Archives mensuelles : octobre 2008

La BCE pourrait continuer à baisser ses taux. (9/10/2008)

Editorial

 

Une nouvelle baisse de 50 centimes pourrait intervenir dans les prochains jours. Cela sera-t-il suffisant pour arrêter la baisse des marchés boursiers. Il est légitime d’en douter vu la cacophonie qui règne…

 

Contrat 3 mois Euribor

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Le texte suivant est traduisible à l’aide de Yahoo Babelfish

 

Long term: bearish

On a monthly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages is a bearish A type crossover. Stochastic could be oversold next period. A close above MM (95.576) is not ruled out.

Idea: choppy

 

Medium term: rise

On a weekly basis, the spread UW / LW was minimal last week when a close occurred above MW. The status for our 7 / 23 moving averages is a bullish A type crossover. A bullish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD. With the monthly trend, no bull ATDMF pattern could develop. As long as our daily MACD is not overbought, the rise will continue.

Idea: rise as long as our weekly MACD is not overbought.

 

Short term: new bullish parallels pattern?

On a daily basis, the dynamic for our Bollinger bands is strong. Today, a bullish parallel pattern will develop if:  bullish crossover PD / MD + a strong dynamic for each Bollinger band.

Idea: PM (96.172) is our main resistance.

 

Conclusion: Central Banks could act again.

 

 

 

Financial Futures (2/10/2008)

Editorial,

Aucune tendance ne se dégage sur les contrats de Financial Futures. La cacophonie au plus haut niveau de l’Europe et aux USA n’incite pas à prendre un risque…

 

Contrat Euro-Bund

 

Le texte suivant est traduisible à l’aide de Yahoo Babelfish.

 

Long term: flat

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. Bollinger bands are flat. A bearish B type crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. MQ (116.25) is our main resistance.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is near its minimal level. With our 7 / 23 moving averages, a bearish non-crossover is in progress. Our stochastic and MACD are neutral. UM (116.94) is our main resistance. MM (113.77) is our first support and MW (112.7) is the next one.

Idea: neutral.

           

Medium term: higher but not yet bullish

On a weekly basis, the spread UW / LW is not minimal. The status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is a bullish B type crossover. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bullish non-crossover. UM (116.94) is our main target.

Idea: bullish pre-parallel pattern

 

Short term: flat

On a daily basis, the spread UD / LD is wide and expending very slowly. As long as MD (114.6) proves to be a support, a rise could develop.

Idea: UD (116.02) could be an objective.

 

Conclusion: PM (117.96) is a strong resistance.

 

Achat de put (24/9/2008)

Editorial,

Précédemment,  nous indiquions que les positions de vente à découvert présentaient des risques sur les actions / indices. Dans un premier temps, ce n’est pas le cas sur les contrats de financial futures. Les cours du contrat Eurodollar à 3 mois et Euribor semblent pouvoir baisser fortement dans un proche avenir. L’achat de put est donc envisageable.

 

Contrat 3 mois Euribor.

Long term: bearish

 

 

On a monthly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages is a bearish A type crossover. Stochastic and MACD are overbought. Like a bearish parallels pattern is in progress.

Idea: lower for some months.

 

Medium term: bearish ATDMF pattern?

On a weekly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 moving averages is a bearish non-crossover. Our MACD could be overbought next week. The spread UW / LW is very thin. With a close below LW, a strong dynamic for each Bollinger band will develop. Within two weeks, a bearish ATDMF pattern will develop.

Idea: more bearish than Eurodollar contract.

 

Short term: bearish

On a daily basis, the dynamic for our Bollinger bands is very strong. A bearish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages. Below LW (94.572), a collapse is likely.

Idea: too early to be short but…

 Conclusion: very bearish on a medium term basis if LW (94.572) fails as a support.

