Archives mensuelles : avril 2012

CAC 40: weak

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Long term basis: technical recovery

On a yearly basis, stochastic and MACD could continue to be overbought for two periods or more. As long as MY (end of period) proves to be a resistance, the main trend is not bullish.

On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is maximal but shrinking. TAM tools will stay weak for two periods or more.

On a monthly basis, with a NEI as a status for our moving averages, a bullish trend is impossible.

Idea: cannot be bullish

Bet: MM is a strong resistance.

R = MM (3585);    S = LM (2874)

Medium term: trading range

On a weekly basis, no PEI or NEI could develop with TAM tools.

Idea: weak as long as our stochastic is not oversold

Bet: towards LW as long as MW (e.o.p) acts as a resistance.

R = MW (3311), UW (3610);               S= LW (3011).

Short term: weak

On a daily basis, a weak bearish no-crossover is the status of our moving averages.

Idea:  MD will act as a resistance

Bet: bearish pre-parallel

R = MD (3494);     S= LD (3081).

Position: lower if MD (e.o.p) acts as a resistance.

€ / GBP: weak

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Long term: flat

On a yearly basis, no PEI or NEI is in progress.

On a quarterly basis, the bullish parallel is over. A
bearish no-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD.

On a monthly basis, UM / LM spread is above a
reference one. TAM tools are without PEI.

Idea: Lower as long as our monthly stochastic is not
oversold

Bet: this year, a monthly bearish pattern could
develop.

R= MM (.8589);  
.8068, MY (.7411)

 

Medium term: weak

On a weekly basis, a PEI is the status for our moving
averages.

Idea: Lower as long as our weekly MACD is not oversold

Bet: nothing to do.

R = MW (.8327);    
S = .8068

 

Short term: no bearish pattern

On a daily basis, prices will continue to decline.

Idea: lower as long as MD proves to be a resistance

Bet: towards LD.

R = PD (.82), MD (.8247);   S = LD (.8137)

 

Conclusion: lower on a medium term basis.

 

€ / GBP: weak on a medium / long term basis

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Long term: without trend

On a yearly basis, no PEI or NEI is in progress.

On a quarterly basis, the bullish parallel is over.

On a monthly basis, UM / LM spread is above a reference one.

Idea: Lower as long as our monthly stochastic is not oversold

Bet: this year, a monthly bearish pattern could develop.

R= MM (.8591);    S= LM (.8205), MY (.7413)

Medium term

On a weekly basis, a PEI is the status for our moving averages. No PEI is in progress on the monthly time frame.

Idea: Lower as long as our weekly stochastic is not oversold

Bet: nothing to do.

R = MW (.8347);     S = LW (.8211), MY (.7413)

Short term: no bearish pattern

On a daily basis, prices will continue to decline.

Idea: lower as long as MD proves to be a resistance

Bet: towards LD.

R = MD (.8294);   S = LD (.8195)

Conclusion: lower on a medium term basis.

 

Brent: flat / weak on a short term basis.

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Long term: rise but not bullish

On a monthly basis, a PEI is in progress with our moving averages.

Idea: towards UM or above

Bet: higher

R= UM (133.07);   S= MM (107.57)

Medium term: rise

On a weekly basis, with a close below MW, LW is our next target.

Idea: lower as long as our stochastic is not oversold

Bet: weak below MW.

R= UW (130.13);     S= MW (116.6), LW (103.07)

Short term: weak

On a daily basis, a bearish no-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD.

Idea: MD is a strong resistance

Bet: lower as long as our MACD is not oversold.

R= MD (123.13);    S= MW (116.6).

Conclusion: close long position below MW.

S&P 500: bullish on a long term basis

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Long term basis: towards UQ or above

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread is shrinking slowly. Stochastic could be oversold at the end of the period. Our moving averages will continue to rise. As long as PY proves to be a resistance, MY could be an objective. Above PY, UY is our main target.

On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is maximal but shrinking. A bullish no-crossover is in progress with our stochastic and our MACD. UQ is our next target.

On a monthly basis, a PEI is in progress with our moving averages.

Idea: higher for some quarters

Bet: towards UQ or above.

R = PY (1471), UQ (1566), UY (1652);    S = MM (1269)

Medium term: type I in progress

On a weekly basis, a bullish parallel is in progress.

Idea: use parallel rules

Bet: the bullish trend will continue.

R = PY (1471);    S= MW (1324)

Short term: decline

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is expending. NEI is the status for TAM tools.

Idea: lower as long as our MACD is not oversold

Bet: a bearish pre-parallel pattern could develop.

R = MD (1399);                       S=1357, MW (1324)

Conclusion:  bullish as long as MW = support.

10 Y T-Note contract: new historical high is not ruled out

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Long term: bullish

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread is increasing. The status for TAM tools is a PEI for each one. As long as no NEI will develop on a monthly basis, the rise in progress could extend for some periods.

On a quarterly basis, a bullish no-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. The pattern in progress is a parallel one.

On a monthly basis, a type II could be the next status.

Idea: rise as long as MM = support

Bet: a PEI could be the next status for MACD.

R = 132.35 (Historical High),   + + + ;    S = MM (125.91)

Medium term (June 2012contract): wait

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is minimal. A PEI could be the next status for our moving averages.

Idea: MACD could be oversold

Bet:  with a bear trend for LW, a bullish T1 is likely.

R = UW (131.93)   S = MW (130.21)

Short term: a type II could develop

On a daily basis, tonight, a type II could be in hand.

Idea: with a type II, a new Historical high is expected

Bet: UD / LD spread will continue to increase.

R = UW (131.93);    S = MD (129.39)

Conclusion: nothing to do this week.