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Euro-Bund contract: quiet for some weeks

Long term: higher

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is increasing. Our moving averages are up. Stochastic and MACD are oversold. As long as the status for our MACD is not overbought, the bull trend in progress could continue.

On a monthly basis, TAM tools are up as PM. A PEI is in progress for our monthly stochastic.  As long as the status for our stochastic and MACD is not a bearish divergence, the bull trend in progress could continue.

Idea: higher

Bet:  rise as long as our monthly MACD is not overbought.

R=  +;    S= MW (137.01)

Medium term: rise without bullish trend

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is increasing. A bullish no-crossover is the status for our moving averages and our stochastic. A NEI is the status for our MACD.

Idea: towards LW if MW fails as a support

Bet: UW= resistance.

R = UW (140.39);   S = MW (137.01), LW (133.63)

Short term: trading range

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. TAM tools are without PEI.

Idea: forget this time frame for the week ahead

Bet:.

R = UD (140.28);   S = MD (138.95), LD (137.62)

Conclusion: nothing to do.

€-Bund contract: higher???

Long term: higher

On a quarterly basis, our moving averages are up. Stochastic and MACD are oversold. As long as the status for our stochastic is not overbought, the bull trend in progress could continue.

On a monthly basis, TAM tools are up as PM. A PEI is in progress for our monthly stochastic.  As long as the status for our stochastic and MACD is not a bearish divergence, the bull trend in progress could continue.

Idea: higher

Bet:  rise as long as our monthly MACD is not overbought.

R=  +;    S= MW (136.9)

Medium term: bullish T2

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is a reference one. UW / LW spread is increasing. A bullish no-crossover is the status for our moving averages.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: +++

R = +++;   S = MW (136.9)

Short term: higher

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal. A weak PEI is in progress with our moving averages.

Idea: higher.

Bet: PEI for our stochastic and MACD.

R = +;   S = MD (138.65)

Conclusion: higher and higher.

3 M ED march 2012: PEI type 2 within a week

Medium term (March 2012 contract): bearish
On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is expending. A PEI is in progress for
our moving averages and our MACD. A NEI is in progress with our 23 months moving average.
Idea: lower as long as our MACD is not oversold
Bet: towards MM.
R = MW (99.44);         S = MM
(99.029), LM (97.987)
Short term: a bearish PEI type 2 is expected
On a daily basis, a parallel is in progress. A PEI type 2 will develop
early next week.
Idea: use bearish parallel rules.
Bet: powerful bear trend.
R = MD (99.376);         S = MM
(99.029)
Conclusion: bear trend for this contract (yield up) + rise for 10
Y contract (yield down) => special warning for stocks markets.
Position:  Previous: short; in progress: hold on; next: add short
position with a daily PEI type 2
.

US: 3 M ED yield up + 10 Y yield down => stocks could dive

Medium term (March 2012 contract): decline

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is expending. A PEI is in progress for our moving averages and our MACD. A NEI is in progress with our 23 weeks moving average.

Idea: lower as long as our MACD is not oversold

Bet: towards MW.

 

R = MW (99.452);         S = MM (99.033)

 

Short term: better than a T1

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is expending.

Idea: today will be a T2 with an intra-day new low.

Bet: powerful bear trend.

 

R = MD (99.4);         S = MW (99.033)

 

Conclusion: bear trend for this contract (yield up) + rise for 10 Y contract (yield down) => special warning for stocks markets.

 

 

E-Bund contract: weak below 135

Long term: higher

On a quarterly basis, our moving averages are up. Stochastic and MACD are oversold. As long as no NEI will develop on a monthly basis, the bull trend in progress will continue.

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is increasing. TAM tools are up. As long as our MACD is not overbought, prices will continue to rise.

Idea: higher

Bet: 

R= 139.19 (Historical High), UW (140.77)    S= 135 (PW on DEC. 2011 contract)

           

Medium term: bullish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet:

R = PW (139.19);   S = 135

 

 

Short term: flat

On a daily basis, TAM tools are neutral.

Idea: PD / UD is our first resistance and LD is a strong support

Bet: nothing to do.

R = UD (138.98)   S = LD (135.44)

 

Conclusion: weak if 135 fail as a support.

 

Euribor dec. 2011 could move higher

Long term: higher

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is shrinking. A PEI is in progress with our moving averages. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise in progress will continue.

Idea: higher

Bet: 

R= + + +    S= PM (98.349)

 

Medium term: higher

On a weekly basis, the spread for Bollinger bands is expending. A PEI is in progress with our stochastic and a new one could develop with our MACD.

Idea: higher

Bet: 

R= UW (99.016)   S= MD (98.769)

 

Short term: flat

On a daily basis, the spread for Bollinger bands is a reference one. TAM tools are neutral.

Idea: bullish T1 if MD proves to be a support next week.

Bet: wait early Q4.

 R = UD (98.92);    S = MD (98.769), LD (98.618)

 

10 Y T-Note: higher

Long term: bullish

On a yearly basis, the status for TAM tools is a bullish no-crossover. The rise in progress could extend for some periods. Current Historical high is our first objective.

On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is wide. A bullish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. A PEI is not ruled out with our stochastic and MACD. UQ is our first objective.

On a monthly basis, the spread for Bollinger bands is above a reference one. TAM tools are neutral.

Idea: recovery as long as MM = support

Bet: none

 R = UM (126.88);    S = MM (120.84), PM (117.92)

 

Medium term (September contract): bullish

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is increasing. A PEI is in progress with our stochastic and MACD.

Idea: bullish as long as our MACD is not overbought

Bet: a type II is expected.

R = PM (123.72);    S = PW (118)

 

  

Short term: Bullish parallel

On a daily basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: higher.

R = PM (123.72);    S = MD (121.48)

 

Conclusion: higher on a medium term basis.

 

Bund contract: today, focus on stochastic status

Long term: toppish

On a quarterly basis, a bearish divergence is in progress with our stochastic and MACD. Below MQ, LQ could be a target.

On a monthly basis, Bollinger spread is flat. A bearish A type crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages.

Idea: LM is our first support. LQ is our next objective.

Bet: as long as MM proves to be a resistance, a decline is in progress.

R= MM (125.44) S= LM (118.69), LQ (108.68)

Medium term: lower

On a weekly basis (Continuous contract); as long as a bearish A type crossover is in progress with our moving averages, the main trend is down.

Idea: PW is a strong resistance

Bet: towards LW if PW acts as a resistance.

R = PW (123.12), UW (126.04); S = LW (120.2)

Short term (continuous contract): toppish

On a daily basis, a bullish A type crossover is in progress with our moving averages.

Idea: towards PW or higher with a bullish no-crossover for our stochastic

Bet: below MD if the status of our MACD is overbought.

R = UD (123.47) S = MD (121.57), LD (119.67)

Conclusion: today, focus on daily no-crossover / overbought status for stochastic.