  

Financial Futures : calme (11/9/2008)

Editorial

Les contrats de taux ne présentent actuellement aucun attrait. Les fluctuations de cours sont faibles et aucun mouvement significatif n’est envisageable pour les prochains jours. La dynamique d’évolution entre les taux américains et européens milite pour un redressement de l’€.

 

Contrat €-Bund

Le texte suivant est traduisible à l’aide de Yahoo Babelfish.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Long term: flat

 

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. Bollinger bands are flat. A bearish B type crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. MQ (116.45) is our main resistance.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is near its minimal level. With our 7 / 23 moving averages, a bearish non-crossover is in progress. Our stochastic and MACD are neutral. UW (117.06) is our main resistance.

Idea: less bullish tan 10 Y T-Notes

           

Medium term: rise

On a weekly basis, the spread UW / LW is maximal. The status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is a bullish B type crossover. As long as our stochastic is not overbought, the rise will continue. UW (115.68) is a strong resistance.

Idea: toppish.

 

Short term: flat

On a daily basis, the spread UD / LD is minimal. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover. The status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages is a bullish non-crossover. UW (115.68) is our main resistance. LD (113.79) is a strong support.

 Idea: no strong trend.

 

Conclusion: toppish on a medium term basis.

 

Impératif : prendre position(s) (29/5/2008)

Editorial,

Votre approche de l’analyse technique / votre courtier vous prépare t’il à prendre une position à la baisse aujourd’hui sur les contrats du 10 year T-Note et sur le contrat Eurodollar 3 mois ? Si ce n’est pas le cas, il est temps de se poser des questions. A l’aide de l’ATDMF, les plus beaux signaux (identiques à celui sur le USD – CHF du 27/02/08) pour prendre une position, peuvent être observés ce jour. La condition nécessaire et suffisante : un nouveau point bas sur ces deux contrats Vs la séance du 28 mai : 112.60 pour le 10Y et 96.13 pour l’Eurodollar.

Rappelons que ces deux contrats sont les indicateurs majeurs, sur une base mondiale, du comportement des autres marchés financiers (expliqué et enseigné lors de nos formations à l’ATDMF 2007). Rater un retournement de tendance de ces deux contrats est une faute professionnelle majeure pour un analyste technique (il sera intéressant d’étudier les réactions des économistes).

Vous souhaitez faire rapidement des plus-values importantes ? Focalisez-vous et vivez avec les contrats 10 Y T Note et Eurodollar 3 mois (aucun risque de squeeze vu les montants traités chaque jour –contrats futures et options). Avec l’ATDMF, vous aurez une longueur d’avance sur les marchés. Contact : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

Vu l’impact très négatif sur l’immobilier (…), ne comptez pas sur vos journaux  pour promouvoir ces mouvements.

 

Contrats  Futures US


 

Le texte suivant est traduisible à l’aide de Yahoo Babel Fish.

 

10Year T-Note

 

Long term: T2, on a quarter basis, is unlikely

On a yearly basis, the status for our MACD is a bearish non-crossover. The status for our 7 / 2 3 years moving averages is a bullish non-crossover but the dynamic will be less bullish. UY is flat. Now, MY (107.98) is our next target.

On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is minimal. Bollinger bands diverged at the end of Q1 with a close above UQ. Now, UQ and LQ are flat. The status for our stochastic and MACD could be overbought at the end of this year. Next period, the pattern for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages could be a bullish B type crossover. As long as UQ 116.82) act as a resistance this time frame is without trend.

On a monthly basis, the trend for our 7 months moving averages will be toppish. A bullish crossover PM / MM is in progress without a divergence between UM and LM. A technical decline could develop towards PM (111.1).

Idea: on a monthly basis, use parallels rules.

 

Medium term: not bearish, but a strong decline

On a weekly basis, the spread UW / LW is not minimal but a close below LW is expected with a strong dynamic for each Bollinger band. The status for our  7 / 23 weeks moving averages is a bearish A type crossover (end of this week). A bearish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD.MM (110.53) is our first target.

