Archives mensuelles : octobre 2011

S&P 500: add long position + stop-loss (MW)

 Charts : ask to atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

 

Long term basis: towards UY?

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread is maximal. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages could continue to rise.  Above PY, UY could be a target.

On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is maximal. UM is our first resistance. Above UM, UQ is our next target. A bullish no-crossover could develop with our stochastic and MACD.

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is a reference one. A bullish pattern could develop this winter.

Idea: focus on LM trend

Bet: PEI for our monthly moving averages.

 

R = UM (1390), UQ (1591), UY (1648);    S = MM (1208), LM (1027)

 

Medium term: higher

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is maximal. A bullish A type could develop. Stochastic and MACD are oversold. Our next strong resistance is UW.

Idea: bullish pre-parallel within three months

Bet: enter long position.

 

R = UW (1364);    S= MW (1227)

 

 

Short term: rise

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is above a reference one. A PEI is the status for MACD.

Idea: rise as long as MACD is not overbought.

Bet: higher.

 

R = UW (1364);                   S=MD (1194)

 

Conclusion:  add long positions + stop-loss at MW level.

€ / $ : bullish above MW (at the close)

 

 

   Charts : ask to atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

 

   Long term: flat with a bullish bias

On a yearly basis, Bollinger band spread is not minimal but is increasing. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages are slightly bullish. Stochastic and MACD are neutral. Above MW a bullish no-crossover should develop. UY is our first resistance and MY is our main support.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger spread is a reference one. TAM tools are neutral. LQ is a very strong support.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is above a reference one. TAM tools are on the down side. LM is a strong support.

Idea: above MW, PQ will be a target

Bet: bullish trend if MQ fails as a resistance.

R= MW (1.4056), PQ (1.494);    S= LQ (1.2498)

 

Medium term: lower but not bearish

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is above a reference one. No PEI is in progress with TAM tools. As long as MW proves to be a resistance, the main trend is lower.

Idea: nothing to do

Bet: towards UW if MW fails as a resistance.

R = MW (1.4056), UW (1.473);     S = LD (1.3383)

 

 

Short term: rise

On a daily basis, LD is flat. A bullish no-crossover is in progress with our stochastic.

Idea: rise as long as our stochastic is not overbought

Bet: towards MW.

 

R = MW (1.4056);   S = MD (1.3642)

 

Conclusion: new long position with a weekly close above MW.

Edito : il faut bouffer

C’est pour cela que notre analyse sur l’or ne sera proposée par aucun courtier. Nous le répétons depuis longtemps : l’analyse technique classique est devenue un outil de marketing. Ceci ne signifie pas que l’analyse technique ne serve à rien. Mais il est indispensable que tout opérateur puisse devenir indépendant pour se faire sa propre idée sur l’opportunité d’intervenir sur tel ou tel marché.

Pour y parvenir, une seule solution : la formation de base à l’ATDMF.

 Elle vous permettra au bout de 3 jours, de repartir opérationnel (sur l’ensemble des marchés) pour effectuer des opérations d’une durée supérieure à quelques jours.

Renseignements : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

Gold: flat

 

Yearly trend: in 2012 /2013, qualification in a new bullish parallel pattern

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress with a strong dynamic for LY. PY will cross MY next period. On a global Historical basis, one of the most bullish pattern ever seen (since the end of XIX century). 

Idea: a type II should develop

Bet: S&P 500 rise in the 1986 / 2000 as a benchmark.

 

Long term: bullish parallel on a quarterly basis

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. A type I could develop. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is strong and continue thru 2013. A PEI is in progress with our MACD. On a monthly basis, a type III is in progress.

Idea: focus on monthly MACD (no-crossover / overbought)

Bet: towards 5 000 or above as long as no NEI will develop on a monthly basis.

R = rise > 2 years, +++ (could be above 5 000);    S = PM (1532.8), MM (1398.7)

  

 Medium term: lower

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is maximal. Stochastic and MACD are overbought. A bearish A type crossover will develop.

Idea: towards LW is expected

Bet: weak as long as our stochastic is not oversold.

 R= UD (1687.5);   S = PM (1532.8), LW (1441.7)

 

Short term: Bollinger spread is minimal

On a daily basis, a NEI on the weekly time frame is in progress. No strong move could develop.

Idea: trading range

Bet: nothing to do.

 

R = UD (1687.5)               S = LD (1607.7)

 

Conclusion: wait for a minimal spread on weekly Bollinger bands (early next year).

Or : puissant signal la semaine prochaine (mise à jour)

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€ /$:technical recovery in progress

 

 (chart : ask to atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr)

 Long term: flat

On a yearly basis, Bollinger band spread is not minimal but is increasing. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages are slightly bullish. Stochastic and MACD are neutral. UY is a far away resistance and MY is our main support.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger spread is a reference one. TAM tools are neutral. LQ is a very strong support.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is above a reference one. TAM tools are on the down side. LM is a strong support.

Idea: decline as long as our monthly stochastic is not oversold

Bet: without main trend.

R= MQ (1.3966);    S= LQ (1.2493)  

 

Medium term: lower but not bearish

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is above a reference one. No PEI is in progress with TAM tools. As long as MW proves to be a resistance, the main trend is lower.

Idea: nothing to do

Bet: .

R = MQ (1.3966);     S = LD (1.3212)

 

 

Short term: flat

On a daily basis, LD is flat. A bullish no-crossover could be in progress with our stochastic.

Idea: rise as long as our stochastic is not overbought

Bet: towards MQ.

 

R = MQ (1.3966), MW (1.4083);   S = MD (1.3557)

 

Conclusion: a short term recovery is in progress.

 

Gold: weak

Long term: bullish parallel on a quarterly basis

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. A type I could develop. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is strong and continue thru 2013. A PEI is in progress with our MACD. On a monthly basis, a type III is in progress.

Idea: focus on monthly MACD (no-crossover / overbought)

Bet: towards 5 000 or above as long as no NEI will develop on a monthly basis.

R = rise > 2 years, +++ (could be above 5 000);    S = PM (1532.8), MM (1398.9)

  

Medium term: lower

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is maximal. Stochastic and MACD are overbought. A bearish A type crossover will develop.

Idea: towards LW is expected if MW fails as a support

Bet: weak as long as our stochastic is not oversold.

 R= UD (1749.1);   S = MW (1662.4), LW (1430.5)

 

Short term: toppish

On a daily basis; as long as our 23 days moving average trend is down, a rise is only a technical recovery.

Idea: a bearish no-crossover could develop with our moving averages

Bet: LD will be our first support with a bearish no-crossover.

 

R = UD (1749.1)               S = LD (1574.6)

 

Conclusion: focus on daily M7 / M23.