Archives mensuelles : janvier 2013

Opérer sur les marchés avec un risque limité

C’est avant tout pour réaliser des plus-values avec un niveau de risque limité. Pour cela il convient  de se positionner sur le marché ayant le potentiel de décalage de cours le plus important. Cela permet également de limiter le risque. La hausse de l’€ contre diverses devises majeures est actuellement un bon exemple.

Si actuellement « on » vous recommande d’intervenir sur les marchés actions, il est certain que « on » pense à son intérêt financier en premier et se fiche éperdument que vous réalisiez ou non des plus-values (avec tout ce que cela implique). De plus, le niveau de risque sur n’importe quel marché action est largement supérieur à celui que vous prendriez en intervenant sur les devises. Si ce raisonnement ne vous est jamais venu à l’esprit, soit il faut clôturer vos comptes, soit vous pouvez m’envoyer un mail à

atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

en mentionnant votre N°  de téléphone et vos disponibilités afin que nous examinions votre cas.

Bien cordialement.

Philippe

S&P 500: above Historical High?

Long term basis: Above Historic High as long as monthly MACD is not overbought

On a yearly basis, PY failed as a resistance. Stochastic is oversold. Our moving averages could continue to rise. UY is our main target if 1576 (current high) fails as a resistance.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger Bands spread is maximal but could increase. A bullish no-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD. UQ (1554) is our first target.

On a monthly basis, a bullish no-crossover is the status for each TAM tool. M23 is not flat.

Idea: monthly MACD is our leading indicator

Bet: with a no-crossover status for our monthly stochastic and MACD in early February, 2013 will be a bullish year.

R = 1576, UY (1667), +++;    S = MM (1321)

Weekly basis: a bullish T2 is in progress

On a weekly basis, a bullish pattern is in progress.

Idea: use T2 / T4 rules

Bet: parallel.

R = 1576;    S= MW (1432)

Daily basis:  type I in progress

A bullish parallel is in progress.

Idea: use parallel rules

Bet: add a new long position.

R= 1576;                       S= MD (1460)

Conclusion: above Historical High is expected

US 10 Y T-Note: warning

Long term: higher

On a yearly basis: Bollinger Bands are expending and a PEI is in progress for each component of TAM tools. The up trend should continue for two periods or more.

On a quarterly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

On a monthly basis, a type I is in progress.

Idea: use monthly bullish parallel rules

Bet:  Historical new high is not ruled out.

R= PM (135.05), UM (136.73);    S= MM (130.93)

Medium term: weak

On a weekly basis, Bollinger Bands spread is minimal. TAM tools are down without any PEI / NEI.

Idea: use our stochastic as a leading indicator

Bet: lower as long as MW= resistance.

R= MW (132.84);   S= LD (131.55), MM (130.93)

Short term: higher

On a daily basis, a bullish no-crossover is in progress with our stochastic and MACD.

Idea:  use our stochastic as a leading indicator

Bet:  nothing to do.

R= UD (132.85);   S= MD (132.1)

Conclusion: on a medium term basis, weak as long as MW= resistance.

EUR / GBP: add long position?

Long term: weak

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread is above a reference one. Moving averages are up and stochastic is neutral.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands will be flat. Stochastic and MACD are not yet oversold. MQ is our main resistance.

On a monthly basis, stochastic and MACD are oversold and M23 will continue to decline.

Idea: as long as the trend for our monthly moving averages is against the MACD one, no main trend will emerge

Bet: nothing to do.

R= MQ (.8541), UQ (.9305);    S= MM (.833), LM (.77)

Medium term: rise

On a weekly basis, with a NEI on the monthly basis, no bull market could be in progress.

Idea: weekly MACD is our leading indicator

Bet: towards .8541.

R= MQ (.8541);     S = MW (.8105).

Short term: rise

A type II is in progress.

Idea: use parallel rules

Bet: add long position.

R = MQ (.8541);        S = MD (.8239).

Conclusion: long with a PEI as a status for our daily stochastic.