Idea: nothing to do (see monthly trend)

 

Short term: bearish T2 today

 

On a daily basis, with a new low today (below 112.6) all rules will be in hand to have a bearish T2.

Idea: don’t forget a stop-loss with your short position.

 

Conclusion: opportunity of the year for Future lovers with a daily T2.

 

 

 

Eurodollar contract (September 08 contract)

 

 

 

Long term: less bullish

On a yearly basis, a bullish non-crossover occurred between prices and PY (3 and 2 periods ago). This pattern is very bullish.

On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is wide but shrinking very slowly. Stochastic and MACD are oversold without a bullish dynamic. The dynamic for our 7 quarters moving average is strongly up. Prices will stabilize.

On a monthly basis (September 08 contract) the trend for our 7 months moving averages is toppish. A bullish crossover PM / MM is in progress with a technical decline for prices. MM (95.67) is our next objective.

Idea: bearish correction on the monthly chart.

 

Medium term: lower

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal but the spread is increasing strongly with our next close below LW. Current status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is a weak bearish A type crossover. A bearish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic. MM (95.67) is our first objective.

Idea: below MM without a bear trend.

 

Short term: lower

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is minimal (not really true). With a new low (below 96.14), a nice bearish T2 will develop.

Idea: don’t forget your stop-loss.

 

Conclusion: lower (new medium bear trend???)

BCE : pas de baisse => € fort (de + en +) (24/4/2008)

Editorial

Tout va pour le mieux (pour ceux qui ont suivi nos conseils de la semaine dernière). Il n’est pas trop tard pour profiter de la situation : les spreads taux $ / € vont encore augmenter. La baisse des taux de la BCE n’est pas vraiment anticipée par les opérateurs.

 

Contrats de taux à 3 mois (US et Euro)

 

Le texte suivant est traduisible à l’aide de Yahoo Babelfish.

 

Contrat Eurodollar 3 mois (June 2008)

 

Long term: less bullish

On a yearly basis, a bullish non-crossover occurred between prices and PY (3 and 2 periods ago). This pattern is very bullish.

On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is wide but shrinking. Stochastic and MACD are oversold. The dynamic for our 7 quarters moving average is strongly up. Next target could be 98.255 (2008 high).

On a monthly basis (June 08 contract); for our 7 / 23 months moving averages, the dynamic is up. A bullish crossover PM / MM is in progress. If LM is down by month’s end, the pattern will be a bullish parallels one. Otherwise the pattern will be a bullish bubble.

Idea: technical correction on a monthly chart.

 

Medium term: lower?

On a weekly basis, MW failed as a support. A bearish B type crossover is not ruled out with our 7 /23 weeks moving averages. Below 96.985 (last week low), our next target is LW (96.03).

Idea: below 96.985?

 

Short term: decline

On a daily basis, a bearish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages. The spread UD / LD was not minimal when a close below LD occurred. Weekly chart is not bearish. A decline is in progress. As long as our MACD is not oversold, this move will continue.

Idea: 96.895 is our main support.

 

Conclusion: see our medium term analysis.

 

Contrat Euribor 3 mois (June 2008).

 

Long term: bearish

On a monthly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages is a bearish non-crossover. Stochastic is overbought and it will be the same status for MACD at the end of April.

Idea: lower for some months.

 

Medium term: bear trend

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide but increasing. Our indicators are bearish. No recovery is expected within one month.

Idea: lower without technical recovery.

 

Short term: bearish parallels pattern

On a daily basis, a bearish parallels pattern is in progress. The dynamic for each indicator is strong.

Idea: use bearish parallels pattern rules.

 

Conclusion: Very bullish for € Vs $.

 

 

Signal Historique (base multi annuelles) (27/3/2008)

 

 

Editorial,

 

Sur le 10 Y T-Note un signal d’amplification de la hausse des cours (T2) est envisageable au début du mois d’avril. Ceci indiquerait un « fly to quality » sur une base long terme et un signal supplémentaire que Q2 = Q1 (voir notre éditorial de hier). Toutes les analyses semblent indiquer que le prochain trimestre devrait être Historique (sur une base séculaire).

