Archives mensuelles : avril 2009

Baisse des cours du contrat du 10 Y T-Note.

Cette baisse signifie t’elle que se prépare des transferts de capitaux vers les marchés actions ? Dans ce cas une hausse substantielle des indices est à envisager durant la seconde partie de l’année.  Si ce mouvement sur le contrat se produit sans poursuite de la hausse des indices boursiers, ceci traduirait-t-il une poursuite et amplification de la crise économique ?

10Y T-Note contract: baisse durant le second semestre

Long term: technical correction

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are up. The status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bullish non-crossover. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold.  No increase for the spread UY / LY.

On a quarterly basis; the status for our stochastic and MACD is not yet overbought (end of a bullish non-crossover?).  On a monthly basis, a bullish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 moving averages. The pattern with our Bollinger bands is a bullish parallel one. But in May a bearish non-crossover will be the status for our stochastic. With this hypothesis, MM (116.76) will be our main objective.

Idea: bearish non-crossover as a status for our quarterly stochastic: MQ (112.2) could be a target.

R = UW (126.98);    S = MM (116.75), MQ (112.2)

 

Medium term: weak

On a weekly basis, a weak bullish non-crossover is the pattern in progress for our stochastic and MACD. Bollinger band spread is not minimal and UW is flat. PW (124.62) is a strong resistance.

Idea: a bearish pre-parallel pattern could develop if LW = support.

R = PW (124.62);      S = LW (120)

 

Short term: decline

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is shrinking and not far away from its minimal level. A bearish non-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 days moving averages, stochastic and MACD. MD (122.58) is our main resistance and LW (120) is our first support.

Idea: decline as long as MD (122.58) = resistance

R = MD (122.58);       S = LD (120)

 

Conclusion: decline until year’s end.

 

$ / y : plus bas

Long term:  MM (103.46) = strong resistance

On a yearly basis, a close occurred below LY and Bollinger bands are slowly down. A bearish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages. Our stochastic is overbought. A bullish non-crossover could develop with our MACD. The decline in progress could continue.

On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is increasing. A bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. Decline will continue for some periods. On a monthly basis, a bullish divergence is the status for our monthly stochastic. Our 7 / 23 months moving averages are not bullish for some month (bearish non-crossover in progress). As long as our 7 / 23 months moving averages are bearish, a rise is only a technical recovery.

Idea: LM (89.12) is our main objective.

R = MM (103.46);     S = LM (89.13)

 

Medium term: flat

 On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide. MW is flat. With a close below MW (94.26), LW (86.65) is our next objective.

Idea: bearish A type crossover for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages.

R = 100;           S = MW (94.26), LW (86.65)

 

Short term: decline

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal and expending. With the weekly trend, no bear pattern could be expected. As long as our MACD is not oversold, the decline in progress could continue.

Idea: below MW (94.26)

R = MD (98.9);   S = MW (94.26), -

.

Conclusion: LW (86.65) could be a target within some weeks.

 

Pétrole : forte baisse possible en mai

Yearly trend: more declines is not ruled out

On a yearly basis; last period, MY acted as a support but T1 and PY price failed as supports. Our stochastic is overbought and our 7 / 23 years moving averages are not bearish.

Idea: with the stochastic status, 2008 low could fail as a support.

 

Long term: towards LQ (24.95)

On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is maximal but shrinking slowly. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bearish B type crossover will develop. Stochastic and MACD are overbought. LQ (24.95) could be a target as long as MQ (69.07) proves to be a resistance.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is maximal and expending. With our 7 / 23 months moving averages, a bearish A type crossover is in progress. Our stochastic will be oversold in more than two periods.

Idea: a bearish non-crossover could develop with our stochastic.

 

Medium term (June 09 contract): new bearish T1 is expected

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is minimal. With our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages, next pattern will be a bearish A type crossover. If UW trend increase with a close below LW, a bearish T2 could develop.

Idea: With UW / LW spread a nice ATDMF pattern could develop.

R =UW (51.55);       S = PW (42.51), 41.37, Historical Low

 

Short term (June 09 contract): lower

On a daily basis, as long as MD (51.56) proves to be a resistance, the status for our MACD could be a bearish non-crossover.

Idea: short with a weekly bearish T1.

R = MD (51.56);   S = LD (48), PW (42.51), 41.37, Historical Low

 

Conclusion: a weekly bearish ATDMF pattern is not ruled out.

 

Nikkeï : Toppish

Long term: towards LY (6342)

On a yearly basis, LY (6342) is our first support.

 On a quarterly basis, the status for our stochastic and MACD is overbought. The spread UQ / LQ is wide but extend. For our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bearish A type crossover is in progress. LY (6342) is our first target.

On a monthly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: below LY (6342) is not ruled out.

R = UW (9276), 9326;     S = 6994, LY (6342)

 

Medium term: recovery above UW (9276)

On a weekly basis, a bullish non-crossover is in progress with our MACD. Above UW (9276); as long as our MACD is not overbought, the technical recovery will continue.

Idea: only technical recovery as long as PM (10569) acts as a resistance.

R = UW (9276), 9326, PM (10569);   S = MW (8223), LW (7169)

 

Short term: flat

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is minimal. A bearish A type crossover could develop with our 7 / 23 days moving averages. A bearish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD. LD (8307) is our main target if PD (8612) fails as a support.

Idea: bullish intraday trading

R = UD (9147);   S = PD (8612), LD (8307), MW (8223)

 

Conclusion: very bearish if UW (9276) acts as a resistance.

