

Long term: bullish

On a yearly basis, the status for TAM tools is a bullish no-crossover. The rise in progress could extend for some periods. Current Historical high is our first objective.

On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is wide. A bullish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. A PEI is not ruled out with our stochastic and MACD. UQ is our first objective.

On a monthly basis, the spread for Bollinger bands is above a reference one. TAM tools are neutral.

Idea: recovery as long as MM = support

Bet: none

 R = UM (126.88);    S = MM (120.84), PM (117.92)

 

Medium term (September contract): bullish

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is increasing. A PEI is in progress with our stochastic and MACD.

Idea: bullish as long as our MACD is not overbought

Bet: a type II is expected.

R = PM (123.72);    S = PW (118)

 

  

Short term: Bullish parallel

On a daily basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: higher.

R = PM (123.72);    S = MD (121.48)

 

Conclusion: higher on a medium term basis.

 

10 Y T-Note: with a daily type II PEI, add TYO

Long term: towards LM

On a yearly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bullish no-crossover. The same status is in progress for our stochastic. The rise in progress could extend for some periods. Current Historical high is our first objective.

On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is wide. A bullish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD could be overbought at the close. Current Historical high or MQ could be an objective.

On a monthly basis, the spread for Bollinger bands spread is above a reference one. A bearish A type crossover could develop this year with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. LM could be a target.

Idea: LM is a strong support.

Bet: with a close below MM, LM as a target is likely.

 R = MM (120.1);    S =MQ (115.16), LM (113.69)

 

Medium term: lower for some weeks

On a weekly basis, PEI are in progress with TAM. MQ is our first target.

Idea: MW is a strong resistance

Bet: bearish below MQ.

R = MW (122.98);    S = MQ (115.16)

  

Short term: Bollinger bands spread is expending

On a daily basis, a type I or II PEI is expected.

Idea: wait for PEI

Bet: type II.

R = MD (120.1);    S = MQ (115.16)

 

Conclusion: with a daily type II PEI add TYO.

 

10 Y T-Note: focus…

Long term: towards LM is not ruled out

On a yearly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bullish no-crossover. The same status is in progress for our stochastic. The rise in progress could extend for some periods. Current Historical high is our first objective.

On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is wide. A bullish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. Current Historical high could be an objective.

On a monthly basis, the spread for Bollinger bands spread is wide and bands are flat. A bearish A type crossover could develop this year with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. LM could be a target.

Idea: LM is a strong support.

Bet: lower below last month low (118.53).

 R = MM (119.79);    S = 118.53, PQ (115.43), LM (113.14)

 

Medium term: lower for some weeks

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread was a reference one and continue to expend. A bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. A PEI is in progress with our stochastic. A NEI is in progress on the monthly pattern.

Idea: MW is a strong resistance

Bet: towards 118.53

R = MW (124.12);    S = 118.53

  

Short term: Bollinger bands spread is minimal

On a daily basis, a bearish no-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 days moving averages. Below PD, our stochastic and MACD will be overbought. With this hypothesis, a decline without a bearish pattern (a qualification is expected next week) will develop.

Idea: very weak with an overbought status for our MACD

Bet: PD will fail as a support.

R = MD (119.99);    S = PD (118.89), -

 

Conclusion: lower below PD

 

 

10 Y T-Note: without trend (medium term)

On a yearly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bullish no-crossover. The same status is in progress for our stochastic and MACD. The rise in progress should extend for some periods. Current Historical high is only our first objective.

On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is wide but increasing. A bullish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD were oversold at the same time. Current Historical high is only our first objective.

On a monthly basis, the spread for Bollinger bands spread is wide and bands are diverging. Our stochastic and MACD are not yet overbought.

Idea: as long as our monthly stochastic is not overbought, no correction could develop                                

Bet: bullish no-crossover for our stochastic is not ruled out.

 R = 128.7, +++;    S = MM (119.91)

 

Medium term: bullish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages are up. A bullish parallel is in progress. The rise could amplify.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: towards LW if PW fails as a support.

R = UW (127.99);    S = MW (124.58), PW (123.9), LW (121.17)

 

  

Short term: without trend

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands are flat and the spread is thin. Our indicators are neutral. With our weekly moving averages trend LD will be a strong support.

Idea: neutral

Bet: nothing to do.

R = UD (127.67);    S = PW (125.55)

 

Conclusion: nothing to do until January 2011.