Rappelons que l’ATDMF est la technique la plus appropriée pour anticiper et profiter des mouvements violents sur les marchés financiers. Comparez nos analyses et celles publiées par les autres.  

Contrat 10 Y T-Notes

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Le texte suivant est traduisible à l’aide de Yahoo Babelfish.

 

 

 

Long term: T1 on a quarter basis

On a yearly basis, our stochastic is oversold. The status for our 7 / 2 3 years moving averages is a bullish non-crossover. 120.44 is our first target and 123.59 (Historical high) is the next one.

On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is minimal. Bollinger bands will diverge at the end of Q1 with a close above UQ. The status for our stochastic and MACD is oversold. The pattern for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages will turn into a bullish A type crossover next period. Our next pattern is a bullish ATDMF 2007 pattern.

On a monthly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 moving averages is a bullish A type crossover. The spread UM / LM was minimal with a nice dynamic for each Bollinger band when they began to diverge. A bullish non-crossover is in progress with our Stochastic and MACD. A bullish parallels pattern is in progress.

Idea: T2 on a quarterly basis in early April.

 

Medium term: bullish

On a weekly basis, our 7 weeks moving average is up and the trend will improve in April. The next status for stochastic and MACD could be a bullish non-crossover. The ATDMF pattern is a bullish parallels one.

Idea: Use parallels rules.

 

Short term: bullish parallels pattern

ryer. st (22a, urice.yernault@skynet.be;frdg@skynet.be;mercier@skynet.be;annie.finfe@tiscali.be;colombana.jose

On a daily basis, a bullish parallels pattern is in progress. MD acted as a support. Early next week, the status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages could be a bullish non-crossover. UD (120.17) will be our next objective.

Idea: => use parallels rules

 

Conclusion: with a quarterly T2, a collapse in equities is not ruled out.

 

USD : encore (+) de volatilité => fin année (10/9/2008)

 

Editorial,

D’ici fin septembre, la tendance du dollar (pour les trois prochains mois) sera fixée. Ce qu’il est déjà possible de retenir : la forte volatilité va se poursuivre. Priorité est donc donnée aux opérations de trading. L’ATDMF permet d’anticiper et d’accompagner ces mouvements intra-day aussi bien sur les indices (Dax et CAC 40) que sur les devises. De nombreux opérateurs tant professionnels que particuliers en profitent tous les jours.

 

Dollar –Franc Suisse.

Le texte suivant est traduisible à l’aide de Yahoo Babel fish.


 

Long term: technical recovery

 On a yearly basis, our indicators are bearish. MY (1.3753) is a strong resistance.

On a quarterly basis, a bullish divergence could develop with our stochastic and MACD. With this hypothesis, PQ (1.2778) could be an objective if MQ (1.2089) fails as a resistance. But, as long as Q7 is bearish, the main trend is bearish.

On a monthly basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress. If MM (1.1313, at the end of the month) fails as a resistance, MQ (1.2089) will be our next target.

Idea: weekly chart is higher for 2 weeks or more.

 

Medium term: bullish Australian pattern

On a weekly basis, a weekly bullish Australian pattern is in progress. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise will continue.

Idea: bullish as long as M7 is up.

 

Short term: rise?

On a daily basis, the spread UD / LD is minimal. LD is flat. Our stochastic is not oversold. Below MD (1.1019), LD (1.0806) is our next objective.

Idea: LD (1.0806) is a strong support.

 

Conclusion: not so bullish on a weekly basis.

 

Une opération qui devrait être rentable (27/2/2008)

 

 

La pression sur le USD est sensible en ce début de matinée. Ceci signifie que les opérateurs qui travaillent en orient sont restés short d’USD avant de terminer leur journée. Nul doute que le mouvement pourrait se poursuivre tout le long de la journée en Europe et aux USA.