 

Edito 22/04 Les graphiques, base annuelle, sur le Forex

Aucun analyste technique ne regarde ni analyse ces graphiques (ni sur le Forex, ni sur les autres marchés). C’est une erreur majeure. Avec l’ATDMF nous vous présentons chaque semaine cette analyse (qui n’est que rarement modifiée). Cependant, lorsque ceci se produit, cela traduit une modification profonde de la tendance. Cette semaine, des informations nouvelles apparaissent….

Formation ATDMF du 25 au 27 avril (dernier jour facultatif). Renseignements : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

€ / $ : weaker (yearly / quarterly basis)

   Long term: towards MY (1.2043)

On a yearly basis, Bollinger band spread is not minimal and LY is flat. Within two periods our 7 / 23 moving averages will be neutral. MY (1.2043) is our first support.

On a quarterly basis, the trend for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is not bearish but a bearish A type crossover is not ruled out before year’s end. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. Prices closed below MQ. Below MY (1.2043), LQ (1.1243) could be a target.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is maximal but expending. A bearish A type crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The status for our stochastic and MACD is not yet oversold. LM (1.2285) is our main objective.

Idea: new bearish sentiment with LQ as a target.

R = MQ (1.3318), PW (1.3583);    S =LM (1.2285), MY (1.2043), LQ (1.1243)

 

Medium term: PW = resistance

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is maximal. PW acts as a resistance. A close below MW occurred. LW (1.2386) is our next objective.

Idea: decline with an overbought status for our stochastic (next Monday).

R = MW (1.3219), PW (1.3583);   S = LW (1.2386)

 

Short term: sell-off?lrt term: no trend965Y (1.4243amilliales) enance personnelle.tellis

On a daily basis, the spread UD / LD is not minimal. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover. A bearish A type crossover is the new status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages. If 1.2885 (current low) fails as a support, LW (1.2386) is our next target. Otherwise, a bearish pre-parallel pattern could develop.

Idea: decline as long as MD (1.3233) = resistance

R = MD (1.3233);    S = 1.2885, LW (1.2386)

 

Conclusion: towards LW (1.2386) and lower afterwards.

 

Edito 21/04 Pétrole : effondrement des cours

D’ici début mai, les signaux ATDMF devraient être en place pour anticiper un effondrement des cours du pétrole. C’est probablement un signal précurseur qui indique que la reprise économique ne sera pas au rendez-vous du second semestre. Selon cette hypothèse, « la hausse » observée sur les indices boursiers n’est pas justifiée.

Si vous souhaitez maîtriser les paramètres qui permettent de faire l’anticipation de l’effondrement des cours du pétrole et des conséquences (sur les marchés actions) qui en découlent, participez à nos formations ATDMF. 1 place est disponible pour celle du 25 au 27 avril.

Renseignements : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

Pétrole : un plus bas historique en mai ou juin (2009)

Yearly trend: more declines is not ruled out

On a yearly basis; last period, MY acted as a support but T1 and PY price failed as supports. Our stochastic is overbought and our 7 / 23 years moving averages are not bearish.

Idea: with the stochastic status, 2008 low could fail as a support.

 

Long term: towards LQ (24.9)

On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is maximal but shrinking slowly. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bearish B type crossover will develop. Stochastic and MACD are overbought. LQ (24.9) could be a target as long as MQ (69.06) proves to be a resistance.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is maximal and expending. With our 7 / 23 months moving averages, a bearish A type crossover is in progress. Our stochastic will be oversold in more than two periods.

Idea: a bearish non-crossover could develop with our stochastic.

 

Medium term (June 09 contract): new bearish T1 is expected

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is minimal. With our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages, a bearish A type crossover will develop. If UW trend increase with a close below LW, a bearish T2 could develop.

Idea: With UW / LW spread a nice ATDMF pattern could develop.

R =MW (50.42);       S = LW (44.89), 41.37, Historical Low

 

Short term (June 09 contract): not a bearish T1 (ATDMF 2008 rules)

On a daily basis, the spread UD / LD is minimal. A bearish non-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 days moving averages. A bearish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD. UD is flat. A bearish pre-parallel pattern could develop.

Idea: short with a weekly bearish T1.

R = MD (52.94);   S = LW (44.89), 41.37, Historical Low

 

 

Conclusion: a very powerful slide could develop within 2 weeks.

 

Indices : choisir son horizon d’investissement.

Lorsque vous passez au garage pour prendre de l’essence  vous précisez un montant ou un nombre de litres. Il n’est pas possible de dire je suis haussier, je suis baissier sur tel titre ou sur tel indice. …

Actuellement sur les horizons à plusieurs mois, il n’y a pas de remise en cause de la tendance baissière (graphiques annuel, trimestriel et mensuel). Sur un horizon de 2 à 5 semaines (graphique hebdomadaire) une reprise technique est en cours. Tant que notre stochastique ne sera pas suracheté, ce mouvement pourra se poursuivre. Sur un horizon à plus court terme (graphique quotidien) la hausse pourra continuer tant que notre MACD ne sera pas suracheté.

L’analyse technique management, qui consiste à utiliser les bons indicateurs au moment opportun, fait partie de l’approche  ATDMF.

Profitez des ponts de mai et juin pour vous former par groupe de 3 participants au maximum.

Le troisième jour est à ajouter aux dates mentionnées.

Formation action et indices : 9 et 10 mai, 30 et 31 mai, 13 et 14 juin, 20 et 21 juin

Formation indices / devises / futures : 2 et 3 mai, 23 et 24 mai, 6 et 7 juin et 27 et 28 juin 2009.

Les tarifs sont ceux indiqués à l’adresse :

http://analyse-technique-atdmf.fr/?p=46   à la fin de l’article.

Un suivi de 2 mois est inclus dans la formation.

 

Renseignements complémentaires et inscriptions : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr