Archives mensuelles : février 2010

10 Y T-Note: without trend

Laisser une réponse

Long term: PQ is a strong support

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread is shrinking. The trend for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is slightly up. Our stochastic is oversold with a weak bullish no-crossover.

On a quarterly basis, LQ could turn up but the UQ / LQ spread is wide. A bullish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought with a bearish divergence for our stochastic. As long as PQ proves to be a support, the decline in progress is only a technical move.

On a monthly basis, a bearish divergence is in progress for our stochastic with a bearish no-crossover for stochastic and MACD. LM / PQ is our main objective.

Idea: if LM = support, a bearish pre-parallel pattern could develop

Bet: MM is our main resistance

 R = MM (118.54), UM (124.74);    S = PQ (111.7), MY (110.37)

 

Medium term: without trend

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands are flat. Our moving averages are flat. This time frame is without trend.

Idea: bearish no-crossover for our 7 /23 weeks moving average

Bet: towards LW or –

R =MM (118.54);      S = LW (115.72)

 

Short term: recovery

On a daily basis, daily M23 is up for some days. Below PD; LD is our next objective.

Idea: recovery as long as PD = support

Bet: UD will be our main resistance.

 

R = UD (118.71);       S = PD (117.53), LD (116.83)

 

Conclusion: not bullish.

 

Editorial : notre analyse €uro / dollar

Laisser une réponse

Vous ne comprenez pas notre analyse, ceci signifie que vous ne pratiquez pas l’ATDMF. C’est dommage, car si vous pensiez trouver une analyse technique et que vous cherchiez des informations sur le passé pour anticiper l’avenir, vous avez tout faux. Dans ce cas, il vous est possible de passer sur un autre site afin de pouvoir reproduire ce schéma obsolète  de raisonnement, cher à nos prétendus analystes techniques et économistes (Cf Wikipédia les pages sur l’analyse technique et l’ATDMF. L’une a été écrite il y a 30 ans et l’autre il y a quelques semaines. A croire que les développements des moyens de communications n’ont pas bougé depuis 30 ans !!!). Cependant, n’oubliez pas que faire des prévisions c’est anticiper le futur. Pour y arriver, dans un environnement en perpétuel mouvement, l’utilisation de l’expérience scientifique (les mêmes causes, produisent les mêmes effets) n’est pas applicable.  Si pour vous, l’utilisation des moyennes mobiles, de l’indicateur RSI ou des vagues d’Elliott n’est pas rédhibitoire dans votre approche de l’analyse technique, sortez de ce site nos analyses ne peuvent pas vous être utiles.

La présence probable de nombreuses informations exceptionnelles dans un proche avenir, va permettre rapidement d’avoir une visibilité dégagée sur l’évolution de la parité € / $ pour les prochains trimestres.

Si notre approche vous convient, suivez nos formations personnalisées,  faites comme de nombreux opérateurs. Dans un premier stage apprenez à opérer sur  du moyen et long terme. Dans un second temps apprenez à opérer sur du court terme et de l’intraday. A ce moment seulement vous pourrez utiliser avec profit les outils dangereux (n’en déplaise aux courtiers) tel que les CFD.

Renseignements sur les formations :

Et atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr pour convenir de dates qui vous conviennent.

€ / $ : weak until the end of 2010?

Laisser une réponse

 Long term: towards LM could be likely after Q1 close

On a yearly basis, Bollinger band spread is not minimal, LY could decline and UY is rising. Our 7 / 23 moving averages are up and our stochastic could be overbought next period.

On a quarterly basis, the status for our stochastic and MACD is a weak bearish no-crossover. As long as MQ proves to be a support, a technical decline is in progress.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is maximal. A bearish B type crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The status for our stochastic and MACD is overbought. Below MQ (at the close), LM is our next target.

Idea: as long as MM proves to be a resistance, MQ is our next objective.

Bet: MY will act as a support

R = MM (1.3995), UY (1.5111);    S= MQ (1.3764), LM (1.2434)

 

Medium term: next pattern will be a bearish parallel one

On a weekly basis; Bollinger bands spread was thin when a close below LW occurred. With the monthly trend, UW will be up for 3 periods. A bearish parallel qualification is in hand. 