L’USD / CHF devrait être le couple le plus prometteur.

A noter que toutes les personnes qui suivent notre formation de base sur les devises sont, à la fin de ce stage,  en mesure de faire cette analyse et de mettre en pratique les prévisions faites.

 

USD / CHF

 

Le texte suivant est traduisible à l’aide de Babelfish  de Yahoo.

 

Long term: quarterly bearish T2 in progress

 On a yearly basis, our indicators are bearish. LY (1.056) is only our first support.

On a quarterly basis, a bearish non-crossover is in progress with our 7 – 23 quarters moving averages. Our stochastic and our MACD are overbought. A bearish T2 occurred (no divergence for UQ but we don’t short this market on a quarterly basis).

On a monthly basis, the spread UM – LM was minimal and increasing when a close occurred below LM. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover. With our 7 – 23 months moving averages, the dynamic of the bear trend is strong. PM crossed MM + a strong divergence between UM and LM. The pattern is a bearish Australian one. As long as MM (1.1974) acts as a resistance, the main trend will be bearish.

Idea: lower for some months

 

Medium term: bearish

On a weekly basis, the pattern with Bollinger bands is like a bearish pre-parallels one (since early September 07). As long as MW (1.1202) acts as a resistance, the bear trend will continue.

Idea: with our 7 weeks moving average trend, LW (1.0666) will be a weak support.

 

Short term: bearish ATDMF 2007 pattern

On a daily basis; with a new low today (below 1.0698), a bearish ATDMF pattern will develop.

Idea: short below 1.0698.

 

Conclusion: towards MD (1.0938) if 1.0698 acts as a support.

Achat !!! (8/10/2008)

 

Editorial

 

Toutes les règles utilisées pour pratiquer l’ATDMF se vérifient au quotidien. Aucune adaptation de la méthode n’est nécessaire pour faire face à la situation actuelle et pour anticiper l’évolution prochaine (à court, moyen et long terme) des marchés. Il serait peut-être utile de s’en rendre compte et d’arrêter de pleurnicher sur l’imprévisibilité de la situation actuelle. Ces règles sont celles utilisées en Juillet 2001 pour anticiper (1) le plongeon des bourses qui a suivi les attentats du 11 septembre.

Actuellement, ceux qui se plaignent se sont ceux qui ne comprennent rien aux marchés financiers ou qui ont de mauvais outils. Il est rare de trouver une période qui présente autant d’opportunités pour faire de plus –values considérables en si peu de temps. Bien entendu il faut utiliser un money management compatible avec la situation actuelle. C’est le ba ba  de la gestion.

Nous avons l’embarras du choix pour se porter acheteur de Put (s) sur l’€ contre le Yen ou le CHF. Cette semaine, l’achat de Put sur AUD / USD semble également prometteur.

 

(1) Revue de l’AFATE (juillet 2001), boursorama (31/08/2001), réunion AFTE (12/09/2001)

              

 

AUD / USD.

 

 

 

Le texte suivant est traduisible à l’aide de Yahoo Babelfish.

 

Long term: below LQ (0.6609)?

On a quarterly basis, our stochastic and MACD are overbought. Bollinger bands spread is minimal. LQ (0.6609) is our first objective.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is maximal but expending. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages a bearish A type crossover will be in progress in 09. LQ could fail as a support. Next objective will be LY (0.5363).

Idea: bearish trend for 09.

 

Medium term: bearish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis; a bearish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic and our MACD. A bearish crossover PW / MW occurred and Bollinger band spread is always increasing.

Idea: very strong bearish trend.

 

Short term: bearish lrt term: no trend965Y (1.4243amilliales) enance personnelle.tellis

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is increasing. As long as our MACD is not oversold, the bear trend will continue or amplify.

Idea: buy Put

 

Conclusion: lower = buy Put