Bonjour à toutes, bonjour à tous,
Le Forum ouvre demain, rendez-vous sur Forum pour avoir tous les détails.
Bonne fin de WE.
Philippe
Le forum
Laisser une réponse
Archives mensuelles : novembre 2008
Préparer 2009
Au vu de la volatilité sur les indices boursiers, le mois de décembre ne sera pas propice au trading. Les prochaines semaines seront consacrées à la préparation de l’année 2009. L’année 2009 devrait être plus volatile que l’année 2008. La tendance qui sera prise dans les premiers jours de janvier risque d’être décisive pour le reste de l’année. L’inimaginable risque de devenir une réalité. La hausse de la volatilité pourrait explorer de nouveaux territoires. Il va falloir faire table rase des repères actuels. Cette situation est prévue dans les principes de l’ATDMF.
Si vous souhaitez participer à des mouvements vertigineux qui résulteront de cette situation exceptionnelle, inscrivez-vous à notre prochaine formation des 6 et 7,8 décembre et profitez (pour les particuliers) de réductions accordées (renseignements dans la rubrique formations).
Nasdaq 100 : volatilité en baisse…
Long term: bearish non-crossover for our yearly stochastic and MACD
On a yearly basis, a bearish non-crossover will be the status for our stochastic and MACD at the end of Q4. Below 1000, 795 (current low) is a weak next target.
On a quarterly basis, the stochastic and our MACD are overbought. The next pattern for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages will be a bearish A type crossover. Bollinger Bands spread is near its minimal level and have a nice dynamic. If UQ is up at the end of Q4, a bearish T1 will be in hand. MQ (1659) is our main resistance. If 1000 fails as a support, 795 is our next target and 500 will be the next one.
On a monthly basis, a bearish non-crossover is in progress with our stochastic, MACD and for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. Bollinger band spread is not at its minimal level but the dynamic for each Bollinger band is very strong. As long as M7 is declining, UD (1393) is our main resistance and 795 is our first support.
Idea: towards 795 or -.
Medium term: bearish parallels pattern
On a weekly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress. For our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages, a bearish non-crossover is in progress and the bearish dynamic will continue to improve over the next periods. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover. MD (1213) is our first resistance and UD (1393) is the next one. 795 is an objective if 1000 fails as a support. Next target is 500.
Idea: use bearish parallel rules.
Short term: recovery
On a daily basis, our bearish parallel pattern failed with a decrease for the dynamic of UD / LD. Above MD (1213), UD (1393) is our next objective. Otherwise LD (1034) will be a target.
Idea: with a bearish pattern in early December, 795 could be a target for New Year.
Conclusion: 2009 will be a key year for US markets.
Baisses de taux à l’ordre du jour
Les cours sur les contrats de taux vont continuer de progresser. Sur le contrat du 10 Y T-Note le plus haut historique va être dépassé. De nouvelles baisses de taux sont donc attendues.
10 Y T-Note: nouveau + haut historique
Long term: bullish
On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are up. The status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bullish non-crossover. Our stochastic and MACD will be oversold at the end of the year. 123.59 (historical high) is our first resistance.
On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is minimal but is increasing. A bullish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD. 123.59 is our next objective. MW (115.59) is a strong support.
On a monthly basis, PM failed as a resistance. A bullish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. Pattern with our Bollinger bands is a bullish parallel one.
Idea: FED will act again in 2008 and 2009.
Medium term: nice bullish T2
On a weekly basis, a nice bullish T2 is in progress.
Idea: ATDMF pattern is in progress (don’t forget stop-loss)
Short term: bullish parallel pattern
On a daily basis, a bullish crossover PD / MD + dynamic for LD occurred. A bullish parallel pattern is in progress.
Idea: use bullish parallel rules.
Conclusion: above the Historical high.
Trading en fin d’année…
Les opérations d’habillage de portefeuilles prennent le dessus sur toutes autres considérations. Jusqu’à la fin de l’année (12/12) les opérations de trading deviennent aléatoires. Ce qu’il est important d’analyser ce sont les niveaux à partir desquels de nouvelles tendances pour 2009 seront probables.
USD / JPY: lower
Long term: 89.99 is our first objective
On a yearly basis, stochastic will be overbought in Q1 2009. The status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bearish non-crossover. MW (103.7) is a strong resistance and 89.99 is our first support and Historical low (79.7) is the next one.
On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. UQ / LQ spread is increasing. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bearish A type crossover is in progress. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought (bearish non-crossover for our stochastic and our MACD). 89.99 is our first objective.
On a monthly basis, our stochastic and MACD are overbought (+ MACD overbought before our stochastic). A bearish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. As long as M23 is bearish, the main trend is bearish. PW (102.71) is our main resistance.
Idea: bearish trend for 2009.
Medium term: bearish parallel pattern
On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread was expending when a bearish crossover between MW and PW occurred. With our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages, a bearish A type crossover is in progress. Our MACD is not oversold and a bearish non-crossover in progress with our stochastic. A bearish parallel pattern is in progress.
Idea: use bearish parallel rules.
Short term: flat
On a daily basis, the status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages and stochastic is a bearish non-crossover. As long as MD (97.08) acts as a resistance, a bearish pre-parallel pattern could develop.
Idea: Bollinger bands spread increase.
Conclusion: LD (94.41) is our first support.
Reprise technique de l’once d’or.
La reprise observée sur l’or depuis quelques jours n’est pas un mouvement haussier mais une simple reprise technique. Le changement de gouvernement aux USA n’est pas suffisant pour inverser les tendances observées depuis quelques semaines. Les marchés respirent. C’est un risque de mieux s’étouffer par la suite.
Yearly trend: bullish for more than 2 years.
On a yearly basis, a bullish parallels pattern is in progress. The dynamic for each band is very strong. PY will cross MY in more than two years. Gold will shine for a long time.
Idea: bullish non-crossover for our stochastic.
Long term: towards PW (911)?
On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is and will stay strong. PQ failed as a support. Since the end of September, a weak bearish divergence with our stochastic is in progress. MQ (611) could be our main target with an overbought status for our MACD. On a monthly basis, a bullish parallel pattern began in October 2005. MM failed as a support. With a next close below MM, LM (603) is our main support.
Idea: with a November close above MM (817), monthly trend is neutral.
Medium term: bearish without pattern
On a weekly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is a bearish non-crossover. Bollinger bands spread is wide. Above MW (828), PW (911) is our next objective. LW (699) is a strong support.
Idea: recovery with a weekly close above MW (828)
Short term: rise but not bullish
On a daily basis, the spread UD / LD is minimal and LD is flat. Weekly trend is not bullish. The rise in progress is only a technical recovery.
Idea: rise, as long as our MACD is not overbought.
Conclusion: a new rise could develop next year.
Commentaires
Sont disponibles pour les articles d’aujourd’hui.
A bientôt.
Philippe cahen