Archives pour la catégorie taux d’intérêt

€-Bund: a new Historical high is expected

Long term: higher

On a quarterly basis, a bullish type I is in progress.

On a monthly basis, our stochastic will be oversold.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules on a monthly basis

Bet: above PM, a new bull trend is expected.

R= PM (146.07), UM (147.45), +++;    S= MM (140.49)

Medium term: rise

On a weekly basis, TAM tools will rise for several periods.

Idea: use our MACD as a leading indicator

Bet: nothing to do.

R= UM (147.45), +++;   S= MW (143.55)

Short term (June contract): up

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is increasing. No PEI could develop on TAM tools.

Idea:  use our MACD as a leading indicator

Bet: nothing to do.

R= UD (146.20);   S= PD (144.2)

Conclusion: higher.

 

US 10 Y T-Note: warning

Long term: higher

On a yearly basis: Bollinger Bands are expending and a PEI is in progress for each component of TAM tools. The up trend should continue for two periods or more.

On a quarterly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

On a monthly basis, a type I is in progress.

Idea: use monthly bullish parallel rules

Bet:  Historical new high is not ruled out.

R= PM (135.05), UM (136.73);    S= MM (130.93)

Medium term: weak

On a weekly basis, Bollinger Bands spread is minimal. TAM tools are down without any PEI / NEI.

Idea: use our stochastic as a leading indicator

Bet: lower as long as MW= resistance.

R= MW (132.84);   S= LD (131.55), MM (130.93)

Short term: higher

On a daily basis, a bullish no-crossover is in progress with our stochastic and MACD.

Idea:  use our stochastic as a leading indicator

Bet:  nothing to do.

R= UD (132.85);   S= MD (132.1)

Conclusion: on a medium term basis, weak as long as MW= resistance.

Long Gilt: focus on 117.20

Long term: lower

On a quarterly basis, our stochastic and MACD are overbought.

On a monthly basis, if 117.20 (current low) fails as a support, LM could be a target.

Idea: use our stochastic as a leading indicator

Bet:  lower.

R= MM (120.16);    S= 117.20, LM (111.9)

Medium term: bearish

On a weekly basis, Bollinger Bands spread is expending but MW is not flat.

Idea: use our MACD as a leading indicator

Bet: below PW.

R= MW (119.5);   S= 117.20, PW (116.56)

Short term: bearish below 117.20

On a daily basis; with a bearish no-crossover as a status for our moving averages, a bear trend will develop.

Idea:  short below PW

Bet:  easy to see the main trend next Monday morning.

R= MD (118.62);   S= 117.20

Conclusion: wait tomorrow afternoon.

10 Y T. Note: lower without a bearish trend

Long term: higher

On a yearly basis: Bands are expending and a PEI is in progress for each component of TAM tools. The up trend should continue for two periods or more.

On a quarterly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

On a monthly basis, a type I is in progress.

Idea: use monthly bullish parallel rules

Bet:  Historical new high is not ruled out.

R= UM (138.15);    S= MM (129.1)

Medium term: lower

On a weekly basis, a close below LW is likely. UW is flat and our monthly moving averages are up.

Idea: use our MACD as a leading indicator

Bet: towards MM.

R= MW (133.47), UW (134.84);   S= MM (129.1)

Short term: T2?

On a daily basis, a T2could develop today if a type A is in progress with our moving averages. Bollinger bands spread is a “limit” reference one.

Idea:  with a T2, use it only for intraday trading

Bet:  sell-off below 131.7 (14/9 low).

R= MD (133.17);   S= 131.7.

Conclusion: bearish with a daily T4.

10 Y T-Note: new Historical high this summer

Long term: bullish

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread is increasing. The status for TAM tools is a PEI for each one. As long as no NEI will develop on a monthly basis, the rise in progress could extend for some periods.

On a quarterly basis, a bullish no-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. The pattern in progress is a parallel one.

On a monthly basis, a type I is in progress.

Idea: use monthly bullish parallel rules

Bet: end of the current financial world within two years.

R = UM (137.4),   + + + ;    S = PM (129.79)

Medium term (Sept. 2012contract): type I in progress

On a weekly basis a type I occurred.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: higher.