Idea: next period, a new bearish parallel pattern will develop.

Bet: bearish no-crossover for our stochastic.

R = MD (1.4031);     S = MQ (1.3764)

 

Short term: bearish parallel pattern

On a daily basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress. If PD acts as a resistance today and if 1.3648 fails as a support, more weakness is ahead.

Idea: use bearish parallel rules

Bet: today, PD will act as a resistance.

R = PD (1.38.9), MD (1.4031);   S = –

 

Conclusion: with a weekly bearish parallel pattern, LM could be a target this year.

 

Crude oil: not bullish

Laisser une réponse

 

Yearly trend: UQ = strong resistance

On a yearly basis, LY is flat. The status for our MACD is a bullish non-crossover (but our MACD is less strong). Our 7 / 23 years moving averages are always on a bull trend.

Idea: higher, but…

Bet: follow dynamic for Bollinger Bands spread.

 

Long term: technical recovery could be over soon

On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is maximal but shrinking slowly. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bearish B type crossover could develop. Stochastic and MACD are not oversold. Next quarter, the status for our stochastic and MACD could be a bearish no-crossover. The technical recovery in progress could stop at any time. UQ is too far away, to be a target.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is maximal but is shrinking. With our 7 / 23 months moving averages, a bearish no-crossover is not ruled out within 3 periods. As long as our stochastic is not overbought, the rise in progress could continue.

Idea: if our MACD is overbought before our stochastic, LM will be a target

Bet: towards LM with a bearish no-crossover as a status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages.

R= 83.95 (current high),    S= MM (71.40, end of period), LW (68.94)

 

Medium term: without trend

On a weekly basis, the level of volatility is not far away from its minimal level. For our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages, the trend is flat. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. MW will act as a resistance.

Idea: LW should be a support

Bet: bearish pre-parallel pattern.

R = MW (75.90);     S = LW (68.94)

  

Short term: weak

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is not minimal. A bearish A type crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages. With our weekly trend, no bearish pattern could develop. As long as our MACD is not oversold, the decline in progress could continue.

Idea: MD will be a strong resistance

Bet: nothing to do

R = MD (78.06);          S = LW (68.21)

 

 

Conclusion: end of multi-months recovery if MW acts as a resistance.

 

CAC 40: medium term basis: not yet bearish

Laisser une réponse

Long term basis: technical recovery in progress (finished before April?)

On a yearly basis, the status for our stochastic is overbought. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages are up but have a look on  – 8, – 7 , -6  prices).

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands are flat but LQ / UQ spread could / will increase with lower prices. The bearish trend for our 7 quarters moving average will continue for the next period.  The bearish B type crossover could be modified into a bearish A type A bearish crossover. At the end of the period, a bearish no-crossover could be the status for our MACD (same for our stochastic). With this hypothesis, a significant collapse will be in hand.

On a monthly basis; with our 7 / 23 months moving averages, a bearish no-crossover is not ruled out. With this hypothesis, a bearish no-crossover will be the status for our quarterly MACD. A collapse will be a week word for the move ahead.

Idea: Below MM, LQ could be a short term objective.

Bet: bearish no-crossover as a status for our quarterly MACD

R = UW (3998);    S = MM (3516), LQ (2766), LM (2607)

 

Medium term: not yet bearish

On a weekly basis, Bollinger Bands spread is minimal. A bearish A type crossover could develop with our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. With the monthly trend no bear pattern could develop.

Idea: LW as a support if UW is flat. Otherwise, decline as long as our stochastic is not oversold.

Bet: if MW acts as a resistance, a bearish pre-parallel pattern could develop.

 

R = MW (3808), MD (3880)               S= LW (3618), 3600, MM (3519.) 

 

  

Short term: decline without a bearish pattern

On a daily basis, our moving averages, stochastic and MACD are bearish. The status for our MACD is a bearish no-crossover. With the weekly trend, no bearish pattern could develop. With an oversold status for our MACD, a technical recovery is expected.

 

Idea: MD will act as a resistance

Bet: a technical recovery could develop.

