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Charts : ask to atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr
Long term basis: towards UY?
On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread is maximal. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages could continue to rise. Above PY, UY could be a target.
On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is maximal. UM is our first resistance. Above UM, UQ is our next target. A bullish no-crossover could develop with our stochastic and MACD.
On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is a reference one. A bullish pattern could develop this winter.
Idea: focus on LM trend
Bet: PEI for our monthly moving averages.
R = UM (1390), UQ (1591), UY (1648); S = MM (1208), LM (1027)
Medium term: higher
On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is maximal. A bullish A type could develop. Stochastic and MACD are oversold. Our next strong resistance is UW.
Idea: bullish pre-parallel within three months
Bet: enter long position.
R = UW (1364); S= MW (1227)
Short term: rise
On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is above a reference one. A PEI is the status for MACD.
Idea: rise as long as MACD is not overbought.
Bet: higher.
R = UW (1364); S=MD (1194)
Conclusion: add long positions + stop-loss at MW level.
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Long term: flat with a bullish bias
On a yearly basis, Bollinger band spread is not minimal but is increasing. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages are slightly bullish. Stochastic and MACD are neutral. Above MW a bullish no-crossover should develop. UY is our first resistance and MY is our main support.
On a quarterly basis, Bollinger spread is a reference one. TAM tools are neutral. LQ is a very strong support.
On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is above a reference one. TAM tools are on the down side. LM is a strong support.
Idea: above MW, PQ will be a target
Bet: bullish trend if MQ fails as a resistance.
R= MW (1.4056), PQ (1.494); S= LQ (1.2498)
Medium term: lower but not bearish
On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is above a reference one. No PEI is in progress with TAM tools. As long as MW proves to be a resistance, the main trend is lower.
Idea: nothing to do
Bet: towards UW if MW fails as a resistance.
R = MW (1.4056), UW (1.473); S = LD (1.3383)
Short term: rise
On a daily basis, LD is flat. A bullish no-crossover is in progress with our stochastic.
Idea: rise as long as our stochastic is not overbought
Bet: towards MW.
R = MW (1.4056); S = MD (1.3642)
Conclusion: new long position with a weekly close above MW.
C’est pour cela que notre analyse sur l’or ne sera proposée par aucun courtier. Nous le répétons depuis longtemps : l’analyse technique classique est devenue un outil de marketing. Ceci ne signifie pas que l’analyse technique ne serve à rien. Mais il est indispensable que tout opérateur puisse devenir indépendant pour se faire sa propre idée sur l’opportunité d’intervenir sur tel ou tel marché.
Pour y parvenir, une seule solution : la formation de base à l’ATDMF.
Elle vous permettra au bout de 3 jours, de repartir opérationnel (sur l’ensemble des marchés) pour effectuer des opérations d’une durée supérieure à quelques jours.
Renseignements : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr
Yearly trend: in 2012 /2013, qualification in a new bullish parallel pattern
On a yearly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress with a strong dynamic for LY. PY will cross MY next period. On a global Historical basis, one of the most bullish pattern ever seen (since the end of XIX century).
Idea: a type II should develop
Bet: S&P 500 rise in the 1986 / 2000 as a benchmark.
Long term: bullish parallel on a quarterly basis
On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. A type I could develop. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is strong and continue thru 2013. A PEI is in progress with our MACD. On a monthly basis, a type III is in progress.
Idea: focus on monthly MACD (no-crossover / overbought)
Bet: towards 5 000 or above as long as no NEI will develop on a monthly basis.
R = rise > 2 years, +++ (could be above 5 000); S = PM (1532.8), MM (1398.7)
Medium term: lower
On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is maximal. Stochastic and MACD are overbought. A bearish A type crossover will develop.
Idea: towards LW is expected
Bet: weak as long as our stochastic is not oversold.
R= UD (1687.5); S = PM (1532.8), LW (1441.7)
Short term: Bollinger spread is minimal
On a daily basis, a NEI on the weekly time frame is in progress. No strong move could develop.
Idea: trading range
Bet: nothing to do.
R = UD (1687.5) S = LD (1607.7)
Conclusion: wait for a minimal spread on weekly Bollinger bands (early next year).
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Long term: flat
On a yearly basis, Bollinger band spread is not minimal but is increasing. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages are slightly bullish. Stochastic and MACD are neutral. UY is a far away resistance and MY is our main support.
On a quarterly basis, Bollinger spread is a reference one. TAM tools are neutral. LQ is a very strong support.
On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is above a reference one. TAM tools are on the down side. LM is a strong support.
Idea: decline as long as our monthly stochastic is not oversold
Bet: without main trend.
R= MQ (1.3966); S= LQ (1.2493)
Medium term: lower but not bearish
On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is above a reference one. No PEI is in progress with TAM tools. As long as MW proves to be a resistance, the main trend is lower.
Idea: nothing to do
Bet: .
R = MQ (1.3966); S = LD (1.3212)
Short term: flat
On a daily basis, LD is flat. A bullish no-crossover could be in progress with our stochastic.
Idea: rise as long as our stochastic is not overbought
Bet: towards MQ.
R = MQ (1.3966), MW (1.4083); S = MD (1.3557)
Conclusion: a short term recovery is in progress.
Long term: bullish parallel on a quarterly basis
On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. A type I could develop. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is strong and continue thru 2013. A PEI is in progress with our MACD. On a monthly basis, a type III is in progress.
Idea: focus on monthly MACD (no-crossover / overbought)
Bet: towards 5 000 or above as long as no NEI will develop on a monthly basis.
R = rise > 2 years, +++ (could be above 5 000); S = PM (1532.8), MM (1398.9)
Medium term: lower
On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is maximal. Stochastic and MACD are overbought. A bearish A type crossover will develop.
Idea: towards LW is expected if MW fails as a support
Bet: weak as long as our stochastic is not oversold.
R= UD (1749.1); S = MW (1662.4), LW (1430.5)
Short term: toppish
On a daily basis; as long as our 23 days moving average trend is down, a rise is only a technical recovery.
Idea: a bearish no-crossover could develop with our moving averages
Bet: LD will be our first support with a bearish no-crossover.
R = UD (1749.1) S = LD (1574.6)
Conclusion: focus on daily M7 / M23.