Yearly trend: more declines is not ruled out
On a yearly basis; last period, MY acted as a support but T1 and PY price failed as supports. Our stochastic is overbought and our 7 / 23 years moving averages are not bearish.
Idea: with the stochastic status, 2008 low could fail as a support.
Long term: towards LQ (24.95)
On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is maximal but shrinking slowly. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bearish B type crossover will develop. Stochastic and MACD are overbought. LQ (24.95) could be a target as long as MQ (69.07) proves to be a resistance.
On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is maximal and expending. With our 7 / 23 months moving averages, a bearish A type crossover is in progress. Our stochastic will be oversold in more than two periods.
Idea: a bearish non-crossover could develop with our stochastic.
Medium term (June 09 contract): new bearish T1 is expected
On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is minimal. With our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages, next pattern will be a bearish A type crossover. If UW trend increase with a close below LW, a bearish T2 could develop.
Idea: With UW / LW spread a nice ATDMF pattern could develop.
R =UW (51.55); S = PW (42.51), 41.37, Historical Low
Short term (June 09 contract): lower
On a daily basis, as long as MD (51.56) proves to be a resistance, the status for our MACD could be a bearish non-crossover.
Idea: short with a weekly bearish T1.
R = MD (51.56); S = LD (48), PW (42.51), 41.37, Historical Low
Conclusion: a weekly bearish ATDMF pattern is not ruled out.