R = MD (3880);     S= LW (3618)

 

Conclusion: with a bearish no-crossover as a status for our 7 / 2 3 months moving averages, a multi-months collapse will be in hand.

 

€-Bund is weak

Laisser une réponse

Long term: flat

On a quarterly basis, LQ is flat. Our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages are up. Our stochastic and MACD will continue to rise. UQ could be a target.

On a monthly basis, UM / LM spread is wide. As long as M23 trend is up, PM is our main support.

Idea: without trend

Bet:  PM will act as a support

R= UQ (126.06);   S= PM (119.27)

           

Medium term: UW / LW spread is minimal

On a weekly basis (continuous contract), our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages are without trend.  LW is flat. UW acted as a resistance.

Idea: without trend

Bet: MW is our main support

R = UW (123.8);   S = MW (122.22)

 

Short term: decline

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is maximal. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. Below MD, LD is our next objective.

 Idea: bearish acceleration if MD fails as a support

Bet: towards MW or LD.

R =UD (124.07);   S = MD (122.7), MW (122.22), LD (121.33)

Conclusion: daily trading if MD fails as a support

 

USD / CHF = toppish (this week)

Laisser une réponse

Long term: lower

 On a yearly basis, UY / LY spread is increasing slowly. A bearish non-crossover is in progress for some periods with our 7 / 23 years moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought.

 On a quarterly basis, Bollinger Bands spread is increasing. A bearish no-crossover could develop with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages.

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide. The status for our stochastic and MACD could be oversold or a bearish no-crossover.

Idea: MM is a strong resistance.

Bet: bearish no-crossover for our monthly stochastic and MACD

R = MM (1.0901);     S = LM (0.9861)

 

Medium term: without trend

On a weekly basis, Bollinger Bands spread was minimal last week and is increasing now. The trend for our monthly basis is not bullish. The pattern for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is a bullish B type crossover. The bullish no-crossover with our stochastic and MACD could be over before the end of February.

Idea: technical recovery in progress

Bet: end of the recovery if last week high (1.0643) acts as a resistance this week.

R = 1.0643, MM (1.0901);    S = MW (1.0278)

 

Short term: rise

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is wide. The status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is a bullish A type crossover. The status for our stochastic and MACD could be overbought. As long as out MACD is not overbought, the rise in progress could continue.

Idea: nothing to do.

R = 1.0643;     S= PD (1.0435), MD (1.0364)

 

Conclusion: recovery as long as MD = support.

 

 

Crude oil: weak

Laisser une réponse

Yearly trend: UQ = strong resistance

On a yearly basis, UY is flattening. The status for our MACD is a bullish non-crossover ( but our MACD is less strong). Our 7 / 23 years moving averages are always on a bull trend.

Idea: higher, but…

Bet: follow dynamic for Bollinger Bands spread.

 

Long term: technical recovery

On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is maximal but shrinking slowly. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bearish B type crossover could develop. Stochastic and MACD are not oversold. Next quarter, the status for our stochastic and MACD could be a bearish no-crossover. The technical recovery in progress could stop at any time. UQ is too far away, to be a target.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is maximal but is shrinking. With our 7 / 23 months moving averages, a bearish no-crossover is not ruled out within 3 periods. As long as our stochastic is not overbought, the rise in progress could continue.

Idea: a new close below MM will be a bearish pre-signal

Bet: towards LM with a bearish no-crossover as a status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages.

R= 83.95 (current high),    S= MM (71.40, end of period), LW (68.21)

 

Medium term: without trend

On a weekly basis, the level of volatility is not far away from its minimal level. For our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages, the trend is flat. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. MW will act as a resistance.

Idea: LW should be a support

Bet: bearish pre-parallel pattern.

R = MW (75.75), UW (83.30);     S = LW (68.21)

  

Short term: weak

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is increasing. A bearish A type crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages. With our weekly trend, no bearish pattern could develop. As long as MD proves to be a resistance, a bearish pre-parallel pattern could develop.

Idea: end of multi-months recovery if MD acts as a resistance.

Bet: MD will be a strong resistance.

R = MD (78.06);          S = LW (68.21)

 

 

Conclusion: not higher than MD.