Archives mensuelles : février 2010

Edito : oubliez les indices et actions

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Jusqu’ à la publication aux USA des résultats du 1 er trimestre (15 avril), les marchés actions seront en trading-range. Difficile de réaliser  des plus-values. En revanche, le jeu à la mode est  et restera les opérations sur devises. Ces actifs présentent actuellement une forte tendance. Il est donc plus facile de réaliser des bonnes performances. Une formation spécifique est indispensable pour opérer sur ce marché car les mouvements sont rapides et souvent violents.

 

J’organise cette formation d’une durée d’une semaine. De nombreuses opérations sont effectuées sur votre compte réel et sur un compte de démonstration pour vous montrer certains détails.

Renseignements : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

3 months Eurodollar: higher

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Long term:  higher

On a yearly basis, a bullish non-crossover occurred between prices and PY. This pattern is very bullish.

On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is maximal and Bollinger bands are diverging. A bullish crossover PQ / MQ occurred and the dynamic for LQ continue. Stochastic and MACD are oversold for 2 periods or more (a bullish non-crossover is in progress). The dynamic for our 7 quarters moving average is strong. A bullish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 2 3 quarters moving averages. A new bull trend could be in progress.

On a monthly basis (June 2010 contract) a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: very bullish as long as a bearish A type crossover is not expected on a daily basis.

Bet: none

R= 100; S = MW (99.415)

 

Medium term: higher

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal. A bullish no-crossover is in progress with our stochastic. A bearish no-crossover is in progress with our MACD. UW is our main resistance.

Idea: nothing to do

Bet:

R = UW (99.751);         S = LD (99.561)

 

Short term: Bollinger bands spread increase

On a daily basis; with our weekly MACD, no bullish pattern could develop. Our stochastic, MACD and moving averages are up with a bullish no-crossover as a status. UW is our main objective.

Idea: up as long as our MACD is not overbought

Bet: rise for some weeks.

R = UW (99.751);         S = MD (99.589)

 

Conclusion: higher for some weeks.

 

£ / $: same as € / $

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Long term: bearish as long as a monthly bearish parallel pattern is in progress

On a yearly basis, LY is flat. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages are neutral but a bearish A type crossover will develop. Above MY (at the close), the recovery could extend. Otherwise, LY will be a target.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger Bands spread look toppish. Our stochastic and MACD are not yet oversold. A bearish no-crossover could be the next status for our stochastic. A bearish A type crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 quarters moving. Lower prices are likely.

On a monthly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress but PM failed as a resistance (M7 is up and position is now only 50 % from the initial one). A bearish no-crossover will develop with our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The status for our stochastic could be overbought next period. As long as MM proves to be a resistance, a decline is expected.

Idea: use bearish parallel rules for monthly pattern.

Bet: a bearish no-crossover will develop with our quarterly stochastic.

R = MM (1.6161, end of month);      S = PM (1.4777), LM (1.3394).

 

Medium term: UW / LW spread is expending

On a weekly basis, with our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages, a bearish A type crossover is in progress. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish no-crossover. Before the end of March, a qualification into bearish parallel pattern could be in hand.

Idea: Lower as long as our MACD is not oversold

Bet: UW trend will continue to increase

R = MD (1.5711);        S = PM (1.4777).

 

Short term: decline

On a daily basis, a decline is in progress. As long as our MACD is not oversold, the decline will continue.

Idea: nothing to do

Bet: MD will act as a resistance.

 

R = MD (1.5711);           S= PM (1.4777).   

Conclusion: soon, LM will be a target for 2010.

 

L’ATDMF 2010 remplace Elliott

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Utilisateurs des vagues d’Elliott, abandonnez cette approche désuète des marchés financiers en adoptant l’ATDMF 2010. Cette approche permet en moins d’une minute de calculer les objectifs de temps et d’amplitude sur toutes les unités de temps. Ce travail, demande pour un analyste expérimenté dans l’utilisation des vagues d’Elliott, un minimum de 20 minutes (l’utilisation de l’approche Elliott  implique un calcul de la durée et de l’amplitude attendue des mouvements). Ceux qui se contentent seulement d’analyser l’amplitude ne pratiquent pas la méthode d’Elliott.

Avec l’ATDMF 2010, les calculs de anticipation du temps et de l’amplitude se font  en lisant les graphiques spécifiques de l’ATDMF. Ceci demande quelques dizaines de secondes. Avec Elliott, dans la quasi-totalité des cas, les règles utilisées permettent seulement de constater les mouvements réalisés. Un opérateur a besoin d’utiliser un système qui permet d’anticiper les mouvements. Cette condition est rarement  possible avec Elliott. En respectant les règles de  l’ATDMF 2010, l’anticipation des mouvements significatifs se fait avec une grande fiabilité.

Formation ATDMF 2010 renseignements sur les dates : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

CAC 40: end of multi-months recovery (soon)

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Long term basis: technical recovery in progress (will finish before April?)

On a yearly basis, the status for our stochastic is overbought. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages are up but have a look on  – 8, – 7 , -6  prices).