R = UW (136.21)   S = PW (132.8), MW (131.69)

Short term: bullish parallel pattern

On a daily basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: higher.

R = UD (135.11);    S = MD (134.03)

Conclusion: bullish for some months.

Euro-Bund: higher

Long term: higher

On a quarterly basis, a bullish type I could develop.

On a monthly basis, UM / LM spread is expending. A PEI is the status for stochastic and MACD.

Idea: a bullish monthly type II is not ruled out

Bet:  rise as long as our monthly MACD is not overbought.

R= UM (144.63), +++;    S= MW (138.85)

Medium term: higher

On a weekly basis, a close occurred above UW with a NEI between open and close. A bullish no-crossover is the status for our moving averages.

Idea: UW / LW spread will increase

Bet: towards UM without bullish signal.

R= UM (144.63);   S= MW (138.85)

Short term: higher

On a daily basis, a weak bullish type I occurred

Idea: higher

Bet: rise as long as our MACD is not overbought.

R= UD (141.94);   S= MD (140.06)

Conclusion: nothing to do.

10 Y T-Note contract: new historical high is not ruled out

Long term: bullish

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread is increasing. The status for TAM tools is a PEI for each one. As long as no NEI will develop on a monthly basis, the rise in progress could extend for some periods.

On a quarterly basis, a bullish no-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. The pattern in progress is a parallel one.

On a monthly basis, a type II could be the next status.

Idea: rise as long as MM = support

Bet: a PEI could be the next status for MACD.

R = 132.35 (Historical High),   + + + ;    S = MM (125.91)

Medium term (June 2012contract): wait

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is minimal. A PEI could be the next status for our moving averages.

Idea: MACD could be oversold

Bet:  with a bear trend for LW, a bullish T1 is likely.

R = UW (131.93)   S = MW (130.21)

Short term: a type II could develop

On a daily basis, tonight, a type II could be in hand.

Idea: with a type II, a new Historical high is expected

Bet: UD / LD spread will continue to increase.

R = UW (131.93);    S = MD (129.39)

Conclusion: nothing to do this week.

In April, new speech for Bernanke

Long term: bullish

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread is increasing. The status for TAM tools is a PEI for each one. As long as no NEI will develop on a monthly basis, the rise in progress could extend for some periods.

On a quarterly basis, a bullish no-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. The pattern in progress is a parallel one.

On a monthly basis, the spread for Bollinger bands is above a reference one. A new status could develop for TAM tools.

Idea: rise as long as MM = support

Bet: long term trend will be done next quarter with monthly TAM status.

R = 132.35 (Historical High),   + + + ;    S = MM (125.63)

Medium term (June 2012contract): out

On a weekly basis, a bearish no-crossover is the status for our MACD.

Idea: lower as long as our MACD is not oversold

Bet:  monthly TAM tools will be overbought.

R = MW (129.99)   S = LW (128)

Short term: decline

On a daily basis, a NEI will continue on the weekly time frame.

Idea: lower as long as our MACD is not oversold

Bet: lower until early April.

R = MD (130.76);    S = LW (127.96)

Conclusion: nothing to do this week.

10 Y T-Note: not yet bearish

Long term: bullish

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread is increasing. The status for TAM tools is a PEI for each one. As long as no NEI will develop on a monthly basis, the rise in progress could extend for some periods.

On a quarterly basis, a bullish no-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. The pattern in progress is a parallel one.

On a monthly basis, the spread for Bollinger bands is above a reference one. A new status could develop for TAM tools.

Idea: rise as long as MM = support

Bet: long term trend will be done next quarter with the new monthly TAM status.

R = 132.35 (Historical High),   + + + ;    S = MM (125.65)

Medium term (June 2012contract): out

On a weekly basis, a bearish no-crossover is the status for our MACD.

Idea: next month, a bearish pattern could develop

Bet:  new bear trend if Bollinger spread increase.

R = MW (129.99)   S = LW (127.96)

Short term: decline

On a daily basis, no PEI is in progress with TAM tools.

Idea: lower as long as our MACD is not oversold

Bet: a type I or II could develop.

R = MD (130.76);    S = LW (127.96)

Conclusion: nothing to do this week.