Intraday pour les particuliers

De nombreuses publicités vantent la possibilité pour les particuliers de faire de l’intraday comme les professionnels. C’est un mensonge car de nombreuses différences séparent un professionnel d’un particulier. Cependant, notre expérience permet d’adapter ce type d’opérations  aux particuliers.

Vous n’avez jamais osé prendre position sur une unité de temps 2 ou 5 minutes ? Cependant ceci permet de dénouer l’opération au bout de 15 minutes à 1 heure et, éventuellement, d’empocher une plus-value équivalente au déposit demandé par votre courtier pour cette opération.

Les règles de sécurité, spécifiques à l’intraday, permettent de réaliser une majorité d’opérations gagnantes. Celles qui sont perdantes se traduisent par des pertes minimes grâce à l’utilisation de stops particuliers. Ce que nous vous proposons c’est de pouvoir opérer lorsque vous disposez de disponibilité égale ou supérieure à 30 minutes.

Vous souhaitez avoir d’autres informations ? Laissez votre numéro de téléphone ainsi que les horaires auxquelles vous êtes disponible : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

WTI: higher

Long term: quiet

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallel is in progress.

On a quarterly basis, our MACD is the leading indicator.

On a monthly basis, UM / LM spread is above a reference one. TAM tools are neutral.

Idea: use our monthly stochastic as a leading indicator

Bet: UM is our main resistance.

R= UM (106.75);   S= MM (93.51)

Medium term: flat

On a weekly basis, Bollinger Bands spread is a reference one. TAM tools are neutral.

Idea: use our stochastic as a leading indicator

Bet UW is a strong resistance:

R= UW (97.43);     S = MW (90.38)

Short term: type III in progress

On a daily basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use parallel rules

Bet: higher.
R= UW (97.43); S= MD (93.02)

Conclusion: higher.

CAC 40: higher, but

Long term basis: not yet bullish

On a yearly basis, stochastic and MACD could continue to be overbought. As long as MY (end of period) proves to be a resistance, the main trend is not bullish.

On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is shrinking. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold. Our moving averages trend is down.

On a monthly basis; for M23, the trend is bearish. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold.

Idea: monthly stochastic is our leading indicator

Bet: UM as a first resistance.

R= UM (3861), 4145 (Jan 2011 high);    S= MM (3362)

Medium term: higher without bull trend.

On a weekly basis, a bullish no-crossover is the status for each TAM tool. A NEI is in progress with our monthly M23.

Idea: higher as long as our MACD is not overbought

Bet: towards UM is likely.

R= UM (3861);               S= MW (3532).

Short term: higher

On a daily basis, M23 is not flat. A weak bullish no-crossover is the status for our moving averages.

Idea: daily MACD is our leading indicator

Bet: nothing to do.

R= UM (3861);     S= MD (3694).

Conclusion: if you want to add a long position, buy S&P 500.

€ / $: higher?

Long term: above MM at the close?

On a yearly basis, TAM tools are without NEI / PEI.

On a quarterly basis, a bearish no-crossover is in progress for our moving averages. Our stochastic could be oversold. MQ is a strong resistance.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is above a reference one. Stochastic and MACD are oversold and M23 will continue to decline.

Idea: above MQ, PQ will be our main objective

Bet: with a close above MM, the rise in progress will continue for several months.

R= MM (1.3243), MQ (1.371), PQ (1.4374);    S= MW (1.2996).

Medium term: trading range

On a weekly basis, a bullish no-crossover is in progress with our moving averages and with our MACD.

Idea: MACD is our leading indicator

Bet: not bearish as long as MW= support.

R = 1.3404 (current high);     S = MW (1.2998).

Short term: recovery

On a daily basis, a bullish no-crossover could be the status for our stochastic and MACD. With this hypothesis, a bull trend will develop.

Idea: MACD is our leading indicator

Bet: towards LD if MD fails as a support.

R = UD (1.3372);        S = MACD overbought, MD (1.3199), LD (1.3026).

Conclusion: higher for several months with a monthly close above MM.