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands are flat but LQ / UQ spread could / will increase with lower prices. The bearish trend for our 7 quarters moving average will continue for the next period.  The bearish B type crossover could be modified into a bearish A type crossover. At the end of the period, a bearish no-crossover could be the status for our MACD (same for our stochastic). With this hypothesis, a significant collapse will be in hand.

On a monthly basis; with our 7 / 23 months moving averages, a bearish no-crossover / or a pseudo no-crossover is not ruled out. With this hypothesis, a bearish no-crossover will be the status for our quarterly MACD. A collapse will be a weak word for the move ahead.

Idea: Below MM, LQ could be a short term objective.

Bet: bearish no-crossover as a status for our quarterly MACD

R = MW (3795), UD (3858);    S = MM (3517), LQ (2763), LM (2607)

 

Medium term: weak if MW proves to be a resistance

On a weekly basis, Bollinger Bands spread is minimal. A bearish A type crossover could develop with our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. With the monthly trend no bear pattern could develop.

Idea: UW target is unlikely

Bet: bearish no-crossover as a status for our stochastic.

 

R = MW (3795), UD (3858)               S= LD (3526)  

 

 

Short term: UD / LD spread is maximal

On a daily basis, M23 will continue to decline. UD is our maximal objective. Below MD, LD is our next target

Idea: recovery as long as our MACD is not overbought.

Bet: next week, LD will act as a support.

R = UD (3858);     S= MD (3705), LD (3545)

 

Conclusion: with a bearish no-crossover as a status for our quarterly MACD, a multi-months collapse will be in hand.

 

€ / $: lower within two weeks?

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Long term: lower

On a yearly basis, Bollinger band spread is not minimal, Bollinger bands could be flat. Our 7 / 23 moving averages will be without main trend. Our stochastic could be overbought next period.

On a quarterly basis, the status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish no-crossover. As long as MQ proves to be a support, a technical decline is in progress. Below MQ (at the close), LQ will be our main target.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is maximal. A bearish A type crossover will be the next status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The status for our stochastic and MACD is overbought. As long as MM proves to be a resistance, LM could be a target.

Idea: with a bearish A type crossover for our monthly moving averages, the bear trend will extend.

Bet: MM will act as a resistance

R = MM (1.3994), UY (1.5109);    S= MQ (1.3571), LM (1.2433)

 

Medium term: next pattern could be a bearish parallel one

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread was thin when a close below LW occurred. If UW trend is up for two periods, a bearish parallel qualification will be in hand for our weekly pattern. 

Idea: a new bearish parallel pattern will develop if MD acts as a resistance this week

Bet: bearish no-crossover for our stochastic.

R = MD (1.3861);     S = MQ (1.3571)

 

Short term: bearish parallel patternlrt term

On a daily basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use bearish parallel rules

Bet: as long as M23 trend is down, a recovery is only a technical recovery.

R = MD (1.3861), UD (1.4216);   S = LD (1.3506)

 

Conclusion: with a weekly bearish parallel pattern, LM could be a target this year.

 

Edito : un nouveau « jeu » pour les analystes et opérateurs

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La reprise des cours de l’or a coïncidé avec la fin du sommet de Bruxelles sur l’aide de l’€pe à la Grèce. Nous avions raison de répondre non, dans les commentaires, à une question sur la relation entre la supposée baisse de l’or et la hausse du dollar.

Je répète que la spécificité de l’ATDMF est d’anticiper, à court terme, la présence de certaines informations exceptionnelles afin de pouvoir prévoir l’évolution des cours. Ceci permet, même en présence d’une situation inédite, de faire des prévisions et de prendre position.

Il est de plus en plus évident que la faiblesse de l’Europe se mesurera par rapport à la hausse des cours de l’or.

 La question de la semaine : à partir de quel niveau des cours de l’or, l’explosion de la structure Europe sera irréversible ? Au-dessus de 1250$ durant une semaine, les choses devraient s’accélérer.

Nikkeï 225 : lower

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Long term: technical recovery

On a yearly basis, our 7 / 23 moving averages have a down trend. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. LY is our first support.

 On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is wide but extend. For our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bearish A type crossover is in progress. Our stochastic and MACD are not oversold (a bearish no-crossover could develop). LQ is our main target.

On a monthly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages is a bearish no-crossover.  Our stochastic and MACD are not yet overbought. . With a close below MM, LM could be a target.

Idea: end of the multi-months recovery with a close below MM.

Bet: buy long term put.

R = UM (13461);     S = MM (9834), PM (8328), LM (6894)

 

Medium term: UW / LW spread is minimal

On a weekly basis, UW and LW are flat. With our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages, a bearish A type crossover will develop. LW is our next objective.

Idea: not yet bearish

Bet: bearish after year’s end.

R = MW (10131);   S = LW (9315)

 

Short term: bearish without pattern

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread was minimal and expending when a close occurred below LD. With the weekly status, the bear trend is only a technical decline.

Idea: same trend as long as our MACD is not oversold

Bet: MD will act as a resistance.

R = PD (10386);   S = LW (9315)

 

Conclusion: weak and bearish after the end of Q1.

Position:   Previous: nothing, in progress: nothing, next: nothing