Archives mensuelles : novembre 2010

10 Y T-Note: without trend (medium term)

On a yearly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bullish no-crossover. The same status is in progress for our stochastic and MACD. The rise in progress should extend for some periods. Current Historical high is only our first objective.

On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is wide but increasing. A bullish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD were oversold at the same time. Current Historical high is only our first objective.

On a monthly basis, the spread for Bollinger bands spread is wide and bands are diverging. Our stochastic and MACD are not yet overbought.

Idea: as long as our monthly stochastic is not overbought, no correction could develop                                

Bet: bullish no-crossover for our stochastic is not ruled out.

 R = 128.7, +++;    S = MM (119.91)

 

Medium term: bullish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages are up. A bullish parallel is in progress. The rise could amplify.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: towards LW if PW fails as a support.

R = UW (127.99);    S = MW (124.58), PW (123.9), LW (121.17)

 

  

Short term: without trend

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands are flat and the spread is thin. Our indicators are neutral. With our weekly moving averages trend LD will be a strong support.

Idea: neutral

Bet: nothing to do.

R = UD (127.67);    S = PW (125.55)

 

Conclusion: nothing to do until January 2011.

 

Edito : vive la guerre des monnaies !

A partir de ce soir les mouvements vont s’intensifier. L’Europe va pouvoir se montrer plus forte que jamais si on juge du comportement de sa devise vis à vis du dollar. En réalité il s’agit avant tout d’une volonté stratégique de repli du USD. Les discours récents des officiels sur la non dévaluation compétitive de certaines monnaies ressemble aux propos d’Arthur Chamberlain en 1938 sur d’autres événements.     .

Les hostilités vont débuter lundi prochain. Les opérateurs armés, de la toute nouvelle ATDMF 2011, vont montrer leur supériorité en conservant leurs positions longues sur l’or. Une progression des cours, tout a fait exceptionnelle va stupéfier les uns et les autres.

 

Vous souhaitez vous défendre et engranger des plus-values à l’aide  de l’ATDMF 2011. Formez –vous à cette arme révolutionnaire (en terme de puissance et de nouveautés conceptuelles) à partir de mi novembre.

 

Renseignements : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

 

PS : avec l’ATDMF 2011, toutes ressemblances entre les analystes classiques et les stratèges  de la ligne Maginot seront bien fondées.

 

                                                                   CAC 40              Or

30/10/09 – 29/10/2010                               + 6.26 %              + 30.04 % 

Mars 09 (min) – 29/10/2010                       + 55.5 %              + 53.9 %

juin 07 (max) – 29/10/2010                         – 38 %                  + 201 % 

10/2000 – 10/2010                                                       – 40.1 %                       + 514 %

€ / $: focus on LD trend

   Long term: towards UY / UM / UQ?

On a yearly basis, Bollinger band spread is not minimal and will stay at the same level for some periods. Our 7 / 23 years moving averages will stay slightly up. With an overbought status for our stochastic (early 2011), 1.164 (2005 low) is the first objective and LY is the next one. But, a bullish no-crossover is not ruled out with our stochastic. With this hypothesis, UY will be our main objective.

On a quarterly basis, the status for our stochastic and our MACD was a bearish no-crossover. For our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, the pattern in early 2011 could be a bullish no-crossover. UQ will be our first target.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is far away from its minimal level. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold. UM could be our next objective.

Idea: higher as long as MM = support (end of period)

Bet: next year, a trading range UM / LM is likely

R = UY / UM / UQ (above 1.5);    S= MM (1.3734)

 

Medium term: bullish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, a bullish parallel qualification is in progress.

Idea: bullish as long as the MACD status is a bullish no-crossover

Bet: bullish no-crossover for our stochastic

R = UW (1.4208), +     S = PW (1.3538)

  

 

Short term: bull trend?

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is minimal. With a close above UD, a bullish pattern could develop.

Idea: wait a bullish T2 to be long.

Bet: tonight, a bear trend will develop for LD.

R = UW (1.4208);   S = LD (1.3802)

 

Conclusion: on a medium term basis, rise as long as PW (1.3538) acts as a support.

 

Gold: higher and nothing else

Yearly trend: in 2012 /2013, qualification in a new bullish parallel pattern

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress with a strong dynamic for LY. PY will cross MY in more than one period. A powerful bullish no-crossover is in progress with our stochastic. On a Historical basis, one of the most bullish pattern ever seen (since the end of XIX century). 

Idea: LY will continue to decline for two periods or more

Bet: S&P 500 rise in the 1990 / 2000 as a benchmark.

 

Long term: a new monthly bullish pattern qualification

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is strong and continue thru 2013. The status in progress for our MACD and our stochastic is a bullish no-crossover. On a quarterly basis, these patterns give a very powerful signal.

On a monthly basis, our 7 / 23 months moving averages are up with a bullish no-crossover as a current status. The status for our monthly stochastic and MACD is a bullish no-crossover. A bullish parallel qualification is in progress.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules on a monthly basis

Bet: very bullish for 2011

R = rise > 2 years, +++ (should be above 2 000, 3 000 and +++);    S = MM (1115)

  

 

Medium term: bullish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is expending (for 8 periods with the current one). With LW the pattern in progress could be similar to the 17/05/2010 one. A bullish crossover PW / MW occurred. A bullish parallel qualification is in progress.

Idea: above Historical High this month

Bet: LW trend will continue to drop

 

R = +++        S = PW (1305.9)

 

Short term: rise

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is not far from its minimal spread. A bullish A type crossover will develop with our 7 / 23 days moving averages.  If UD fails as a resistance, our MACD will be the leading indicator.   

Idea: rise as long as MD proves to be a support

Bet: my dream is to see LD trend down.

 

R = UD (1375.9);          S = MD (1348), LD (1317)

 

Conclusion: same as usual, long in gold and nothing else.