Long term basis: not yet bullish

On a yearly basis, TAM tools are not up.

On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is shrinking. A bullish no-crossover is the status for our stochastic but MQ trend is bearish.

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is a reference one. A NEI is in progress on the upper time frame.

Idea: monthly MACD is our leading indicator

Bet: UQ as a first resistance.

R= UQ (12332);    S= MQ (9904)

Medium term: bullish

On a weekly basis, T12 was in progress with a bearish trend for LW.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: towards UQ is expected.

R= UQ (12332);               S= PW (11016).

Short term: bullish without pattern

On a daily basis, no PEI is in progress with TAM tools..

Idea: use our MACD as a leading indicator

Bet: towards UQ.

R= UQ (12332);     S= MD (11466).

Conclusion: bullish on a medium term basis.

Long term basis: not yet bullish

On a yearly basis, TAM tools are not up.

On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is shrinking. A bullish no-crossover is the status for our stochastic but MQ trend is bearish.

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is a reference one. A NEI is in progress on the upper time frame.

Idea: monthly MACD is our leading indicator

Bet: UQ as a first resistance.

R= UQ (12265);    S= M (9883)

Medium term: bullish

On a weekly basis, T12 was in progress with a bearish trend for LW.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: towards UQ is expected.

R= UQ (12265);               S= PW (10489).

Short term: bullish

On a daily basis, a type III is in progress.

Idea: use our bullish parallel rules

Bet: higher.

R= UQ (12265);     S= MD (11016).

Conclusion: towards UQ or above.

Long term: technical recovery

On a yearly basis, our 7 / 23 moving averages have a down trend. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. LY is our first support.

 On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is wide but extend. For our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bearish A type crossover is in progress. Our stochastic and MACD are not oversold (a bearish no-crossover could develop). LQ is our main target.

On a monthly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages is a bearish no-crossover.  Our stochastic and MACD are not yet overbought. . With a close below MM, LM could be a target.

Idea: end of the multi-months recovery with a close below MM.

Bet: buy long term put.

R = UM (13461);     S = MM (9834), PM (8328), LM (6894)

 

Medium term: UW / LW spread is minimal

On a weekly basis, UW and LW are flat. With our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages, a bearish A type crossover will develop. LW is our next objective.

Idea: not yet bearish

Bet: bearish after year’s end.

R = MW (10131);   S = LW (9315)

 

Short term: bearish without pattern

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread was minimal and expending when a close occurred below LD. With the weekly status, the bear trend is only a technical decline.

Idea: same trend as long as our MACD is not oversold

Bet: MD will act as a resistance.

R = PD (10386);   S = LW (9315)

 

Conclusion: weak and bearish after the end of Q1.

Position:   Previous: nothing, in progress: nothing, next: nothing

 

Long term: technical recovery

On a yearly basis, our 23 years moving average trend is down. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. LY is our first support.

 On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is wide but extend. For our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bearish A type crossover is in progress. Our stochastic is not oversold.

On a monthly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is over with a previous close above MM.  The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bullish no-crossover. UM / MQ could be a target.

Idea: end of recovery with a monthly close below MM.

Bet: UM will be the highest level in 2010.

R = UM (13474);     S = MM (10037), PM (8125)

 

Medium term: recovery

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is minimal and increase. With our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages, a bullish A type crossover is in progress. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold. With the monthly trend, no bullish pattern could develop. MW is our main support. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise in progress will continue.

Idea: bullish pre-parallel pattern

Bet: UM will be the highest level in 2010.

R = UM (13474);   S = MW (10125)

 

Short term: rise

On a daily basis, a bullish pre-parallel pattern could develop if PD acts as a support today. Otherwise, MD will be our first target.

Idea: With a bullish pre-parallel pattern, UM will be a target.

Bet: PD = support until Tuesday close.

R = UM (13474);   S = PD (10723), MD (10502)

 

Conclusion: see short term analysis.

 

Long term: towards LY (6342)

On a yearly basis, LY (6342) is our first support.

 On a quarterly basis, the status for our stochastic and MACD is overbought. The spread UQ / LQ is wide but extend. For our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bearish A type crossover is in progress. LY (6342) is our first target.

On a monthly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: below LY (6342) is not ruled out.

R = UW (9276), 9326;     S = 6994, LY (6342)

 

Medium term: recovery above UW (9276)

On a weekly basis, a bullish non-crossover is in progress with our MACD. Above UW (9276); as long as our MACD is not overbought, the technical recovery will continue.

Idea: only technical recovery as long as PM (10569) acts as a resistance.

R = UW (9276), 9326, PM (10569);   S = MW (8223), LW (7169)

 

Short term: flat

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is minimal. A bearish A type crossover could develop with our 7 / 23 days moving averages. A bearish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD. LD (8307) is our main target if PD (8612) fails as a support.

