Yearly trend: in 2012 /2013, qualification in a new bullish parallel pattern
On a yearly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress with a strong dynamic for LY. PY will cross MY next period. On a global Historical basis, one of the most bullish pattern ever seen (since the end of XIX century).
Idea: a type II should develop
Bet: S&P 500 rise in the 1986 / 2000 as a benchmark.
Long term: bullish parallel on a quarterly basis
On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. A type I could develop. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is strong and continue thru 2013. A PEI is in progress with our MACD. On a monthly basis, a type III is in progress.
Idea: focus on monthly MACD (no-crossover / overbought)
Bet: towards 5 000 or above as long as no NEI will develop on a monthly basis.
R = rise > 2 years, +++ (could be above 5 000); S = PM (1532.8), MM (1398.7)
Medium term: lower
On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is maximal. Stochastic and MACD are overbought. A bearish A type crossover will develop.
Idea: towards LW is expected
Bet: weak as long as our stochastic is not oversold.
R= UD (1687.5); S = PM (1532.8), LW (1441.7)
Short term: Bollinger spread is minimal
On a daily basis, a NEI on the weekly time frame is in progress. No strong move could develop.
Idea: trading range
Bet: nothing to do.
R = UD (1687.5) S = LD (1607.7)
Conclusion: wait for a minimal spread on weekly Bollinger bands (early next year).