Idea: bullish intraday trading

R = UD (9147);   S = PD (8612), LD (8307), MW (8223)

 

Conclusion: very bearish if UW (9276) acts as a resistance.

 

Long term: towards LY (4865)

On a yearly basis, our MACD was overbought before our stochastic. LY (4865) is our first support. Collapse could continue for 2 to 7 (?) next periods.

 On a quarterly basis, the status for our stochastic and MACD is overbought. The spread UQ / LQ is wide but extend. For our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bearish A type crossover will develop. LY (4865) is our first target.

On a monthly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

 

Idea: no recovery before 2011. Below LY (4865) is not ruled out.

 

Long term: towards LY (4918)

On a yearly basis, LY (4918) is our main support.

 On a quarterly basis, the status for our stochastic and MACD is overbought. The spread UQ / LQ is wide but extend. For our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bearish A type crossover is expected. LY (4918) is our first target.

On a monthly basis, a strong bear trend is in progress.

Idea: stay short.

 

Medium term: bearish parallels pattern

On a weekly basis, a bearish parallels pattern is in progress (bearish crossover PW / MW + divergence for Bollinger bands).

Idea: use bearish parallels rules.

 

Short term: towards LD (7501)

On a daily basis, the status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages will be a bullish B type crossover. Stochastic and MACD will be overbought. Bollinger bands spread is not minimal. A bearish pre-parallel pattern could develop if LD (7501) acts as a support and MD act as a resistance.

Idea: LD will act as a support.

 

Conclusion: towards LY (4918).

 

 

 

Editorial,

La tendance baissière observée en juillet sur l’indice Nikkeï se confirme. Cette semaine, un nouveau signal de baisse puissant est observé sur le graphique hebdomadaire. C’est actuellement sur ce marché, que les opérateurs à l’horizon de quelques semaines vont pouvoir prendre position avec un risque minimum.

La forte volatilité intraday observée sur le Dax et le CAC permet aux opérateurs qui utilisent l’ATDMF de réaliser, tous les jours, des plus values conséquentes avec un niveau de risque minimum.  

Indice Nikkeï

 

 

 

On a yearly basis, MY (17415) is our main resistance.

 On a quarterly basis, the status for our stochastic and MACD is overbought. The spread UQ / LQ is wide. Our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages are without trend but the dynamic for our 7 quarters moving average will stray bearish. LQ (9109) is our main target.

On a monthly basis, a soft bearish parallels pattern is in progress. LQ (9109) is our main objective.

Idea: stay short.

 

Medium term: bearish parallels pattern

On a weekly basis, a bearish parallels pattern is in progress (bearish crossover PW / MW + divergence for Bollinger bands).

Idea: New bear position this week.

 

Short term: lower

On a daily basis, the status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages and MACD is a bearish non-crossover. As long as our MACD is not oversold, the main trend is bearish.

Idea: Recovery above MD (12661).

 

Conclusion: bearish on a long term basis.  

 

 

Editorial,

 

Analyser différents marchés permet de repérer s’ils se comportent avec le même pattern. C’est le cas des indices sur une base quotidienne. Il se trouve que ce jour la tendance en cours va soit s’amplifier (non-croisement possible sur notre MACD) soit s’inverser. L’indice Nikkeï donne la réponse avant l’ouverture des marchés européens : le non-croisement sur le MACD devrait se produire. L’ATDMF 2007 va donc privilégier la poursuite des scénarios baissiers à court terme ce qui permettra de casser les supports de fin de Q1 et ainsi de pouvoir se préparer à une baisse de l’ordre de 30%. Ce type de raisonnement est basé sur l’application de la théorie des systèmes que j’utilise depuis 1978 sur les marchés financiers (travaux universitaires publiés en 1982).

 

Indice Nikkeï

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

L’article suivant est traduisible à l’aide de Yahoo Babelfish.

 

 

Long term: lower after Japanese year’s end

 

On a yearly basis, MY (17430) is our main resistance.

 On a quarterly basis, the bullish pattern is over. The status for our stochastic and MACD is overbought. If MQ (13562) fails as a support (end of Q1), 10 000 could be a target.

On a monthly basis, a bearish divergence is the status for our stochastic and MACD. The spread UM / LM is important and the Bollinger bands spread increase. MW (14477) is our main resistance.  As long as our MACD is not oversold, the decline will continue.

Idea: Q1 close will be below MQ (13562) => 10 000 is likely.

 

Medium term: bearish pre-parallels pattern

On a weekly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is a bearish non-crossover (same for our MACD). As long as MW (14477) proves to be a resistance, the decline will amplify.

Idea: bearish as long as our 7 weeks moving average is down.

 

Short term: bearish

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is increasing. The status for our indicators is a bearish non-crossover. With a bearish crossover PD / MD + an increase for Bollinger bands spread, a bearish parallels pattern will develop.

Idea: ready to plummet soon.

 

 Conclusion: buy put on a long term basis.